1042 N Boulder Dr · Carefree, AZ 85377

$2,275,000

4 bd · 6.0 ba · 5,445 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1972 0.58 ac lot $418/sqft · 10% below area Est $2540k · 10% under $218/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One of a kind- Rare Opportunity! Spacious-double customized home- Entertainer's Dream. Flexible floorplan-rooms open to Spectacular desert. Ideal Multi-Generational Home. Tremendous Beamed Great Room with corner of glass - Terrific Indoor-Outdoor living. Ultimate wine room & unique wet bar. Two kitchens, one with Viking appliances. Striking granite counters, also Butler's coffee bar. Quality cabinetry & doors throughout. Sun filled interiors-Views in every direction. Southwestern family room-distinctive fireplace & overlooking spectacular outdoors-patios, pool & spa. Spacious den/office and exercise room-TURNKEY! Most furnishings & art included. New roof-2023. Located within The Boulders-fabulous Resort & Golfing community. Membership optional. Home shows Exceptional Pride of Ownership.

Key facts

• 0.58 acre lot
• 4 garage spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/6.0-bath single-family listed at $2.27M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-43k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.75M (23.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.56M (31.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.56M (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#58 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D+, health & safety D+, commute F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Black Mountain Elementary School (math 66% / reading 63%, grade B, #104 of 1,109 statewide, top 10%, 495 students, 8% FRL); Sonoran Trails Middle School (math 48% / reading 50%, grade C-, #31 of 218 statewide, top 14%, 761 students, 7% FRL); Cactus Shadows High School (math 49% / reading 46%, grade D, #48 of 381 statewide, top 13%, 1,588 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools at 7% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $155k of equity ($16k loan paydown + $140k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$248k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($2.14M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $180k; list at $2.27M implies a 1164% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,560,642 (31.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.80%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,539,730
• List price: $2,275,000
• Delta: -10.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1084 N Boulder Dr	0.45mi	5/5.0 (+1)	5,020 (-8%)	2mo	$2,400,000	$478	55
7850 E EL Sendero Dr #21	0.71mi	4/5.5	5,016 (-8%)	2mo	$2,850,000	$568	50
7850 E EL Sendero Dr #22	0.71mi	5/6.0 (+1)	5,509 (+1%)	17mo	$3,700,000	$672	46
34640 N 79th Way	0.62mi	4/3.5	4,853 (-11%)	5mo	$2,650,000	$546	39
7873 E Sunflower Ct	0.64mi	3/3.5 (-1)	4,738 (-13%)	2mo	$2,600,000	$549	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $444,981
• Equity at exit: $1,449,042

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.33×
• Total profit: $1,485,075
• Equity at exit: $2,644,220

Cash invested: $637,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85377

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $15,606 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$11,930
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$2,844 /mo · $34,125/yr
• Insurance: −$948
• HOA: −$218
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,277
• Net cashflow: $-3,611

Break-even live

Break-even rent $20,177

Max offer price $1,752,491

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,039	-5% $-2,825	+0% $-3,611	+5% $-4,397	+10% $-5,183
Rent	-10% $-4,844	-5% $-4,227	+0% $-3,611	+5% $-2,994	+10% $-2,378
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,465	-0.5pp $-3,032	base $-3,611	+0.5pp $-4,200	+1.0pp $-4,800

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $568,750
• Closing costs: $68,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3000 Ironwood Rd Carefree, AZ	3.0	3.5	3930	$13,400	$3.41	45d	1	0.47mi
34640 N 79th Way Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	3.5	4853	$18,000	$3.71	45d	1	0.64mi
8193 E Sand Flower Dr Scottsdale, AZ	5.0	4.5	3760	$10,000	$2.66	45d	1	0.83mi
34068 N 79th Way Scottsdale, AZ	5.0	5.0	5208	$25,000	$4.80	45d	1	0.96mi
7610 E Soaring Eagle Way Scottsdale, AZ	5.0	5.5	4833	$9,450	$1.96	18d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $218 · $2,616/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $2,275,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $2,275,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $2,275,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $2,275,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $2,275,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-05-07
   price $2,275,000 821-char remark

   Show marketing remark (821 chars)

   One of a kind- Rare Opportunity! Spacious-double customized home- Entertainer's Dream. Flexible floorplan-rooms open to Spectacular desert. Ideal Multi-Generational Home. Tremendous Beamed Great Room with corner of glass - Terrific Indoor-Outdoor living. Ultimate wine room & unique wet bar. Two kitchens, one with Viking appliances. Striking granite counters, also Butler's coffee bar. Quality cabinetry & doors throughout. Sun filled interiors-Views in every direction. Southwestern family room-distinctive fireplace & overlooking spectacular outdoors-patios, pool & spa. Spacious den/office and exercise room-TURNKEY! Most furnishings & art included. New roof-2023. Located within The Boulders-fabulous Resort & Golfing community. Membership optional. Home shows Exceptional Pride of Ownership.

7. 2026-04-13
   price $2,450,000 821-char remark

   Show marketing remark (821 chars)

   One of a kind- Rare Opportunity! Spacious-double customized home- Entertainer's Dream. Flexible floorplan-rooms open to Spectacular desert. Ideal Multi-Generational Home. Tremendous Beamed Great Room with corner of glass - Terrific Indoor-Outdoor living. Ultimate wine room & unique wet bar. Two kitchens, one with Viking appliances. Striking granite counters, also Butler's coffee bar. Quality cabinetry & doors throughout. Sun filled interiors-Views in every direction. Southwestern family room-distinctive fireplace & overlooking spectacular outdoors-patios, pool & spa. Spacious den/office and exercise room-TURNKEY! Most furnishings & art included. New roof-2023. Located within The Boulders-fabulous Resort & Golfing community. Membership optional. Home shows Exceptional Pride of Ownership.

8. 2026-03-20
   listed $2,650,000 Active 821-char remark

   Show marketing remark (821 chars)

   One of a kind- Rare Opportunity! Spacious-double customized home- Entertainer's Dream. Flexible floorplan-rooms open to Spectacular desert. Ideal Multi-Generational Home. Tremendous Beamed Great Room with corner of glass - Terrific Indoor-Outdoor living. Ultimate wine room & unique wet bar. Two kitchens, one with Viking appliances. Striking granite counters, also Butler's coffee bar. Quality cabinetry & doors throughout. Sun filled interiors-Views in every direction. Southwestern family room-distinctive fireplace & overlooking spectacular outdoors-patios, pool & spa. Spacious den/office and exercise room-TURNKEY! Most furnishings & art included. New roof-2023. Located within The Boulders-fabulous Resort & Golfing community. Membership optional. Home shows Exceptional Pride of Ownership.

9. 1990-10-19
   soldstatus $180,000
10. 1983-08-12
    soldstatus $184,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $187,277
• − Mortgage interest: −$127,435
• − Property taxes: −$34,125
• − Insurance: −$11,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$14,982
• − Management: −$14,982
• − HOA: −$2,616
• − Depreciation: −$66,182
• Taxable loss: −$84,420
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$20,261
• After-tax cash flow: $-23,070/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Carefree

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #9958

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carefree, AZ
• City population: 3,452
• Population (ZIP): 3,452

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.13%
• Current HPI: 332.8138
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1136.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $2,275,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $2,450,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $2,650,000 ARMLS
• 1990-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 1983-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $184,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,175 · -5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.