122 Stephens Ave · New York, NY 10473

$239,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1925 2,786 sqft lot ↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

.

Key facts

• 2,786 sq ft lot
• Built 1925
• Listed 64 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $896 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $239k).
• Recommended offer: $225k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,268/mo this rent would consume 75% of the median local household income ($52k/yr) (locally 3913% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,660 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.26%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $484,800
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1204 Harding Park	0.31mi	2/1.0	800 (0%)	17mo	$485,000	$606	72
1624 Harding Park	0.23mi	2/1.0	839 (+5%)	20mo	$380,000	$453	65
224 Newman Ave	0.13mi	3/2.5 (+1)	775 (-3%)	18mo	$525,000	$677	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $18,408
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $89,797
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10473

• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,268 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$266 /mo · $3,193/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$686
• Net cashflow: $896

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,134

Max offer price $239,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,031	-5% $964	+0% $896	+5% $828	+10% $761
Rent	-10% $638	-5% $767	+0% $896	+5% $1,025	+10% $1,154
Rate	-1.0pp $1,016	-0.5pp $957	base $896	+0.5pp $834	+1.0pp $771

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
620 Rosedale Ave Bronx, NY	3.0	1.0	1053	$3,643	$3.46	25d	1	0.87mi
520 115th St Unit 520E College Point, NY	2.0	2.0	928	$2,800	$3.02	25d	1	1.28mi
510 115th St Unit 510A College Point, NY	2.0	2.0	950	$3,300	$3.47	25d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-12-24
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-22
   price $239,000
3. 2025-10-22
   price $249,000
4. 2025-10-21
   listed $249 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,193 · $266/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,616 · $301/mo
• Expected delta: +$423/yr (+$35/mo · 13.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,212
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$3,193
• − Insurance: −$1,992
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,137
• − Management: −$3,137
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable income: $7,412
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,779
• After-tax cash flow: $8,973/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Bronx County · 1,197,324 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 58,855
• Household income: $52,462
• Rent vs Own: 71.4% rent · 28.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 3913.0

Population outlook (Bronx County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,353 people
• By 2030: 1,681,852 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,824,421 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 1,945,470 · +21.0%
• By 2075: 2,187,887 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 2,244,136 · +39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% Black 34% Two or more races 12% Asian 2% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 31% Dominican 20%
• Common ancestry: British 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 45% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bronx

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+45.4) · D 72.7% · R 27.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 77.8pp · 2024: 45.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+45.4 2020: D+67.6 2016: D+79.1 2012: D+82.9 2008: D+77.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.70%
• Current HPI: 276.2941
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-24 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $239,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $249,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-21 Listed $249 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+16.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,193 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.