Is Eastgate Plan in Cove, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D- with a 5.0% cap rate and $-338/mo modeled cash flow at a $291,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Eastgate Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 5.0% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,358/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

D- Composite 37.27

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +7.9/30.0
ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Schools +6.2/10.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
Rent growth +3.4/5.0
Livability +3.2/5.0
1% rule +2.4/10.0
DSCR +2.0/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$291,990

Eastgate Plan · Cove, TX 77523

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,899 sqft · SingleFamily · 604 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 3% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

As you step through the front door of the comfortable and versatile Eastgate, you will be greeted by a wide-open living space highlighted by a large kitchen with an island that extends into a dining room and a spacious gathering room. The owner's suite is spacious and features an oversized walk-in closet.

Key facts

Large kitchen
Dining room
Island

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $292k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-338 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (7.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (19.2% below list).
Recommended offer: $236k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 1127 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 75d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 604 days — a 12% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $235,829 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 604 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.74% ✗
Cap rate: 5.02%
Cash-on-cash: -4.55%
DSCR: 0.80
GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $318,519
List price: $291,990
Delta: -8.33%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6722 Camila St	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,937 (+2%)	1mo	$319,350	$165	85
6814 Bens Lndg	0.36mi	4/2.5	1,850 (-3%)	2mo	$269,790	$146	75
6714 Pebble Bluff Ct	0.29mi	4/3.0	2,024 (+7%)	3mo	$325,990	$161	73
6718 Camila St	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,682 (-11%)	1mo	$319,530	$190	70
7114 Thomas James Ct	0.52mi	4/2.5	1,850 (-3%)	1mo	$307,010	$166	69
6718 Pebble Bluff Ct	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,080 (+10%)	2mo	$345,990	$166	68
6822 Bens Lndg	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,777 (-6%)	3mo	$295,100	$166	64
14727 Sweet Water Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,845 (-3%)	0mo	$285,000	$154	61
603 Walnut Branch Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,697 (-11%)	2mo	$299,000	$176	48
411 Walnut Branch Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,697 (-11%)	2mo	$287,500	$169	41
14507 Sweet Water Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,636 (-14%)	3mo	$289,000	$177	37
407 Turtle Oak Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,636 (-14%)	1mo	$287,500	$176	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -23.5%
Equity multiple: 0.19×
Total profit: $-72,116
Equity at exit: $47,492

10-year hold

IRR: -17.3%
Equity multiple: 0.03×
Total profit: $-86,244
Equity at exit: $27,540

Cash invested: $89,185 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 82 active · 55 under contract
Months of supply: 10.7 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $320,995 ($170/sqft)
Median days on market: 71 d
This list price: 21% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -1.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77523

Home prices YoY: -31.5%
Rents YoY: 3.4%
Active inventory: 1127
Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,358 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,670
Tax est. 1.5%: −$398 /mo · $4,778/yr
Insurance: −$133
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
Net cashflow: $-338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,786

Max offer price $269,586

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-118	-5% $-228	+0% $-338	+5% $-448	+10% $-558
Rent	-10% $-524	-5% $-431	+0% $-338	+5% $-245	+10% $-152
Rate	-1.0pp $-178	-0.5pp $-257	base $-338	+0.5pp $-421	+1.0pp $-505

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $79,630
Closing costs: $9,556
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14930 Spring Forest Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,750	$1.50	184d	1	0.65mi
14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,395	$1.32	142d	1	0.66mi
14415 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2428	$2,525	$1.04	45d	1	0.69mi
5914 Golden Cove Rd Cove, TX	4.0	2.5	2326	$2,245	$0.97	5d	1	0.71mi
5914 Treasure Cove Rd Cove, TX	3.0	3.0	2042	$1,645	$0.81	55d	1	0.74mi
15114 Diamond Way Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,671	$1.11	119d	1	0.85mi
15214 Harlin Baytown, TX	4.0	3.0	2139	$2,400	$1.12	121d	1	0.86mi
131 Brazos Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1857	$2,211	$1.19	99d	1	0.89mi
5822 Sapphire Lagoon Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,800	$1.35	9d	1	0.91mi
5822 Sapphire Lagoon Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,935	$1.45	48d	1	0.91mi
5719 Rainbow Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1415	$1,479	$1.05	10d	1	0.92mi
15218 Arnold Cove, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,300	$1.31	83d	1	0.96mi
5823 Littoral Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,916	$1.36	74d	1	0.99mi
5815 Littoral Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,886	$1.45	85d	1	1.00mi
5727 Littoral Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.5	1882	$2,036	$1.08	85d	1	1.04mi
8015 Distant Harbor Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,801	$1.27	99d	1	1.06mi
8003 Crustacean Rd Cove, TX	4.0	2.5	2326	$1,989	$0.86	10d	1	1.09mi
8411 Hannah Rd Cove, TX	4.0	2.5	2329	$2,236	$0.96	85d	1	1.12mi
8414 Liberty Sky Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$1,986	$0.97	21d	1	1.13mi
8414 Liberty Sky Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$1,945	$0.95	1d	1	1.13mi
14143 Medina Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,495	$1.19	78d	1	1.19mi
5142 Cotton Lake Rd Cove, TX	5.0	2.0	2432	$1,975	$0.81	9d	1	1.28mi
5142 Cotton Lake Rd Cove, TX	5.0	2.0	2432	$1,975	$0.81	53d	1	1.28mi
50A Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	5.0	2.0	2432	$1,975	$0.81	10d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $291,990 Active 604 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $291,990 Active 603 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $291,990 Active 602 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $291,990 Active 601 DOM
2026-11-04

days on market $291,990 Active 600 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $291,990 Active 598 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $291,990 Active 597 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $291,990 Active 596 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $291,990 Active 595 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $291,990 Active 594 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $291,990 Active 593 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $291,990 Active 592 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $291,990 Active 591 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $291,990 Active 590 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $291,990 Active 589 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $291,990 Active 588 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $291,990 Active 587 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $291,990 Active 586 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $291,990 Active 585 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $291,990 Active 584 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $291,990 Active 583 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $291,990 Active 582 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $291,990 Active 581 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $291,990 Active 580 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $291,990 Active 579 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $291,990 Active 578 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $291,990 Active 577 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $291,990 Active 576 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $291,990 Active 575 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $291,990 Active 574 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $291,990 Active 573 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $291,990 Active 572 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $291,990 Active 571 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $291,990 Active 570 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $291,990 Active 569 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $291,990 Active 568 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $291,990 Active 567 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $291,990 Active 566 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $291,990 Active 565 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $291,990 Active 564 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $291,990 Active 563 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $291,990 Active 562 DOM
2026-09-26

days on market $291,990 Active 561 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $291,990 Active 560 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $291,990 Active 559 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $291,990 Active 558 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $291,990 Active 557 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $291,990 Active 556 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $291,990 Active 555 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $291,990 Active 554 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $28,299
− Mortgage interest: −$17,842
− Property taxes: −$4,778
− Insurance: −$1,593
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,264
− Management: −$2,264
− Depreciation: −$9,266
Taxable loss: −$9,707

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,330
After-tax cash flow: $-1,728/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and some smart home upgrades to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value ↑
Resale Replace countertops with quartz or granite — Quartz or granite countertops are durable and add value ↑
Both Install smart home technology — Smart home technology can increase both resale and rental value ↑

Schools (NCES district)

District: Barbers Hill ISD
NCES district ID: 4809450
Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
Median HH income: $87,257
Composite: 61.73/100
National rank: #737
State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Cove

Score: 64/100
State rank: #766
US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Chambers County · 46,946 people
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 30,186
Household income: $124,188
Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 46,946 people
By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
Current HPI: 222.6999
Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

2026-04-08 Price Changed $291,990 Zillow
2026-01-11 Price Changed $289,990 Zillow
2025-06-13 Price Changed $301,990 Zillow
2025-03-15 Listed $299,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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