Whitetail Plan · Beasley, TX 77417

$291,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,066 sqft · SingleFamily · 894 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 43% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 893 days

🏗️ New construction. The $291,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $302,566.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $292k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $210 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (0.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 5.5% in Beasley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,273 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Beasley El (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 366 students, 86% FRL); Lamar J H (math 30% / reading 34%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 1,246 students, 71% FRL); Lamar Cons H S (math 26% / reading 48%, grade F, #897 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,762 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 43% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lamar CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 316 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,912/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $85k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 894 days — a 12% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $218k (43%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $256,951 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 894 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.97%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $302,566
• List price: $291,990
• Delta: -3.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
711 Mockingbird Passage Dr	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,200 (+6%)	3mo	$349,900	$159	75
10602 Dogwood Sky Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,233 (+8%)	1mo	$284,990	$128	63
10643 Dogwood Sky Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,233 (+8%)	2mo	$274,990	$123	63
10710 Dogwood Sky Dr	0.44mi	4/3.0	2,241 (+8%)	0mo	$319,990	$143	63
623 Blue Stone Dr	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,042 (-1%)	2mo	$304,990	$149	60
611 Blue Stone Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,042 (-1%)	1mo	$309,990	$152	60
619 Blue Stone Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0	2,031 (-2%)	3mo	$306,990	$151	58
723 Blue Stone Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0	2,031 (-2%)	3mo	$306,990	$151	58
10902 Bonfire Trl	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,794 (-13%)	2mo	$260,000	$145	56
10718 Sage Bend Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,778 (-14%)	3mo	$271,990	$153	50
1031 Pecan Harvest Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,778 (-14%)	2mo	$304,990	$172	48
1030 Arbor Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,841 (-11%)	2mo	$294,990	$160	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $68,715
• Equity at exit: $156,123

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $203,842
• Equity at exit: $257,545

Cash invested: $84,719 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 102 active · 47 under contract
• Months of supply: 19.1 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $304,990 ($154/sqft)
• Median days on market: 81 d
• This list price: 35% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -5.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77417

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 316
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,912 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,587
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$378 /mo · $4,538/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$612
• Net cashflow: $210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,647

Max offer price $302,566

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $419	-5% $314	+0% $210	+5% $105	+10% $1
Rent	-10% $-20	-5% $95	+0% $210	+5% $325	+10% $440
Rate	-1.0pp $362	-0.5pp $287	base $210	+0.5pp $131	+1.0pp $51

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,642
• Closing costs: $9,077
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10730 Sky Creek Ln Beasley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1869	$3,065	$1.64	0d	1	0.06mi
10643 Dogwood Sky Dr Beasley, TX	4.0	2.5	2233	$2,200	$0.99	0d	1	0.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $291,990 Active 894 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $291,990 Active 893 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $291,990 Active 892 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $291,990 Active 891 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $291,990 Active 890 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $291,990 Active 888 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $291,990 Active 887 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $291,990 Active 886 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $291,990 Active 885 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $291,990 Active 884 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $291,990 Active 883 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $291,990 Active 882 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $291,990 Active 881 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $291,990 Active 880 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $291,990 Active 879 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $291,990 Active 878 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $291,990 Active 877 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $291,990 Active 876 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $291,990 Active 875 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $291,990 Active 874 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $291,990 Active 873 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $291,990 Active 872 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $291,990 Active 871 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $291,990 Active 870 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $291,990 Active 869 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $291,990 Active 868 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $291,990 Active 867 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $291,990 Active 866 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $291,990 Active 865 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $291,990 Active 864 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $291,990 Active 863 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $291,990 Active 862 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $291,990 Active 861 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $291,990 Active 860 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $291,990 Active 859 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $291,990 Active 858 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $291,990 Active 857 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $291,990 Active 856 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $291,990 Active 855 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $291,990 Active 854 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $291,990 Active 853 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $291,990 Active 852 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $291,990 Active 851 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $291,990 Active 850 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $291,990 Active 849 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $291,990 Active 848 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $291,990 Active 847 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $291,990 Active 846 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $291,990 Active 845 DOM
50. 2026-09-16
    days on market $291,990 Active 841 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,946
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,948
• − Property taxes: −$4,538
• − Insurance: −$1,513
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,796
• − Management: −$2,796
• − Depreciation: −$8,802
• Taxable loss: −$2,447
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$587
• After-tax cash flow: $3,103/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with a spacious and modern interior, well-maintained exterior, and no visible repairs needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to increase its value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick and updating the landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Resale Updating the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and makes it more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and adds value for both resale and rental by making the home more technologically advanced. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Beasley El F TX #1,995/4,322 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 High Dr Thomas E Randle H S

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 57/100

Livability — Beasley

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1273
• US rank: #22130

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing F Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend · 1,004,526 people
• Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,232
• Household income: $60,809
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 49% White 22% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 337.8236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-42.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2024-05-30 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-05-30 Price Changed $291,990 Zillow
• 2024-03-14 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-03-12 Listed $510,000 Zillow