519 E Sun Oil Rd · Hay, MI 48624

$179,777

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,076 sqft · SingleFamily · 78 Days on market

0.26 ac lot $167/sqft · 62% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience Lakeside Living at Its Finest! Welcome to your beautifully updated waterfront retreat on stunning Smallwood Lake! Perfectly positioned on the main body of the lake, this well-maintained home offers breathtaking panoramic views and a front-row seat to all the lakefront action. When the lake returns to its full level, you'll enjoy a sandy bottom shoreline—ideal for swimming, wading, and lakeside fun. Inside, the home boasts a host of recent upgrades, including brand-new kitchen cabinetry and countertops, updated flooring throughout, fresh drywall and doors, a new refrigerator, and even a newer roof. Step outside to find a newly installed seawall and dock boards, making this property truly turn-key. Cozy up in front of the gas log fireplace, or relax on the lakeside and watch the boats drift by. The home comes mostly furnished and includes all appliances—just bring your suitcase and start enjoying lake life today! Take a VIRTUAL TOUR: https://idx. paradym.com/idx/4922492 (((There are 2 Waterfront Parcels included)))

Key facts

• Updated flooring
• Waterfront retreat
• 0.26 acre lot

Tags

• WATERFRONT RETREAT
• STUNNING SMALLWOOD LAKE
• BREATHTAKING PANORAMIC VIEWS
• SANDY BOTTOM SHORELINE
• NEW KITCHEN CABINETRY
• UPDATED FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $580 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Gladwin Community Schools (town): math 28% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #232 of 540 in MI (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Gladwin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gladwin County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $168,990 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.82%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $110,936
• List price: $179,777
• Delta: 62.06%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
542 Silver St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+2%)	5mo	$92,000	$84	69
620 Bushong Beach Dr	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-7%)	13mo	$100,000	$100	62
591 E SUN OIL Rd	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,176 (+9%)	10mo	$200,000	$170	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $7,741
• Equity at exit: $26,805

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $54,057
• Equity at exit: $15,544

Cash invested: $50,338 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48624

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,120 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $924/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $580

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,386

Max offer price $179,777

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,944
• Closing costs: $5,393
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,777 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,777 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,777 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,777 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,777 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $179,777 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,777 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,777 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,777 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $179,777 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $184,998 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $184,998 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $184,998 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,998 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,998 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    historical Accepting Backup Offers 1052-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1052 chars)

    Experience Lakeside Living at Its Finest! Welcome to your beautifully updated waterfront retreat on stunning Smallwood Lake! Perfectly positioned on the main body of the lake, this well-maintained home offers breathtaking panoramic views and a front-row seat to all the lakefront action. When the lake returns to its full level, you'll enjoy a sandy bottom shoreline—ideal for swimming, wading, and lakeside fun. Inside, the home boasts a host of recent upgrades, including brand-new kitchen cabinetry and countertops, updated flooring throughout, fresh drywall and doors, a new refrigerator, and even a newer roof. Step outside to find a newly installed seawall and dock boards, making this property truly turn-key. Cozy up in front of the gas log fireplace, or relax on the lakeside and watch the boats drift by. The home comes mostly furnished and includes all appliances—just bring your suitcase and start enjoying lake life today! Take a VIRTUAL TOUR: https://idx. paradym.com/idx/4922492 (((There are 2 Waterfront Parcels included)))

17. 2026-04-01
    listed $184,998 Active 1052-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1052 chars)

    Experience Lakeside Living at Its Finest! Welcome to your beautifully updated waterfront retreat on stunning Smallwood Lake! Perfectly positioned on the main body of the lake, this well-maintained home offers breathtaking panoramic views and a front-row seat to all the lakefront action. When the lake returns to its full level, you'll enjoy a sandy bottom shoreline—ideal for swimming, wading, and lakeside fun. Inside, the home boasts a host of recent upgrades, including brand-new kitchen cabinetry and countertops, updated flooring throughout, fresh drywall and doors, a new refrigerator, and even a newer roof. Step outside to find a newly installed seawall and dock boards, making this property truly turn-key. Cozy up in front of the gas log fireplace, or relax on the lakeside and watch the boats drift by. The home comes mostly furnished and includes all appliances—just bring your suitcase and start enjoying lake life today! Take a VIRTUAL TOUR: https://idx. paradym.com/idx/4922492 (((There are 2 Waterfront Parcels included)))

18. 2025-09-10
    historical
19. 2025-05-17
    listed $169,917 Active
20. 2010-12-20
    listed $65,900
21. 2009-12-14
    historical
22. 2009-01-13
    listed $145,000
23. 2008-11-26
    historical
24. 2007-11-26
    listed $149,900
25. 2005-09-07
    soldstatus $154,900
26. 2005-05-08
    listed $154,900
27. 2005-01-06
    historical
28. 2004-07-06
    listed $154,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $924 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,846 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: +$922/yr (+$77/mo · 99.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,436
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,070
• − Property taxes: −$924
• − Insurance: −$899
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,035
• − Management: −$2,035
• − Depreciation: −$5,230
• Taxable income: $4,243
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,018
• After-tax cash flow: $5,940/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gladwin Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2615990
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,917
• Composite: 32.93/100
• National rank: #5595
• State rank: #232 of 540 in MI

Livability — Hay

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,269

Population outlook (Gladwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,440 people
• By 2030: 22,281 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 19,867 · -15.2%
• By 2050: 17,667 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 12,909 · -44.9%
• By 2100: 8,629 · -63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gladwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.7) · D 29.1% · R 69.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.2pp toward R · 2008: 1.5pp · 2024: -40.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.7 2020: R+36.8 2016: R+34.7 2012: R+7.2 2008: D+1.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.67%
• Current HPI: 238.0744
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+19.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $184,998 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-09-10 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-05-17 Listed $169,917 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-12-20 Listed $65,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-12-14 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-01-13 Listed $145,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-11-26 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-11-26 Listed $149,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $154,900 Public Records
• 2005-05-08 Listed $154,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-01-06 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-07-06 Listed $154,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $924 · -46.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.