Eastgate Plan · Cove, TX 77523

$291,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,899 sqft · SingleFamily · 558 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

As you step through the front door of the comfortable and versatile Eastgate, you will be greeted by a wide-open living space highlighted by a large kitchen with an island that extends into a dining room and a spacious gathering room. The owner's suite is spacious and features an oversized walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Large kitchen
• Dining room
• Island

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• ISLAND
• DINING ROOM
• SPACIOUS GATHERING ROOM
• OVERSIZED WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $291,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $314,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $292k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-321 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 1018 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 40d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 558 days — a 12% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $234,958 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 558 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.36%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $314,990
• List price: $291,990
• Delta: -7.30%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6814 Bens Lndg	0.36mi	4/2.5	1,850 (-3%)	0mo	$269,790	$146	76
6714 Pebble Bluff Ct	0.29mi	4/3.0	2,024 (+7%)	2mo	$325,990	$161	74
603 Louis Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,777 (-6%)	2mo	$269,210	$151	73
6718 Pebble Bluff Ct	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,080 (+10%)	1mo	$345,990	$166	69
6826 Bens Lndg	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,029 (+7%)	3mo	$289,820	$143	67
6822 Bens Lndg	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,777 (-6%)	2mo	$295,100	$166	66
6710 Pebble Bluff Ct	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,727 (-9%)	3mo	$314,990	$182	65
6926 Bens Lndg	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,029 (+7%)	3mo	$320,180	$158	64
102 Pacific Way	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,029 (+7%)	2mo	$314,530	$155	58
603 Walnut Branch Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,697 (-11%)	1mo	$299,000	$176	49
411 Walnut Branch Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,697 (-11%)	1mo	$287,500	$169	42
14507 Sweet Water Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,636 (-14%)	2mo	$289,000	$177	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-70,432
• Equity at exit: $46,966

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-83,358
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 71 active · 51 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.2 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $324,500 ($175/sqft)
• Median days on market: 71 d
• This list price: 21% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -5.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 1018
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,350 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$394 /mo · $4,725/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $-321

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,755

Max offer price $268,590

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-103	-5% $-212	+0% $-321	+5% $-429	+10% $-538
Rent	-10% $-506	-5% $-413	+0% $-321	+5% $-228	+10% $-135
Rate	-1.0pp $-162	-0.5pp $-241	base $-321	+0.5pp $-402	+1.0pp $-485

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,748
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14930 Spring Forest Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,750	$1.50	139d	1	0.65mi
14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,395	$1.32	97d	1	0.66mi
5914 Treasure Cove Rd Cove, TX	3.0	3.0	2042	$1,645	$0.81	10d	1	0.74mi
15114 Diamond Way Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,671	$1.11	74d	1	0.85mi
15214 Harlin Baytown, TX	4.0	3.0	2139	$2,400	$1.12	75d	1	0.86mi
131 Brazos Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1857	$2,211	$1.19	54d	1	0.89mi
5822 Sapphire Lagoon Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,935	$1.45	3d	1	0.91mi
5822 Sapphire Lagoon Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,935	$1.45	11d	1	0.91mi
5719 Rainbow Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1415	$1,479	$1.05	38d	1	0.92mi
15218 Arnold Cove, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,300	$1.31	38d	1	0.96mi
5823 Littoral Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,916	$1.36	29d	1	0.99mi
5815 Littoral Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,886	$1.45	39d	1	1.00mi
5727 Littoral Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.5	1882	$2,036	$1.08	39d	1	1.04mi
8015 Distant Harbor Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,801	$1.27	54d	1	1.06mi
8411 Hannah Rd Cove, TX	4.0	2.5	2329	$2,236	$0.96	39d	1	1.12mi
8414 Liberty Sky Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$2,036	$1.00	10d	1	1.13mi
14143 Medina Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,495	$1.19	33d	1	1.19mi
5142 Cotton Lake Rd Cove, TX	5.0	2.0	2432	$1,975	$0.81	7d	1	1.28mi
50A Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	5.0	2.0	2432	$1,975	$0.81	67d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $291,990 Active 558 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $291,990 Active 557 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $291,990 Active 556 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $291,990 Active 555 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $291,990 Active 554 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $291,990 Active 553 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $291,990 Active 552 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $291,990 Active 551 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $291,990 Active 550 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $291,990 Active 549 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $291,990 Active 548 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $291,990 Active 547 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $291,990 Active 546 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $291,990 Active 540 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $291,990 Active 539 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $291,990 Active 537 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $291,990 Active 535 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $291,990 Active 533 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $291,990 Active 532 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $291,990 Active 531 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $291,990 Active 529 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $291,990 Active 528 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $291,990 Active 527 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $291,990 Active 526 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $291,990 Active 525 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $291,990 Active 524 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $291,990 Active 523 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $291,990 Active 522 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $291,990 Active 521 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $291,990 Active 520 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $291,990 Active 519 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $291,990 Active 518 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $291,990 Active 517 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $291,990 Active 516 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $291,990 Active 515 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $291,990 Active 514 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $291,990 Active 513 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $291,990 Active 512 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $291,990 Active 510 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $291,990 Active 509 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $291,990 Active 508 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $291,990 Active 507 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $291,990 Active 504 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $291,990 Active 502 DOM
45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $291,990 Active 501 DOM
46. 2026-07-26
    days on market $291,990 Active 499 DOM
47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $291,990 Active 497 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $291,990 Active 496 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $291,990 Active 495 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $291,990 Active 494 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,195
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,644
• − Property taxes: −$4,725
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,256
• − Management: −$2,256
• − Depreciation: −$9,163
• Taxable loss: −$9,424
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,262
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,586/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and some smart home upgrades to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value ↑
• Resale Replace countertops with quartz or granite — Quartz or granite countertops are durable and add value ↑
• Both Install smart home technology — Smart home technology can increase both resale and rental value ↑

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Cove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #766
• US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 46,946 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

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Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $291,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-11 Price Changed $289,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $301,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-15 Listed $299,990 Zillow