514 S Main St · Ellinwood, KS 67526

$42,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1948 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Off street parking
• Large backyard
• Privacy fence

Tags

• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM
• OFF STREET PARKING
• LARGE BACKYARD
• PRIVACY FENCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $42k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-98 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $25k (40.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($792 rent vs $42k).
• Recommended offer: $25k (40.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#135 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Ellinwood Public Schools (rural): math 30% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #93 of 169 in KS (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Barton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($294 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Barton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $9k; list at $42k implies a 352% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $25,138 (40.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.10%
• DSCR: 2.47
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.68% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $5,476
• Equity at exit: $25,853

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $21,788
• Equity at exit: $46,156

Cash invested: $11,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 67526

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $792 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$223
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $683/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$166
• Net cashflow: $-98

Break-even live

Break-even rent $916

Max offer price $25,138

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-74	-5% $-86	+0% $-98	+5% $-110	+10% $-122
Rent	-10% $-161	-5% $-130	+0% $-98	+5% $-67	+10% $-36
Rate	-1.0pp $-77	-0.5pp $-87	base $-98	+0.5pp $-109	+1.0pp $-120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,625
• Closing costs: $1,275
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   listed $42,500 Active
3. 2005-06-01
   soldstatus $9,400
4. 2005-03-11
   listed $9,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $683 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $683 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 6% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,505
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,381
• − Property taxes: −$683
• − Insurance: −$5,331
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$760
• − Management: −$760
• − Depreciation: −$1,236
• Taxable loss: −$1,647
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$395
• After-tax cash flow: $-784/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ellinwood Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2005820
• Math proficiency: 30% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $50,311
• Composite: 26.65/100
• National rank: #7168
• State rank: #93 of 169 in KS

Livability — Ellinwood

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #135
• US rank: #6766

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellinwood, KS
• Population (ZIP): 2,569

Population outlook (Barton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,088 people
• By 2030: 25,418 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 24,010 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 22,719 · -12.9%
• By 2075: 20,690 · -20.7%
• By 2100: 18,869 · -27.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: German 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Barton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.8) · D 20.9% · R 77.6% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.4pp toward R · 2008: -43.3pp · 2024: -56.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.8 2020: R+56.4 2016: R+58.9 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+43.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.68%
• Current HPI: 179.2904
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+329.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — Hays MLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $42,500 Hays MLS
• 2005-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $9,400 Public Records
• 2005-03-11 Listed $9,900 SCKMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+10.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $683 · +28.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.