662 Willow Brook Rd · Salt Point, NY 12514

$350,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,078 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1969 1.34 ac lot Est $382k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +1.7/5.0

Listing remarks

WELCOME HOME to this tucked away on a peaceful wooded setting in Clinton Corners and located within the Rhinebeck Central School District, this charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath ranch offers the perfect balance of privacy, comfort, and convenience. With nearly 1,100 square feet of living space all situated on one level, this home provides an easy and functional layout ideal for everyday living. Step inside to a bright and inviting living room filled with natural light from large picture windows overlooking the surrounding trees. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the dining room and kitchen, creating a comfortable space for both entertaining and daily life. Down the hall, you'll find

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Newer roof
• Natural light

Tags

• NATURAL LIGHT
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• MATURE TREES
• SECLUDED COUNTRY FEEL
• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER SIDING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway; Garage (1 space)
• Utilities: Electric service by Central Hudson; Septic tank; Cable connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open floor plan; First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Washer/dryer hookup; Full basement; Pull-down attic stairs; 9 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($181/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $295k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.3% in Salt Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 34/100 on livability (#1,193 in NY) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Rhinebeck Central School District (town): math 64% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #221 of 755 in NY (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Chancellor Livingston Elementary School (math 74% / reading 74%, grade A, #314 of 2,108 statewide, top 17%, 383 students, 14% FRL); Bulkeley Middle School (math 90% / reading 75%, grade A+, #20 of 729 statewide, top 3%, 232 students, 20% FRL); Rhinebeck Senior High School (math 98% / reading 70%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 322 students, 18% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 80% at this address vs 62% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Rhinebeck Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $98k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $294,505 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.18%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $381,612
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
73 Woods Dr	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (+0%)	21mo	$360,000	$333	46
73 Woods Dr	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,018 (-6%)	21mo	$360,000	$354	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $191,559
• Equity at exit: $315,308

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.75×
• Total profit: $563,310
• Equity at exit: $679,973

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12514

• Home prices YoY: 11.6%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,945 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$330 /mo · $3,963/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$618
• Net cashflow: $15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,926

Max offer price $350,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $213	-5% $114	+0% $15	+5% $-84	+10% $-183
Rent	-10% $-218	-5% $-101	+0% $15	+5% $131	+10% $248
Rate	-1.0pp $191	-0.5pp $104	base $15	+0.5pp $-76	+1.0pp $-168

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $350,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $350,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $350,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $350,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $350,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $350,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-09
   listed $350,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,963 · $330/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,939 · $412/mo
• Expected delta: +$976/yr (+$81/mo · 24.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,341
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$3,963
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,827
• − Management: −$2,827
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$5,814
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,395
• After-tax cash flow: $1,576/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rhinebeck Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624480
• Math proficiency: 64% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $71,819
• Composite: 56.35/100
• National rank: #2481
• State rank: #221 of 755 in NY

Livability — Salt Point

• Score: 34/100
• State rank: #1193
• US rank: #27748

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,306
• Population (ZIP): 3,120

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 4% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 31.24%
• Current HPI: 300.533
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $350,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,963 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.