9920 Wimico Ter · Ruskin, FL 34219

$350,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,665 sqft · Land · 11 Days on market

Built 2026 7,949 sqft lot $135/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Receive up to $20,000 towards Flex Cash & Closing Costs + special interest rates with the use of our preferred lender - now through February 15th. A front porch welcomes to you into one-story all concrete block construction home. Designed to optimizes living space with an open concept kitchen that overlooks the versatile great room and large covered lanai. The well-appointed kitchen features an island with bar seating, oversized walk-in pantry and sleek stainless-steel appliances! Bedroom one is located behind the kitchen and has an ensuite bathroom with double vanity and spacious walk-in closet providing substantial storage space. A second bedroom and bath are loc

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Versatile great room
• Front porch

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• ONE-STORY
• CONCRETE BLOCK CONSTRUCTION
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• VERSATILE GREAT ROOM
• LARGE COVERED LANAI

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $351k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-198/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $348k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $283k (19.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $283k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbara A Harvey Elementary School (math 74% / reading 59%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 1,069 students, 33% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $283,026 (19.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.20%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-66,284
• Equity at exit: $52,334

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-91,384
• Equity at exit: $30,347

Cash invested: $98,277 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,830 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,841
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,566/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$135
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$594
• Net cashflow: $-16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,851

Max offer price $348,078

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $182	-5% $83	+0% $-16	+5% $-116	+10% $-215
Rent	-10% $-240	-5% $-128	+0% $-16	+5% $95	+10% $207
Rate	-1.0pp $160	-0.5pp $73	base $-16	+0.5pp $-107	+1.0pp $-200

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,748
• Closing costs: $10,530
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9928 Wimico Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,450	$1.63	18d	1	0.03mi
10048 Big Marsh Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	2034	$2,825	$1.39	25d	1	0.39mi
12067 Kingsley Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,495	$1.22	5d	1	0.54mi
11884 Little River Way Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	2142	$3,250	$1.52	18d	1	0.54mi
11880 Little River Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1635	$2,650	$1.62	25d	1	0.54mi
11512 Gallatin Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1929	$3,300	$1.71	25d	1	0.58mi
11454 Gallatin Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1635	$2,575	$1.57	18d	1	0.61mi
8522 Canyon Creek Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1822	$2,000	$1.10	25d	1	1.00mi
8423 Canyon Creek Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1823	$2,400	$1.32	25d	1	1.00mi
8443 Canyon Creek Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	2178	$2,000	$0.92	25d	1	1.01mi
8544 Canyon Creek Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1822	$2,300	$1.26	13d	1	1.01mi
11567 84th Street Cir E #105 Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,999	$1.41	5d	1	1.02mi
11522 84th Street Cir E #105 Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1588	$2,300	$1.45	25d	1	1.08mi
11523 84th Street Cir E #105 Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1588	$1,950	$1.23	5d	1	1.12mi
8123 Trimbelle Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1722	$2,850	$1.66	18d	1	1.16mi
11230 82nd St E Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1758	$2,495	$1.42	18d	1	1.42mi
12573 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,500	$1.65	5d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $135 · $1,620/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-02-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-29
   listed $350,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,566 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,913 · $243/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,347/yr (+$112/mo · 86.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,963
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,661
• − Property taxes: −$1,566
• − Insurance: −$1,755
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,717
• − Management: −$2,717
• − HOA: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$10,211
• Taxable loss: −$6,284
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,508
• After-tax cash flow: $1,310/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Listed $350,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,566 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.