6436 W Saddlehorn Rd · Phoenix, AZ 85083

$455,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,287 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1999 5,288 sqft lot $354/sqft · at area comps Est $469k · at est. $52/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Recently updated 2-bedroom 2 bath home with office/den in the highly desirable Entrada neighborhood! This gem offers single story comfortable living and is entertainment friendly! 2 sliding doors to the backyard and play pool for a convenient indoor/outdoor flow. New upgrades include backyard artificial turf, backyard pavers, fresh paint, newly framed and modern entertainment wall, electric fireplace, new carpets, tankless water heater, and more. AC unit installed in 2022. Highly desirable and convenient location nearby major freeways, top gyms, top retail centers, top restaurants, and much more!

Key facts

• Backyard pavers
• Indoor outdoor flow
• Electric fireplace

Tags

• SINGLE STORY LIVING
• INDOOR OUTDOOR FLOW
• BACKYARD ARTIFICIAL TURF
• BACKYARD PAVERS
• MODERN ENTERTAINMENT WALL
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Conventional financing available
• HOA & community: Community association with quarterly fee of $156; Association maintains grounds; Association rules prohibit visible trucks, trailers, RVs, and boats

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 3 open parking spaces; RV gate; 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and wood frame construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Private play pool; Desert front yard; Synthetic grass in back; Block fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Space for 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Central air
• Interior features: Double vanity; Full bath in master bedroom; Tankless hot water heater; Fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $455k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-812 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $312k (31.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (45.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (45.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $49k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $46k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$78k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($448k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $375k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $247,219 (45.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.65%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 15.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $469,161
• List price: $455,000
• Delta: -3.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6530 W Prickly Pear Trl	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-0%)	4mo	$420,000	$328	81
6136 W Fallen Leaf Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,287 (0%)	19mo	$429,900	$334	63
6744 W Crabapple Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+5%)	17mo	$446,000	$330	62
24630 N 65th Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,436 (+12%)	8mo	$500,000	$348	55
6613 W Avenida Del Rey --	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,480 (+15%)	15mo	$485,000	$328	54
6308 W Villa Linda Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,436 (+12%)	23mo	$468,000	$326	47
6526 W West Wind Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,480 (+15%)	13mo	$520,000	$351	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $194,144
• Equity at exit: $409,900

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.78×
• Total profit: $608,542
• Equity at exit: $883,965

Cash invested: $127,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85083

• Home prices YoY: 5.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 15.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,472 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,386
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,648/yr
• Insurance: −$190
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $-812

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,500

Max offer price $311,572

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-554	-5% $-683	+0% $-812	+5% $-941	+10% $-1,069
Rent	-10% $-1,007	-5% $-910	+0% $-812	+5% $-714	+10% $-617
Rate	-1.0pp $-583	-0.5pp $-696	base $-812	+0.5pp $-930	+1.0pp $-1,050

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $113,750
• Closing costs: $13,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6424 W Saddlehorn Rd Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1647	$2,195	$1.33	8d	1	0.03mi
6504 W Saddlehorn Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1258	$2,245	$1.78	5d	1	0.06mi
6602 W Desert Hollow Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1571	$2,150	$1.37	19d	1	0.16mi
6602 W Desert Hollow Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1571	$2,150	$1.37	3d	1	0.16mi
6611 W Desert Hollow Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1571	$2,350	$1.50	25d	1	0.19mi
6427 W Villa Linda Dr Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,150	$1.40	44d	1	0.31mi
24616 N 65th Ave Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1576	$2,300	$1.46	0d	1	0.47mi
25014 N 68th Ave Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,350	$1.47	44d	1	0.47mi
6124 W Whispering Wind Dr Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1305	$2,295	$1.76	44d	1	0.61mi
6889 W Paso Trl Peoria, AZ	4.0	2.0	1854	$2,450	$1.32	14d	1	0.68mi
27513 N 63rd Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1866	$2,395	$1.28	16d	1	1.37mi
5310 W Chisum Trl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1719	$2,195	$1.28	0d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectricpoolgym

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-29
   listed $468,500 Active 790-char remark
2. 2025-08-08
   soldstatus $375,000
3. 2025-07-28
   historical
4. 2025-07-25
   price $399,900
5. 2025-07-21
   status Active
6. 2025-07-18
   historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
7. 2025-07-12
   price $415,000
8. 2025-07-05
   price $418,000
9. 2025-06-16
   price $425,000
10. 2025-06-11
    price $430,000
11. 2025-05-29
    price $435,000
12. 2025-05-18
    listed $436,800 Active
13. 2003-11-13
    soldstatus $158,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,648 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,003 · $250/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,355/yr (+$113/mo · 82.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥111°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,666
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,487
• − Property taxes: −$1,648
• − Insurance: −$2,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,373
• − Management: −$2,373
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$13,236
• Taxable loss: −$18,350
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,404
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Valley Unified District (4246)
• NCES district ID: 0407750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $72,516
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2346
• State rank: #33 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 21,022
• Household income: $149,087
• Rent vs Own: 10.5% rent · 89.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 81.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Asian 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Scandinavian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.78%
• Current HPI: 289.2128
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+187.1% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $455,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $468,500 ARMLS
• 2025-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $375,000 Public Records
• 2025-07-28 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $399,900 ARMLS
• 2025-07-21 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-07-18 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2025-07-12 Price Changed $415,000 ARMLS
• 2025-07-05 Price Changed $418,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-16 Price Changed $425,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-11 Price Changed $430,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed $435,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-18 Listed $436,800 ARMLS
• 2003-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $158,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,648 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.