41 Broadway · Shirley, NY 11967

$489,990

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,037 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1976 5,663 sqft lot Est $477k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come see this 3bedroom Colonial sitting on double LOT. .. .. .. .. .goes from road to road. Hardwood Floor thru-out, Top of the line Heating System "Buderus" with Riello Burner. SS Appliances, Large property, Family Room with wood burning fireplace, CAC, Close to all Major Highways and Schools,

Key facts

• 5,663 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1976

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $490k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-831 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $343k (29.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $354k (27.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $343k (29.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#886 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: William Floyd Elementary School (math 48% / reading 54%, grade C-, #1,047 of 2,108 statewide, top 50%, 742 students, 54% FRL); William Floyd Middle School (math 36% / reading 47%, grade F, #394 of 729 statewide, top 55%, 1,053 students, 54% FRL); William Floyd High School (math 65% / reading 87%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 3,013 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($483k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $490k implies a 238% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $343,278 (29.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.26%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $477,020
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21 Broadway	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-3%)	8mo	$460,000	$456	82
46 Broadway	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+11%)	6mo	$530,000	$460	72
33 Broadway St	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	936 (-10%)	4mo	$530,000	$566	71
19 Windus Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,008 (-3%)	3mo	$550,000	$546	66
20 Hounslow Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,176 (+13%)	7mo	$485,000	$412	64
36 Flintlock Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,064 (+3%)	3mo	$525,000	$493	60
53 Corbin Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,169 (+13%)	6mo	$550,000	$470	57
33 Wood Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,160 (+12%)	0mo	$550,000	$474	49
70 Patchogue Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,130 (+9%)	5mo	$496,500	$439	47
4 Windus Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,152 (+11%)	5mo	$435,000	$378	43
22 Garden Pl	0.53mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,182 (+14%)	3mo	$475,000	$402	41
54 Meadowmere Ave	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,190 (+15%)	7mo	$475,000	$399	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-132,095
• Equity at exit: $73,059

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.33×
• Total profit: $-182,327
• Equity at exit: $42,365

Cash invested: $137,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11967

• Home prices YoY: -33.1%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,536 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,570
• Tax from tax record: −$850 /mo · $10,202/yr
• Insurance: −$204
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$743
• Net cashflow: $-831

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,587

Max offer price $343,278

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-553	-5% $-692	+0% $-831	+5% $-969	+10% $-1,108
Rent	-10% $-1,110	-5% $-970	+0% $-831	+5% $-691	+10% $-551
Rate	-1.0pp $-584	-0.5pp $-706	base $-831	+0.5pp $-957	+1.0pp $-1,087

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $122,498
• Closing costs: $14,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14 Titmus Dr Mastic, NY	4.0	1.0	1428	$3,800	$2.66	46d	1	1.03mi
35 Auborn Ave Shirley, NY	3.0	1.0	1140	$3,600	$3.16	0d	1	1.11mi
48 Eleanor Ave Mastic, NY	3.0	1.0	975	$3,500	$3.59	26d	1	1.16mi
61 Gores Dr Mastic, NY	4.0	2.0	1397	$4,200	$3.01	0d	1	1.18mi
118 Oak Ave Apt C Shirley, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$2,400	$3.00	0d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-03-02
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-15
   listed $489,990 Active
3. 2025-12-02
   historical $489,990
4. 2025-10-01
   status Pending
5. 2025-10-01
   historical
6. 2025-08-13
   price $499,999
7. 2025-07-21
   listed $549,999 Active
8. 2001-09-24
   soldstatus $145,000
9. 1995-11-13
   soldstatus $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,202 · $850/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,202 · $850/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,431
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,447
• − Property taxes: −$10,202
• − Insurance: −$2,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,394
• − Management: −$3,394
• − Depreciation: −$14,254
• Taxable loss: −$18,711
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,491
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,475/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Shirley

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #886
• US rank: #17184

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shirley, NY
• City population: 27,266
• Population (ZIP): 27,266

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.21%
• Current HPI: 428.8362
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+345.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-15 Listed $489,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Coming Soon $489,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $499,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-21 Listed $549,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 1995-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,202 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.