118 Tall Cedar Way · Wylie, TX 75407

$226,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,648 sqft · SingleFamily · 48 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,050 sqft lot $138/sqft · 10% below area Est $252k · 10% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New homes in Princeton, TX! Welcome to Arbor Trails! This gorgeous new Express homes community is located in Collin County, Branch ,Princeton area off CR 437. DR Horton, your new home builder, we offer 3 different plans in Arbor Trails ranging from a 2 2.5 1 1,130 sq ft to a 4 2.5 1 that's 1,549 sq ft.

Key facts

• 6,050 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $227k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($408/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (8.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.0% in Wylie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#419 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1404 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $208,184 (8.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.64%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $251,740
• List price: $226,990
• Delta: -9.83%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
123 Tall Cedar Way	0.03mi	4/2.5	1,648 (0%)	1mo	$236,990	$144	98
120 Redwood Rd	0.09mi	4/2.5	1,720 (+4%)	0mo	$255,990	$149	88
204 Redwood Rd	0.10mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,489 (-10%)	1mo	$237,990	$160	73
211 Arbor Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,895 (+15%)	0mo	$264,990	$140	65
118 Redwood Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,895 (+15%)	1mo	$264,990	$140	65
200 Redwood Rd	0.10mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,895 (+15%)	1mo	$264,990	$140	64
7009 Cottonseed Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,895 (+15%)	0mo	$264,990	$140	64
210 Redwood Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,895 (+15%)	1mo	$270,480	$143	64
6414 Willet Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-15%)	1mo	$252,999	$180	40
6508 Glade St	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-15%)	1mo	$222,999	$159	40
416 Sandhill Crane Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-15%)	0mo	$221,999	$158	39
6412 Longspur Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-15%)	0mo	$222,999	$159	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-40,662
• Equity at exit: $33,845

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-55,967
• Equity at exit: $19,626

Cash invested: $63,557 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1404
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,082 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,190
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$284 /mo · $3,405/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,039

Max offer price $226,990

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,748
• Closing costs: $6,810
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
125 Arbor Dr Unit NA Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	2054	$2,097	$1.02	24d	1	0.05mi
213 Arbor DR Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1720	$2,000	$1.16	43d	1	0.07mi
316 Arbor DR Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1648	$1,799	$1.09	24d	1	0.07mi
213 Arbor DR Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1720	$1,800	$1.05	2d	1	0.07mi
120 Redwood Rd Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1720	$2,300	$1.34	1d	1	0.07mi
151 Sesame Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1299	$1,634	$1.26	24d	1	0.09mi
7007 Cottonseed Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1720	$1,995	$1.16	10d	1	0.11mi
7007 Cottonseed Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1720	$1,995	$1.16	7d	1	0.11mi
7018 Cottonseed Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	2131	$2,095	$0.98	24d	1	0.11mi
7012 Cottonseed Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$1,878	$1.04	20d	1	0.13mi
101 County Road 1010 Unit 1010 Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,295	$1.23	43d	1	0.16mi
321 Tall Cedar Way Princeton, TX	3.0	3.0	1468	$1,725	$1.18	43d	1	0.16mi
6808 Sunbeam Cir Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1155	$1,534	$1.33	21d	1	0.16mi
252 Jethro Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,595	$1.23	43d	1	0.19mi
119 Sunflower St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,999	$1.54	12d	1	0.20mi
7016 Vining Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1648	$2,000	$1.21	43d	1	0.21mi
6739 Coulter Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1155	$1,500	$1.30	43d	1	0.22mi
7020 Vining DR Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1382	$1,850	$1.34	24d	1	0.22mi
206 Sunflower St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1155	$1,475	$1.28	20d	1	0.23mi
422 Tall Cedar Way Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	1648	$1,795	$1.09	43d	1	0.23mi
230 Sunflower St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,560	$1.20	24d	1	0.23mi
241 Thresher Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1295	$1,850	$1.43	24d	1	0.26mi
6751 Highlands St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,639	$1.16	16d	1	0.26mi
152 Thresher Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,750	$1.35	12d	1	0.27mi
211 Herman Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1295	$1,595	$1.23	43d	1	0.29mi
6561 Alfalfa St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,599	$1.11	43d	1	0.36mi
6550 August Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,695	$1.20	3d	1	0.37mi
6533 Middlebury Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1598	$1,900	$1.19	4d	1	0.41mi
639 Montclair Ave , TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,850	$1.08	7d	1	0.45mi
639 Montclair Ave , TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$2,100	$1.23	43d	1	0.45mi
6744 Teal Cir Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,790	$1.21	20d	1	0.46mi
619 Fisher Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,600	$1.27	43d	1	0.48mi
214 Wheatgrass Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,699	$1.21	43d	1	0.49mi
538 Montclair Ave Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,775	$1.41	10d	1	0.49mi
6445 Middlebury Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,649	$1.30	7d	1	0.49mi
545 Holleman Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,750	$1.19	43d	1	0.50mi
427 Bower DR Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,850	$1.16	24d	1	0.51mi
402 Harvest St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,665	$1.16	12d	1	0.53mi
613 Holleman Dr , TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,000	$1.59	24d	1	0.55mi
416 Finch CIR Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,350	$1.07	43d	1	0.56mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-06
   price $226,990 304-char remark

   Show marketing remark (304 chars)

   New homes in Princeton, TX! Welcome to Arbor Trails! This gorgeous new Express homes community is located in Collin County, Branch ,Princeton area off CR 437. DR Horton, your new home builder, we offer 3 different plans in Arbor Trails ranging from a 2 2.5 1 1,130 sq ft to a 4 2.5 1 that's 1,549 sq ft.

2. 2026-04-10
   price $236,990 304-char remark

   Show marketing remark (304 chars)

   New homes in Princeton, TX! Welcome to Arbor Trails! This gorgeous new Express homes community is located in Collin County, Branch ,Princeton area off CR 437. DR Horton, your new home builder, we offer 3 different plans in Arbor Trails ranging from a 2 2.5 1 1,130 sq ft to a 4 2.5 1 that's 1,549 sq ft.

3. 2026-04-02
   listed $246,990 Active 304-char remark

   Show marketing remark (304 chars)

   New homes in Princeton, TX! Welcome to Arbor Trails! This gorgeous new Express homes community is located in Collin County, Branch ,Princeton area off CR 437. DR Horton, your new home builder, we offer 3 different plans in Arbor Trails ranging from a 2 2.5 1 1,130 sq ft to a 4 2.5 1 that's 1,549 sq ft.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,982
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,715
• − Property taxes: −$3,405
• − Insurance: −$1,135
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,999
• − Management: −$1,999
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$6,603
• Taxable loss: −$3,377
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$811
• After-tax cash flow: $1,218/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed. Painting the exterior and replacing the carpet would significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet — Freshens up the interior and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet — Freshens up the interior and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wylie

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #419
• US rank: #8623

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 69,325
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $226,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $236,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $246,990 NTREIS