Eastgate Plan · Cove, TX 77523

$291,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,899 sqft · SingleFamily · 461 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

As you step through the front door of the comfortable and versatile Eastgate, you will be greeted by a wide-open living space highlighted by a large kitchen with an island that extends into a dining room and a spacious gathering room. The owner's suite is spacious and features an oversized walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Large kitchen
• Dining room
• Island

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• ISLAND
• DINING ROOM
• SPACIOUS GATHERING ROOM
• OVERSIZED WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $291,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $316,816.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $292k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-93 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 776 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 461 days — a 12% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $256,951 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 461 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.26%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $316,816
• List price: $291,990
• Delta: -7.84%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6714 Camila St	0.12mi	4/3.0	1,899 (0%)	4mo	$338,930	$178	91
510 Louis Ln	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,937 (+2%)	2mo	$303,440	$157	82
6702 Augusta Greens Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,866 (-2%)	2mo	$334,990	$180	76
6714 Augusta Greens Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,790 (-6%)	2mo	$324,990	$182	68
6743 Camila St	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,682 (-11%)	2mo	$284,000	$169	65
7106 Thomas James Ct	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,777 (-6%)	1mo	$297,690	$168	61
14603 Rain Tree Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,821 (-4%)	2mo	$308,000	$169	57
6818 Bens Lndg	0.39mi	4/2.5	1,642 (-14%)	1mo	$269,800	$164	57
14923 Spring Forest Ln	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,829 (-4%)	2mo	$299,000	$163	57
6922 Bens Lndg	0.47mi	4/2.5	1,642 (-14%)	1mo	$269,180	$164	53
1815 Magnolia Bnd	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,100 (+11%)	0mo	$410,000	$195	48
14915 Spring Forest Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,660 (-13%)	3mo	$307,000	$185	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-56,099
• Equity at exit: $47,238

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-51,659
• Equity at exit: $27,392

Cash invested: $88,708 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 776
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,654 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,661
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$396 /mo · $4,752/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$557
• Net cashflow: $-93

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,771

Max offer price $303,350

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,204
• Closing costs: $9,504
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14930 Spring Forest Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,750	$1.50	43d	1	0.65mi
14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,395	$1.32	1d	1	0.66mi
5815 Littoral Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,845	$1.41	19d	1	1.00mi
8411 Hannah Rd Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2329	$2,195	$0.94	24d	1	1.12mi
8414 Liberty Sky Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$2,095	$1.02	24d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $291,990 Active 461 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $291,990 Active 460 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $291,990 Active 459 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $291,990 Active 458 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $291,990 Active 456 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $291,990 Active 452 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $291,990 Active 451 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $291,990 Active 450 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $291,990 Active 447 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $291,990 Active 446 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $291,990 Active 445 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $291,990 Active 444 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $291,990 Active 443 DOM
14. 2026-04-08
    price $291,990 306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (306 chars)

    As you step through the front door of the comfortable and versatile Eastgate, you will be greeted by a wide-open living space highlighted by a large kitchen with an island that extends into a dining room and a spacious gathering room. The owner's suite is spacious and features an oversized walk-in closet.

15. 2026-01-11
    price $289,990 306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (306 chars)

    As you step through the front door of the comfortable and versatile Eastgate, you will be greeted by a wide-open living space highlighted by a large kitchen with an island that extends into a dining room and a spacious gathering room. The owner's suite is spacious and features an oversized walk-in closet.

16. 2025-06-13
    price $301,990 306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (306 chars)

    As you step through the front door of the comfortable and versatile Eastgate, you will be greeted by a wide-open living space highlighted by a large kitchen with an island that extends into a dining room and a spacious gathering room. The owner's suite is spacious and features an oversized walk-in closet.

17. 2025-03-15
    listed $299,990 Active 306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (306 chars)

    As you step through the front door of the comfortable and versatile Eastgate, you will be greeted by a wide-open living space highlighted by a large kitchen with an island that extends into a dining room and a spacious gathering room. The owner's suite is spacious and features an oversized walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,844
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,747
• − Property taxes: −$4,752
• − Insurance: −$1,584
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,548
• − Management: −$2,548
• − Depreciation: −$9,216
• Taxable loss: −$6,551
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,572
• After-tax cash flow: $455/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and some smart home upgrades to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value
• Resale Replace countertops with quartz or granite — Quartz or granite countertops are durable and add value
• Both Install smart home technology — Smart home technology can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value ↑
• Resale Replace countertops with quartz or granite — Quartz or granite countertops are durable and add value ↑
• Both Install smart home technology — Smart home technology can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #766
• US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $291,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-11 Price Changed $289,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $301,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-15 Listed $299,990 Zillow