643 Warren Ave · Indianapolis city (balance), IN 46221

$68,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 921 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1930 5,053 sqft lot $75/sqft · 18% below area Est $137k · 50% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent investment opportunity with this home to make it yours however you wish. This amazing opportunity is sold AS-IS.

Key facts

• 5,053 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1930

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $880 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $65k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.6% vs local median 4.4% in Indianapolis city (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Indianapolis Public Schools (urban): math 14% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #286 of 301 in IN (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 43 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,906 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $476 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.8% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($65k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $64,765 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.72%
• DSCR: 3.43
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,050
• List price: $68,900
• Delta: -49.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
624 Warren Ave	0.04mi	2/1.0 (-1)	994 (+8%)	9mo	$164,000	$165	73
920 Arbor Ave	0.20mi	3/1.0	902 (-2%)	19mo	$140,000	$155	72
657 Birch Ave	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+9%)	8mo	$165,000	$164	70
817 Birch Ave	0.14mi	2/1.0 (-1)	806 (-12%)	19mo	$68,000	$84	52
1801 W Morris St	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,056 (+15%)	12mo	$189,000	$179	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.22×
• Total profit: $42,746
• Equity at exit: $10,273

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.23×
• Total profit: $100,898
• Equity at exit: $5,957

Cash invested: $19,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46221

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,825 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$361
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,066/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $880

Break-even live

Break-even rent $712

Max offer price $68,900

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $919	-5% $899	+0% $880	+5% $860	+10% $841
Rent	-10% $735	-5% $808	+0% $880	+5% $952	+10% $1,024
Rate	-1.0pp $914	-0.5pp $897	base $880	+0.5pp $862	+1.0pp $844

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,225
• Closing costs: $2,067
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1105 Blaine Ave Indianapolis, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1157	$1,795	$1.55	24d	1	0.47mi
101 S Harding St Apt 307 Indianapolis, IN	2.0	2.0	970	$1,685	$1.74	4d	1	0.68mi
1801 W Morris St Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.5	1056	$1,795	$1.70	44d	1	0.73mi
1339 W Lee St Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.5	960	$975	$1.02	4d	1	0.84mi
210 N Richland St Indianapolis, IN	4.0	2.0	1062	$1,625	$1.53	15d	1	1.02mi
915 S Meridian St Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0–2.0	829	$2,551	$3.08	2d	42	1.18mi
1122 S Meridian St Unit B MERIDIAN Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.5	840	$1,100	$1.31	44d	1	1.19mi
841 S Addison St Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	44d	1	1.22mi
460 N White River Parkway Dr W Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	681	$1,725	$2.53	4d	14	1.29mi
50 N Illinois St Unit 1534468P Indianapolis, IN	1.0–5.0	1.5–4.0	1770	$5,395	$3.05	3d	3	1.35mi
1911 Wilcox St Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0	896	$1,150	$1.28	44d	1	1.35mi
114 W Market St Indianapolis, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1193	$2,879	$2.41	45d	9	1.35mi
30 E Georgia St Indianapolis, IN	2.0	1.0–2.0	882	$1,590	$1.80	3d	14	1.37mi
1909 S Pershing Ave Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.5	728	$1,750	$2.40	4d	1	1.47mi
235 S Delaware St Unit 1364131P Indianapolis, IN	2.0	2.0	893	$3,801	$4.26	15d	1	1.48mi
229 S Delaware St Indianapolis, IN	3.0	1.0–3.5	1207	$4,758	$3.94	2d	54	1.48mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $68,900 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $68,900 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $68,900 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $68,900 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $68,900 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $68,900 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $68,900 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $68,900 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $68,900 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $68,900 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $73,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $73,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $73,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $73,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $73,000 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity with this home to make it yours however you wish. This amazing opportunity is sold AS-IS.

16. 2026-04-28
    price $76,900 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity with this home to make it yours however you wish. This amazing opportunity is sold AS-IS.

17. 2026-04-09
    listed $81,000 Active 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity with this home to make it yours however you wish. This amazing opportunity is sold AS-IS.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,066 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,066 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,901
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,859
• − Property taxes: −$2,066
• − Insurance: −$344
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,752
• − Management: −$1,752
• − Depreciation: −$2,004
• Taxable income: $10,123
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,430
• After-tax cash flow: $8,126/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indianapolis Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 1804770
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,034
• Composite: 13.69/100
• National rank: #9499
• State rank: #286 of 301 in IN

Livability — Indianapolis city (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Indianapolis city (balance), IN
• County: Marion County · 998,460 people
• City population: 881,119
• Metro: Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
• Population (ZIP): 27,027
• Household income: $65,280
• Rent vs Own: 38.2% rent · 61.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1011.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,572 people
• By 2030: 1,065,727 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 1,141,577 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 1,208,920 · +17.9%
• By 2075: 1,367,288 · +33.3%
• By 2100: 1,438,201 · +40.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+27.7) · D 63.0% · R 35.3% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.7pp no change · 2008: 28.4pp · 2024: 27.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+27.7 2020: D+29.1 2016: D+22.8 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+28.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.56%
• Current HPI: 313.4711
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.79%
• Metro: Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

-9.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $73,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $76,900 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Listed $81,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,066 · +13.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.