365 SW Whitetail Cir · Lake City, FL 32024

$208,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 73 Days on market

Built 2010 0.37 ac lot Est $226k · 7% under $8/mo HOA ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move in ready! Close to town and all amenities. Open floorplan with nice sized bedrooms, laminate flooring, stainless appliances, handicapped modifications, covered carport, and shed. Large backporch overlooks the well manicured, fenced-in yard. Enjoy morning coffee on the covered front porch. * Seller to offer credit for new roof at closing.

Key facts

• Jacuzzi walk-in tub
• Open floor plan
• Tile countertops

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CUSTOM TILE WORK
• TILE COUNTERTOPS
• UPDATED PRIMARY BATH
• CUSTOM TILE SHOWER
• JACUZZI WALK-IN TUB

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $100 (about $8.33/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached parking
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property; Zoned MH-3
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Chain link fence; Shed(s); Workshop; Irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $232 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (10.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.7% in Lake City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#304 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 206 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $58k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $43k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,789 (10.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.75%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $225,680
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
365 SW Whitetail Cir	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,456 (0%)	17mo	$225,000	$155	86
530 SW Whitetail Cir	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-4%)	11mo	$195,000	$139	80
136 SW Nathan Ct	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-7%)	4mo	$229,000	$169	79
157 SW Trey Way	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-4%)	10mo	$258,846	$184	78
140 SW Doe Gln	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+7%)	22mo	$185,000	$119	58
155 SW Aloe Ct	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-11%)	23mo	$155,000	$120	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.20×
• Total profit: $128,444
• Equity at exit: $188,194

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.27×
• Total profit: $366,460
• Equity at exit: $405,847

Cash invested: $58,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32024

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,878 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,095
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $735/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,585

Max offer price $208,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $350	-5% $291	+0% $232	+5% $173	+10% $114
Rent	-10% $83	-5% $158	+0% $232	+5% $306	+10% $380
Rate	-1.0pp $337	-0.5pp $285	base $232	+0.5pp $178	+1.0pp $123

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,225
• Closing costs: $6,267
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-12
   days on market $208,900 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $208,900 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $208,900 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $208,900 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $223,900 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $223,900 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $223,900 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $223,900 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $223,900 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $223,900 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-05-13
    price $230,000
12. 2026-04-28
    price $242,000
13. 2026-04-21
    price $249,000
14. 2026-03-31
    listed $252,000 Active
15. 2024-12-21
    historical Active Under Contract 344-char remark

    Show marketing remark (344 chars)

    Move in ready! Close to town and all amenities. Open floorplan with nice sized bedrooms, laminate flooring, stainless appliances, handicapped modifications, covered carport, and shed. Large backporch overlooks the well manicured, fenced-in yard. Enjoy morning coffee on the covered front porch. * Seller to offer credit for new roof at closing.

16. 2024-12-21
    soldstatus $225,000 Closed 344-char remark

    Show marketing remark (344 chars)

    Move in ready! Close to town and all amenities. Open floorplan with nice sized bedrooms, laminate flooring, stainless appliances, handicapped modifications, covered carport, and shed. Large backporch overlooks the well manicured, fenced-in yard. Enjoy morning coffee on the covered front porch. * Seller to offer credit for new roof at closing.

17. 2024-12-10
    listed $225,000 Active 344-char remark

    Show marketing remark (344 chars)

    Move in ready! Close to town and all amenities. Open floorplan with nice sized bedrooms, laminate flooring, stainless appliances, handicapped modifications, covered carport, and shed. Large backporch overlooks the well manicured, fenced-in yard. Enjoy morning coffee on the covered front porch. * Seller to offer credit for new roof at closing.

18. 2005-03-07
    soldstatus $272,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $735 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,734 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: +$999/yr (+$83/mo · 135.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,535
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,702
• − Property taxes: −$735
• − Insurance: −$1,044
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,803
• − Management: −$1,803
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$6,077
• Taxable loss: −$725
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$174
• After-tax cash flow: $2,955/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia
• NCES district ID: 1200360
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,053
• Composite: 44.74/100
• National rank: #2750
• State rank: #25 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #5154

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 40,507
• Population (ZIP): 20,644

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,129 people
• By 2030: 67,501 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 65,465 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 63,058 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 56,291 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 45,243 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Portuguese 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 24.6% · R 74.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.05%
• Current HPI: 269.4659
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-15.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $230,000 NFMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $242,000 NFMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $249,000 NFMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $252,000 NFMLS
• 2024-12-21 Contingent — NFMLS
• 2024-12-21 Sold (MLS) $225,000 NFMLS
• 2024-12-10 Listed $225,000 NFMLS
• 2005-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $272,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $735 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.