2221 Walden Pond Blvd · Forney, TX 75126

$279,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,902 sqft · Land · 10 Days on market

Built 2025 6,098 sqft lot $147/sqft · 6% below area Est $299k · 6% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LENNAR Walden Pond- Walsh Floorplan - This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is at the back of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet, while three secondary bedrooms are near the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests. Prices, dimensions and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open layout
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• COVERED PATIO
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Walden Pond West subdivision, Kaufman County
• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA and VA financing; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: Mandatory association managed by Essex Management; Annual association fee of 600; Association fees cover full use of facilities, grounds maintenance, and management fees

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with two covered spaces; Garage faces front with 2-car single door
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors; Fire alarm
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Concrete, curbs and sidewalks; Municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; New construction - incomplete (2025)
• Construction: Brick and siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Year built 2025
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Landscaped yard; Sprinkler system; Wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite countertops; Eat-in kitchen; Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Water line to refrigerator; Plumbed for gas in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom with walk-in closet
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Electric heating and cooling; Natural gas heating; ENERGY STAR qualified equipment
• Interior features: Open floorplan with kitchen island and pantry; Built-in features; Decorative lighting; High-speed internet available; Cable TV available; Walk-in closets; Tankless water heater
• Laundry & utility: Tankless water heater (listed under appliances)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $254 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (9.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $253k (9.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby El (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 682 students, 59% FRL); Brown Middle (math 29% / reading 39%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 673 students, 56% FRL); North Forney H S (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,502 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 26% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $253,427 (9.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.89%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $298,893
• List price: $279,999
• Delta: -6.32%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-33,211
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-24,133
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,534 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,352/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$532
• Net cashflow: $254

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,212

Max offer price $279,999

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $413	-5% $334	+0% $254	+5% $175	+10% $96
Rent	-10% $54	-5% $154	+0% $254	+5% $355	+10% $455
Rate	-1.0pp $395	-0.5pp $326	base $254	+0.5pp $182	+1.0pp $108

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1412 Grove Pond Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1708	$2,500	$1.46	20d	1	0.23mi
1408 Grove Pond Rd Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2543	$3,095	$1.22	45d	1	0.24mi
1108 Redcoat Dr , TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,250	$1.25	6d	1	0.27mi
534 Tuscany Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2069	$2,500	$1.21	45d	1	0.32mi
525 Ardsley Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1775	$2,395	$1.35	1d	1	0.41mi
1012 Barkers Pond Ave Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1710	$2,295	$1.34	4d	1	0.44mi
2207 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$2,100	$1.48	45d	1	0.44mi
1421 Kirkhill Ln Unit 1421 Heath, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$3,500	$1.38	22d	1	0.45mi
1421 Kirkhill Ln Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$3,600	$1.41	26d	1	0.45mi
2213 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2146	$2,395	$1.12	9d	1	0.46mi
2213 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2146	$2,395	$1.12	18d	1	0.46mi
2016 Croftbank St Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1920	$2,600	$1.35	1d	1	0.51mi
2217 Perrymead Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$2,360	$1.66	6d	1	0.51mi
2225 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1909	$2,150	$1.13	45d	1	0.52mi
1105 N Gateway Blvd Forney, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,842	$1.87	1d	30	0.56mi
2127 Pecan Ridge Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2113	$2,100	$0.99	45d	1	0.62mi
1750 Gleasondale Pl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,200	$1.35	45d	1	0.64mi
1759 Gleasondale Pl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1726	$2,050	$1.19	26d	1	0.65mi
1430 Everett Gardens Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,950	$1.33	14d	1	0.67mi
1025 Dunhill Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2273	$2,450	$1.08	3d	1	0.69mi
2023 Avondown Rd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,191	$1.34	1d	1	0.70mi
1462 Everett Gardens Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,195	$1.18	26d	1	0.73mi
1462 Everett Gardens Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,195	$1.18	3d	1	0.73mi
2105 Cardinal Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,200	$1.25	24d	1	0.85mi
2121 Juniper Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,249	$1.16	4d	1	0.85mi
2201 Woodberry Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$2,050	$1.11	45d	1	0.87mi
2421 Eldor Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,195	$1.31	26d	1	0.87mi
1405 N Gateway Blvd Forney, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$3,920	$4.19	0d	1	0.88mi
635 Brockwell Bnd Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2506	$3,300	$1.32	21d	1	0.88mi
236 Pennridge Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1871	$2,295	$1.23	26d	1	0.91mi
2106 Bluebell Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1541	$1,950	$1.27	7d	1	0.93mi
1017 Somerset Cir Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2185	$2,375	$1.09	9d	1	0.95mi
2029 Cone Flower Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,816	$1.13	9d	1	0.96mi
1448 Kingswell Ln Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2208	$2,950	$1.34	26d	1	0.96mi
108 Antler Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2250	$2,449	$1.09	26d	1	0.97mi
236 Archer Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2016	$2,300	$1.14	20d	1	0.99mi
120 Garner Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2214	$2,500	$1.13	45d	1	1.00mi
2027 Fair Crest Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2108	$1,975	$0.94	45d	1	1.01mi
2020 Natchez Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2323	$2,070	$0.89	45d	1	1.02mi
2026 Gardenia Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2160	$2,315	$1.07	45d	1	1.02mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $279,999 Pending 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $279,999 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $279,999 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-05-12
   price $276,999 407-char remark
5. 2026-05-10
   price $278,999 407-char remark
6. 2026-04-14
   price $279,999 407-char remark
7. 2026-04-09
   price $283,999 407-char remark
8. 2026-04-05
   listed $311,999 Active 407-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,352 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,124 · $427/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,772/yr (+$314/mo · 279.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,411
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$1,352
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,433
• − Management: −$2,433
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$1,636
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$393
• After-tax cash flow: $3,446/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $279,999 NTREIS
• 2026-05-22 Listed $276,999 NTREIS

Property tax history

+104.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,352 · +104.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.