133 N Baldwin Street St · Johnson City, NY 13790

$55,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 897 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1910 4,800 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.9/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

REO-owned bank foreclosure. Being sold as-is.

Key facts

• 4,800 sq ft lot
• Built 1910
• Listed 55 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $556 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.4% vs local median 6.4% in Johnson City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#238 in NY, #3,739 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Johnson City Central School District (suburban): math 38% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Johnson City Elementary/Primary School (496 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.5%/yr); 101 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 340 units permitted in Broome County in 2024 (269 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Broome County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.0% of price; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $53,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.33%
• DSCR: 2.93
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $130,962
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
133 N Baldwin Street St	0.00mi	3/1.0	897 (0%)	0mo	$40,000	$45	100
112 Jay St	0.22mi	3/1.0	882 (-2%)	5mo	$135,000	$153	83
120 N Harrison St N	0.04mi	3/1.0	962 (+7%)	9mo	$151,063	$157	79
25 N Harrison St	0.24mi	3/1.0	926 (+3%)	6mo	$135,000	$146	78
160 N Harrison St	0.07mi	2/1.0 (-1)	901 (+0%)	16mo	$103,000	$114	78
97 Jay St	0.20mi	3/1.0	960 (+7%)	9mo	$61,000	$64	71
64 N Baldwin St	0.15mi	3/1.0	972 (+8%)	18mo	$126,000	$130	64
40 Jay St	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	975 (+9%)	8mo	$120,000	$123	61
49 Academy St	0.13mi	2/1.0 (-1)	804 (-10%)	17mo	$132,500	$165	58
64 Virginia Ave	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	825 (-8%)	8mo	$146,000	$177	51
5 Mills Pl	0.56mi	3/1.0	958 (+7%)	20mo	$141,000	$147	46
52 Albert St	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	992 (+11%)	3mo	$122,000	$123	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 62.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.71×
• Total profit: $72,479
• Equity at exit: $49,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.9%
• Equity multiple: 14.19×
• Total profit: $203,161
• Equity at exit: $106,853

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13790

• Home prices YoY: 6.8%
• Rents YoY: 9.5%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,329 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$182 /mo · $2,186/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $556

Break-even live

Break-even rent $625

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $587	-5% $572	+0% $556	+5% $540	+10% $525
Rent	-10% $451	-5% $504	+0% $556	+5% $609	+10% $661
Rate	-1.0pp $584	-0.5pp $570	base $556	+0.5pp $542	+1.0pp $527

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
263 Main St Unit 2 Johnson City, NY	2.0	2.0	850	$1,399	$1.65	22d	1	0.60mi
11 Avenue A Unit 3L Johnson City, NY	2.0	1.0	651	$1,250	$1.92	22d	1	0.73mi
79 Saint Charles St Apt 3 Johnson City, NY	3.0	1.0	793	$1,340	$1.69	14d	1	0.75mi
143 Harrison St Unit 2 Johnson City, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	14d	1	0.89mi
155 Willow St Unit 3 Johnson City, NY	2.0	1.0	739	$1,200	$1.62	22d	1	0.93mi
207 Saint Charles St #2 Johnson City, NY	2.0	1.0	925	$1,250	$1.35	22d	1	1.03mi
11 Dayton St Apt 5 Johnson City, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	14d	1	1.08mi
145 Floral Ave Unit 4 Johnson City, NY	3.0	1.0	1095	$1,250	$1.14	22d	1	1.10mi
35 Dayton St Unit 2 Johnson City, NY	2.0	1.0	648	$1,000	$1.54	14d	1	1.15mi
127 Burbank Ave Unit 2 Johnson City, NY	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,000	$0.97	22d	1	1.24mi
1035 Anna Maria Dr Johnson City, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$2,130	$2.94	14d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-01-30
   soldstatus $370,000
2. 2025-12-02
   status Pending
3. 2025-11-13
   price $55,000
4. 2025-10-08
   listed $65,000 Active
5. 2022-01-28
   soldstatus $120,000
6. 2011-08-17
   soldstatus $13,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,186 · $182/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,186 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥94°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,942
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$2,186
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,275
• − Management: −$1,275
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $6,250
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,500
• After-tax cash flow: $5,172/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnson City Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615900
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $40,514
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5545
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Johnson City

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #238
• US rank: #3739

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Johnson City, NY
• County: Broome County · 126,805 people
• City population: 18,739
• Metro: Binghamton, NY
• Population (ZIP): 18,739
• Household income: $59,045
• Rent vs Own: 44.8% rent · 55.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1233.0

Population outlook (Broome County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 187,989 people
• By 2030: 183,066 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 172,228 · -8.4%
• By 2050: 163,161 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 153,641 · -18.3%
• By 2100: 140,851 · -25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Asian 8% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Broome

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 49.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.0pp · 2024: 0.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.4 2020: D+3.5 2016: R+3.7 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+8.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.06%
• Current HPI: 285.3668
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.47%
• Metro: Binghamton, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+2746.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $370,000 Public Records
• 2025-12-02 Pending — GBAOR
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $55,000 GBAOR
• 2025-10-08 Listed $65,000 GBAOR
• 2022-01-28 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2011-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,186 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.