27620 Riverdale Ln · Bonita Springs, FL 34134

$370,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,362 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 227 Days on market

Built 1971 7,318 sqft lot Est $447k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY! Bring all offers! Home has been damaged by past hurricanes. Great location canal just off the Imperial River and just 2 miles to Bonita Beach!

Key facts

• 7,318 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1971

Tags

• 2 MILES TO BONITA BEACH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $709 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $370k).
• Recommended offer: $326k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 1.7% in Bonita Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#428 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools C-, cost of living C-, health & safety D.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 699 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($131k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 227 days — a 12% lower offer ($326k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $370k implies a 174% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $325,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 227 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.16%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $446,736
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3980 Quails Walk	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-11%)	2mo	$380,000	$313	70
28230 Meadowlark Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,434 (+5%)	15mo	$470,000	$328	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-15,096
• Equity at exit: $55,168

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $43,717
• Equity at exit: $31,991

Cash invested: $103,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34134

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 699
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,830 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax from tax record: −$585 /mo · $7,023/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,014
• Net cashflow: $709

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,932

Max offer price $370,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,500
• Closing costs: $11,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27625 Riverdale Ln Unit 27627 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	960	$1,795	$1.87	24d	1	0.01mi
27594 Shore Dr Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1426	$5,500	$3.86	24d	1	0.05mi
4212 Rita Ln Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1428	$1,475	$1.03	24d	1	0.27mi
27921 Bonita Village Blvd Bonita Springs, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1429	$3,745	$2.62	24d	3	0.31mi
27579 Big Bend Rd Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1512	$2,700	$1.79	24d	1	0.41mi
4426 Little Hickory Rd Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	979	$1,900	$1.94	19d	1	0.46mi
11 2nd St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1595	$9,500	$5.96	23d	1	0.49mi
3503 Brink Cir Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	3.0	1300	$2,200	$1.69	24d	1	0.51mi
4412 Vanda Dr Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,800	$1.56	24d	1	0.51mi
3463 Brink Cir Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,150	$2.15	24d	1	0.53mi
27581 Imperial Shores Blvd Unit 2 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,900	$2.11	3d	1	0.53mi
28178 Sunset Dr Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	936	$2,550	$2.72	21d	1	0.54mi
27585 Imperial Shores Blvd Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.0	1576	$8,000	$5.08	24d	1	0.55mi
27080 Lake Harbor Ct #202 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1654	$7,200	$4.35	24d	1	0.56mi
27080 Lake Harbor Ct #201 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1764	$7,500	$4.25	24d	1	0.56mi
4240 Lake Forest Dr #423 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1450	$6,500	$4.48	24d	1	0.58mi
27190 Oakwood Lake Dr #102 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1603	$7,500	$4.68	24d	1	0.59mi
75 3rd St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.0	1630	$8,900	$5.46	23d	1	0.60mi
4251 Lake Forest Dr #214 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1393	$6,000	$4.31	24d	1	0.60mi
4111 Lake Forest Dr #523 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1393	$5,000	$3.59	24d	1	0.64mi
60 4th St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1860	$11,400	$6.13	23d	1	0.66mi
27038 Oakwood Lake Dr Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.0	1818	$8,500	$4.68	24d	1	0.69mi
64 4th St Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1231	$3,700	$3.01	23d	2	0.70mi
3561 Imperial Crossing Dr Bonita Springs, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1122	$3,650	$3.25	3d	19	0.71mi
27119 Oakwood Lake Dr Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1812	$7,500	$4.14	24d	1	0.73mi
4851 Gary Rd Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	1281	$2,250	$1.76	24d	1	0.74mi
4860 Gary Rd Unit 4 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1875	$2,900	$1.55	24d	1	0.76mi
27052 Kindlewood Ln Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1584	$3,700	$2.34	3d	1	0.83mi
26930 Wedgewood Dr #202 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1620	$5,500	$3.40	24d	1	0.84mi
4041 Whiskey Pointe Ln #102 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1345	$6,500	$4.83	24d	1	0.85mi
26881 Wedgewood Dr #201 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1640	$8,000	$4.88	24d	1	0.85mi
74 7th St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1124	$3,150	$2.80	23d	1	0.86mi
26850 Wedgewood Dr #202 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.0	1781	$8,500	$4.77	24d	1	0.87mi
27123 Kindlewood Ln Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1715	$4,500	$2.62	24d	1	0.89mi
3941 Leeward Passage Ct #203 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1204	$2,000	$1.66	24d	1	0.91mi
8659 River Homes Ln #1307 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1087	$1,850	$1.70	19d	1	0.91mi
8659 River Homes Ln #1108 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1087	$4,500	$4.14	24d	1	0.91mi
62 8th St Unit 1073526P Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1593	$5,435	$3.41	23d	1	0.92mi
3921 Leeward Passage Ct #203 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1204	$3,500	$2.91	24d	1	0.93mi
4120 Bayhead Dr #303 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1523	$7,000	$4.60	24d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2025-12-11
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-21
   status Active
3. 2025-11-03
   status Pending
4. 2025-08-01
   price $370,000
5. 2025-06-06
   price $395,000
6. 2025-04-10
   listed $450,000 Active
7. 1998-01-29
   soldstatus $135,000
8. 1991-06-05
   soldstatus $120,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,023 · $585/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,023 · $585/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,959
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,726
• − Property taxes: −$7,023
• − Insurance: −$6,968
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,637
• − Management: −$4,637
• − Depreciation: −$10,764
• Taxable income: $3,204
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$769
• After-tax cash flow: $7,743/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bonita Springs

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #428
• US rank: #7576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bonita Springs, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 64,727
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,475
• Household income: $130,719
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 554.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -236.48%
• Current HPI: 237.4416
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.85%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+208.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-11 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2025-11-21 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2025-11-03 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $370,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $395,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-04-10 Listed $450,000 FORTMLS
• 1998-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 1991-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,023 · +510.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.