10655 W Anthony Dr · Picture Rocks, AZ 85743

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1999 1.00 ac lot $123/sqft · 27% below area Est $206k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-Bedroom Manufactured Home on an Acre - Peaceful Rural Setting Nestled on a spacious one-acre lot in a quiet rural area, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers comfortable living with room to grow. Enjoy a thoughtful split floor plan that provides added privacy, perfect for families or guests. The home features a functional layout with generous living space and a bright, open kitchen. While the interior is move-in ready, the exterior offers an opportunity for the new owner to add their own touch with some fresh paint. Located on a paved road with easy access, this property combines country living with convenience -- ideal for anyone looking to enjoy wide open spaces wi

Key facts

• Paved road access
• Bright open kitchen
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS ONE ACRE LOT
• THOUGHTFUL SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• BRIGHT OPEN KITCHEN
• PAVED ROAD ACCESS
• COUNTRY LIVING CONVENIENCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $577 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 5.7% in Picture Rocks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#261 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D, schools F.
• Marana Unified District (4404) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 249 in AZ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 236 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $59k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,750 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.48%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $205,994
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -10.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7295 N Desert Post Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+1%)	2mo	$245,000	$199	79
10750 W Anthony Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-5%)	14mo	$255,000	$221	71
11005 W Windchime Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+1%)	8mo	$210,000	$170	65
10450 W Anthony Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-6%)	17mo	$108,500	$95	63
10325 W Anthony Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+1%)	20mo	$232,000	$188	62
7310 N Desert Plains Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+10%)	13mo	$250,000	$186	56
7256 N Ellexson Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,124 (-8%)	11mo	$235,000	$209	53
7585 N Shaggy Tree Ln	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-5%)	18mo	$173,900	$151	49
10281 W Anthony Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+10%)	23mo	$265,000	$197	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $7,672
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $35,443
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85743

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,895 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $858/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $577

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,165

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $662	-5% $619	+0% $577	+5% $534	+10% $492
Rent	-10% $427	-5% $502	+0% $577	+5% $652	+10% $726
Rate	-1.0pp $652	-0.5pp $615	base $577	+0.5pp $538	+1.0pp $498

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $150,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
14. 2026-06-02
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $150,000 Active 1 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    historical
16. 2026-01-04
    price $185,000
17. 2025-11-24
    price $190,000
18. 2025-10-23
    price $195,000
19. 2025-08-16
    price $199,000
20. 2025-07-23
    listed $209,000 Active
21. 2024-03-25
    soldstatus $185,000
22. 2019-12-30
    historical
23. 2019-09-18
    price $119,900
24. 2019-08-02
    price $126,900
25. 2019-07-24
    listed $129,900 Active
26. 2010-04-16
    soldstatus $85,000
27. 2009-12-30
    historical
28. 2007-12-10
    listed $49,000
29. 2004-11-12
    soldstatus $165,000
30. 2004-02-23
    historical
31. 2003-03-12
    listed $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $858 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $990 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$132/yr (+$11/mo · 15.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,743
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$858
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,819
• − Management: −$1,819
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $4,730
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,135
• After-tax cash flow: $5,784/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marana Unified District (4404)
• NCES district ID: 0404630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,282
• Composite: 30.96/100
• National rank: #6103
• State rank: #83 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Picture Rocks

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #23370

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Picture Rocks, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 31,300
• Household income: $90,093
• Rent vs Own: 13.7% rent · 86.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 378.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.76%
• Current HPI: 271.2845
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.47%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+85.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-04 Price Changed $185,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $190,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $195,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-08-16 Price Changed $199,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-07-23 Listed $209,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2019-12-30 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2019-09-18 Price Changed $119,900 MLSSAZ
• 2019-08-02 Price Changed $126,900 MLSSAZ
• 2019-07-24 Listed $129,900 MLSSAZ
• 2010-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2009-12-30 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2007-12-10 Listed $49,000 MLSSAZ
• 2004-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2004-02-23 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2003-03-12 Listed $100,000 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $858 · -7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.