3624 S Monitor Cir · Stockton, CA 95219

$315,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,344 sqft · Condo public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1971 $234/sqft · 17% below area Est $379k · 17% under · waterfront $504/mo HOA · 24% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.1/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautiful and inviting condo, located in the desirable Lincoln Village West neighborhood, is situated on Lake Lincoln and boasts some amazing views while sitting on your private back patio. Freshly painted inside and with new carpeting, this very clean and well-maintained home is ready for its new owners. Plantation shutters on all windows, letting in plenty of natural light, and a very peaceful condo community make this property very special. Spacious master bedroom, with cedar lined walk-in closet, provides a cozy retreat. Well maintained grounds along with a community pool and spacious lawn area leading down to the lake, are perfect for a relaxing lifestyle. Very close to shopping,

Key facts

• Community pool
• Plantation shutters
• Private back patio

Tags

• PRIVATE BACK PATIO
• PLANTATION SHUTTERS
• COMMUNITY POOL
• WELL MAINTAINED GROUNDS
• SPACIOUS LAWN AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Mandatory homeowners association; HOA covers exterior and grounds maintenance and pool; Monthly association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with garage door opener (1 garage space); Guest parking available
• Utilities: Public water with meter on site; Public sewer; Natural gas connected; Cable available; 220 volt outlet in laundry
• Home design: Attached condominium in a planned unit development; Residential property; Built in 1971; Updated/remodeled condition; Entry levels: main level (living, dining, partial bath, kitchen) and upper level (bedrooms, full bath)
• Construction: Tile roof; Built in 1971
• Exterior features: Tile roof; Lake access; Private built-in pool (fenced) and community pool amenities; Paved driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Tile countertops; Free-standing gas range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Garbage disposal; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms total; Master bedroom with walk-in closet (upper level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 partial bathroom; Master bath with tile, tub with shower over, and window; Additional bathrooms feature tile
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Fireplace provides supplemental heat
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; Front porch and uncovered patio; Window coverings; Dual-pane windows; Laundry closet on the ground floor (inside area); 1 gas-piped fireplace in the living room; Levels: Two; 2 stories
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups in laundry closet (220V outlet in laundry)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-864 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (48.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (32.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (48.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Lincoln Unified (urban): math 26% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #284 of 517 in CA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mable Barron (math 23% / reading 31%, grade F, #917 of 1,571 statewide, top 60%, 672 students, 57% FRL); Sierra Middle (math 25% / reading 48%, grade F, #175 of 498 statewide, top 36%, 572 students, 73% FRL); Lincoln High (math 35% / reading 64%, grade D, #352 of 1,170 statewide, top 31%, 2,936 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,283 (48.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
11. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
12. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
13. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
14. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
15. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.76%
• DSCR: 0.48
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $379,380
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -16.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $119,256
• Equity at exit: $283,777

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.54×
• Total profit: $400,324
• Equity at exit: $611,976

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95219

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,121 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$253 /mo · $3,035/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$504
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $-864

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,215

Max offer price $162,283

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-686	-5% $-775	+0% $-864	+5% $-954	+10% $-1,043
Rent	-10% $-1,032	-5% $-948	+0% $-864	+5% $-781	+10% $-697
Rate	-1.0pp $-706	-0.5pp $-784	base $-864	+0.5pp $-946	+1.0pp $-1,029

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3722 W Benjamin Holt Dr #13 Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	978	$2,000	$2.04	45d	1	0.34mi
6031 Carolina Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1245	$2,200	$1.77	5d	1	0.35mi
3790 W Benjamin Holt Dr #13 Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	979	$1,850	$1.89	25d	1	0.38mi
6019 Carolina Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1185	$2,300	$1.94	16d	1	0.40mi
3038 W Swain Rd Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	920	$2,100	$2.28	5d	1	0.43mi
6353 Morgan Pl Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$1,975	$2.26	45d	1	0.44mi
3630 Mill Springs Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	1245	$2,000	$1.61	45d	1	0.51mi
5858 Morgan Pl Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	884	$1,872	$2.12	4d	7	0.54mi
3286 Blue Ridge Cir Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	975	$1,950	$2.00	25d	1	0.56mi
3286 Blue Ridge Cir Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,950	$2.29	12d	2	0.56mi
6937 Sumter Quay Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1204	$2,250	$1.87	45d	1	0.65mi
6851 Plymouth Rd Unit 3 Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,350	$2.14	45d	1	0.73mi
6851 Plymouth Rd Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1165	$2,450	$2.10	45d	1	0.73mi
3335 Riverton Way Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	1064	$2,402	$2.26	21d	1	0.73mi
5834 Brush Creek Dr Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,295	$2.09	4d	1	0.77mi
2903 Whittier Ct Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1102	$1,995	$1.81	25d	1	0.84mi
3915 Bridlewood Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,795	$1.99	23d	1	0.93mi
5007 Innisbrook Dr Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1723	$3,200	$1.86	45d	1	0.93mi
3124 Kelley Ct Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1145	$1,995	$1.74	45d	1	0.98mi
5301 Feather River Dr Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	852	$2,575	$3.02	4d	6	0.98mi
7167 Kelley Dr Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1145	$2,000	$1.75	45d	1	1.01mi
7355 Kelley Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	890	$1,800	$2.02	5d	1	1.08mi
7356 Kelley Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	1110	$1,600	$1.44	25d	1	1.11mi
3591 Quail Lakes Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	930	$1,595	$1.72	5d	1	1.15mi
2217 Polk Way Stockton, CA	3.0	1.0	1202	$2,300	$1.91	25d	1	1.18mi
2217 Polk Way Stockton, CA	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,399	$2.00	5d	1	1.18mi
7565 Shoreline Dr Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$2,255	$2.66	3d	4	1.21mi
1851 Porter Way Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	1437	$1,950	$1.36	46d	1	1.45mi
7901 Montgomery Ave Unit 010 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.5	1050	$2,075	$1.98	4d	1	1.47mi
7901 Montgomery Ave Unit 009 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.5	1050	$2,100	$2.00	4d	1	1.47mi
7921 Montgomery Ave Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,695	$1.51	45d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $504 · $6,048/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,035 · $253/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,035 · $253/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 24 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,451
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$3,035
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,036
• − Management: −$2,036
• − HOA: −$6,048
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$16,087
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,861
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,513/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln Unified
• NCES district ID: 0621690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $56,356
• Composite: 29.66/100
• National rank: #6465
• State rank: #284 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,713
• Household income: $112,268
• Rent vs Own: 39.4% rent · 60.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 825.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 33% Hispanic / Latino 30% Asian 21% Two or more races 18% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 69.26%
• Current HPI: 1122.61
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.16%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,035 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.