Plan 2566 Plan · Saint Cloud, FL 34772

$423,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,566 sqft · SingleFamily · 70 Days on market

Excellent condition 2-car garage

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Cash flow +3.5/30.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* Open kitchen overlooking great room * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Powder bath * Large secondary bedrooms * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Stainless steel appliance package * Spacious great room * Spacious laundry room * Expansive primary suite * Open floor plan * Den * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Convenient to downtown * Near beautiful lakes * Planned swimming pool * Planned tot lot * Planned cabana * Outdoor recreation nearby

Key facts

• Den
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 69 days

Tags

• SPACIOUS LAUNDRY ROOM
• DEN
• ENERGY STAR CERTIFIED HOME

🏗️ New construction. The $423,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $559,844.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $424k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $316k (25.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (34.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $276k (34.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 3.6% in Saint Cloud — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hickory Tree Elementary School (math 64% / reading 59%, grade B, #634 of 2,144 statewide, top 30%, 795 students, 48% FRL); St. Cloud Middle School (math 52% / reading 50%, grade C, #237 of 571 statewide, top 43%, 1,229 students, 60% FRL); Harmony High School (math 40% / reading 46%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,822 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 1112 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($399k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $276,182 (34.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.49% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.92%
• DSCR: 0.43
• GRM: 16.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $559,844
• List price: $423,990
• Delta: -24.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3772 Moon Dancer Pl	1.47mi	4/2.5	2,541 (-1%)	2mo	$435,000	$171	62
4272 LA Salle Ave	1.27mi	4/2.5	2,582 (+1%)	5mo	$739,999	$287	60
4561 Henry J Ave	0.94mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,486 (-3%)	2mo	$825,000	$332	51
3894 Wind Dancer Cir	1.41mi	4/3.0	2,662 (+4%)	11mo	$435,000	$163	48
3893 Wind Dancer Cir	1.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,434 (-5%)	10mo	$435,000	$179	43
3924 Crosley Ave	1.11mi	4/3.0	2,062 (-20%)	0mo	$410,000	$199	38
4445 Mildred Bass Rd	1.04mi	4/2.0	2,052 (-20%)	1mo	$440,000	$214	37
3884 Wind Dancer Cir	1.47mi	4/2.0	1,979 (-23%)	3mo	$350,000	$177	36
4091 Lippman Rd	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,218 (-14%)	10mo	$635,000	$286	36
3759 Moon Dancer Pl	1.39mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,847 (+11%)	8mo	$420,000	$148	35
3820 Forest Cir	1.37mi	4/2.5	2,112 (-18%)	8mo	$470,000	$223	33
4470 Henry J Ave	0.75mi	4/4.5	3,206 (+25%)	5mo	$1,005,000	$313	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -41.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-200,062
• Equity at exit: $83,475

10-year hold

• IRR: -72.9%
• Equity multiple: -1.04×
• Total profit: $-320,221
• Equity at exit: $48,405

Cash invested: $156,756 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 38 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 114.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $445,615 ($188/sqft)
• Median days on market: 58 d
• This list price: 29% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +16.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34772

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 1112
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,762 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,936
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$700 /mo · $8,398/yr
• Insurance: −$233
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$580
• Net cashflow: $-1,687

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,897

Max offer price $315,715

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,300	-5% $-1,494	+0% $-1,687	+5% $-1,881	+10% $-2,074
Rent	-10% $-1,905	-5% $-1,796	+0% $-1,687	+5% $-1,578	+10% $-1,469
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,405	-0.5pp $-1,545	base $-1,687	+0.5pp $-1,832	+1.0pp $-1,980

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $139,961
• Closing costs: $16,795
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 1195 Silver Spring Aly, Saint Cloud FL 34772Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price: $423,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Plan 2566)
• Construction: Built as part of a new-home plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2566New construction

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open floor plan (new construction plan)Plan name: Plan 2566

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $423,990 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $423,990 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $423,990 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $423,990 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $423,990 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $423,990 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $423,990 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $423,990 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $423,990 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $423,990 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $423,990 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $423,990 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $423,990 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $423,990 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $423,990 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $423,990 Active 49 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $423,990 Active 48 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $423,990 Active 47 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $423,990 Active 46 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $423,990 Active 45 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $423,990 Active 44 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $423,990 Active 43 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $423,990 Active 42 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $423,990 Active 41 DOM
25. 2026-07-10
    days on market $423,990 Active 40 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $423,990 Active 38 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $423,990 Active 37 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $423,990 Active 36 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $423,990 Active 34 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $423,990 Active 33 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $423,990 Active 32 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $423,990 Active 31 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $423,990 Active 30 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $423,990 Active 29 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $423,990 Active 28 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $423,990 Active 27 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $423,990 Active 25 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $423,990 Active 23 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $423,990 Active 22 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $423,990 Active 19 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $423,990 Active 18 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $423,990 Active 17 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $423,990 Active 16 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $423,990 Active 14 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $423,990 Active 13 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $423,990 Active 10 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $423,990 Active 9 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $423,990 Active 8 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $423,990 Active 5 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $423,990 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,142
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,360
• − Property taxes: −$8,398
• − Insurance: −$2,799
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,651
• − Management: −$2,651
• − Depreciation: −$16,286
• Taxable loss: −$31,004
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,441
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,804/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a great opportunity for an investor to add value through minor updates and modernization.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home automation — Improves energy efficiency and adds modern convenience ↑
• Both Add smart thermostat — Enhances energy efficiency and adds modern convenience ↑
• Both Install smart security system — Enhances safety and adds modern convenience ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 52/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Canoe Creek K-8 B FL #653/2,144 Nat'l #6,943/41,679 Middle St. Cloud Middle School C FL #237/571 Nat'l #3,276/14,009 High Harmony High School F FL #255/667 Nat'l #7,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

Livability — Saint Cloud

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Osceola County · 447,624 people
• City population: 106,667
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,390
• Household income: $97,868
• Rent vs Own: 17.2% rent · 82.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

---

Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 19% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 20% Cuban 2% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 36% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -132.55%
• Current HPI: 274.6517
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.30%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 1195 Silver Spring Aly, Saint Cloud FL 34772Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price: $423,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Plan 2566)
• Construction: Built as part of a new-home plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2566New construction

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open floor plan (new construction plan)Plan name: Plan 2566