1633 River Rd · Goodrich, TX 77335

$139,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,640 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1978 1.97 ac lot $53/sqft · 58% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

ust under 2 acres of peaceful, wooded land ready for your next project. Surrounded by mature trees, this property offers the perfect setting to build your dream home. The current structure is not livable and will need to be removed, but a garage and existing slab are already in place—saving you time and money. Priced at land value, this is a great opportunity to secure a spacious lot and create something truly your own.

Key facts

• Garage
• Spacious lot
• Wooded land

Tags

• WOODED LAND
• MATURE TREES
• GARAGE
• SPACIOUS LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $99 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (3.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.8% in Goodrich — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,053 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Livingston ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #459 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $139k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,829 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.92%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $329,083
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: -57.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1633 River Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	2,640 (0%)	1mo	$139,000	$53	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $23,085
• Equity at exit: $62,500

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $73,383
• Equity at exit: $96,321

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77335

• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,348 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $647/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,223

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 429-char remark

   Show marketing remark (429 chars)

   ust under 2 acres of peaceful, wooded land ready for your next project. Surrounded by mature trees, this property offers the perfect setting to build your dream home. The current structure is not livable and will need to be removed, but a garage and existing slab are already in place—saving you time and money. Priced at land value, this is a great opportunity to secure a spacious lot and create something truly your own.

2. 2026-03-25
   listed $139,000 Active 429-char remark

   Show marketing remark (429 chars)

   ust under 2 acres of peaceful, wooded land ready for your next project. Surrounded by mature trees, this property offers the perfect setting to build your dream home. The current structure is not livable and will need to be removed, but a garage and existing slab are already in place—saving you time and money. Priced at land value, this is a great opportunity to secure a spacious lot and create something truly your own.

3. 2025-10-31
   historical
4. 2025-08-12
   price $140,000
5. 2025-07-23
   listed $150,000 Active
6. 2025-07-23
   historical
7. 2025-05-06
   price $155,000
8. 2025-05-06
   status Active
9. 2025-04-30
   status Pending
10. 2025-04-04
    listed $160,000 Active
11. 2018-04-12
    soldstatus
12. 2003-09-15
    soldstatus $88,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $647 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,544 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,897/yr (+$158/mo · 293.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone A · 58% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,179
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$647
• − Insurance: −$2,198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,294
• − Management: −$1,294
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$1,083
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$260
• After-tax cash flow: $1,450/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827780
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,531
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5767
• State rank: #459 of 826 in TX

Livability — Goodrich

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1053
• US rank: #18692

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,945

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 16% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+58.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $139,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-23 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-06 Price Changed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-06 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-04-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-04-04 Listed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2018-04-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-13.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $647 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.