4154 Beamer Dr · Forney, TX 75126

$319,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,837 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 7,884 sqft lot $174/sqft · 10% below area Est $356k · 10% under $55/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence in a highly sought-after neighborhood in Forney. Perfectly blending small-town charm with modern comfort, this home offers an inviting open-concept layout designed for both everyday living and entertaining. The interior has been freshly painted, creating a bright and welcoming atmosphere throughout. The spacious kitchen features gas appliances and seamlessly flows into the living and dining areas, making it the heart of the home. Step outside to a large backyard with plenty of room to relax, play, or create your own outdoor oasis. Whether you’re hosting gatherings or enjoying a quiet evening at home, this property offers the space and versatility to fit your lifestyle. Don’t miss your opportunity to own a beautiful home in a growing community with convenient access to shopping, dining, and major highways.

Key facts

• Gas appliances
• Spacious kitchen
• Large backyard

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• GAS APPLIANCES
• LARGE BACKYARD
• OUTDOOR OASIS
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-329 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (18.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $290k (9.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $262k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Johnson El (math 57% / reading 50%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 694 students, 36% FRL); Warren Middle (math 43% / reading 50%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 903 students, 26% FRL); Forney H S (math 64% / reading 58%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,272 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $261,711 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.41%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $356,302
• List price: $319,900
• Delta: -10.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4200 Plateau Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,832 (-0%)	4mo	$320,990	$175	85
4117 Plateau Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,832 (-0%)	4mo	$329,540	$180	85
4174 Plateau Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,935 (+5%)	4mo	$340,490	$176	82
4180 Plateau Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0	2,035 (+11%)	3mo	$350,490	$172	72
4168 Plateau Dr	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,014 (+10%)	4mo	$362,750	$180	71
4194 Plateau Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0	2,014 (+10%)	4mo	$359,490	$178	71
4014 Poplar Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0	2,006 (+9%)	1mo	$299,900	$150	70
4172 Plateau Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0	2,065 (+12%)	4mo	$362,490	$176	70
4111 Beamer Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0	2,038 (+11%)	2mo	$315,000	$155	68
4113 Plateau Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0	2,065 (+12%)	3mo	$354,540	$172	64
2465 Willard Way	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,627 (-11%)	5mo	$289,990	$178	51
2700 Tanner St	0.72mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,065 (+12%)	4mo	$274,990	$133	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-77,056
• Equity at exit: $47,698

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-110,936
• Equity at exit: $27,659

Cash invested: $89,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,895 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$751 /mo · $9,010/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$608
• Net cashflow: $-329

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,312

Max offer price $261,711

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-148	-5% $-239	+0% $-329	+5% $-420	+10% $-510
Rent	-10% $-558	-5% $-444	+0% $-329	+5% $-215	+10% $-101
Rate	-1.0pp $-168	-0.5pp $-248	base $-329	+0.5pp $-412	+1.0pp $-497

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,975
• Closing costs: $9,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4306 Paxton Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1837	$2,600	$1.42	45d	1	0.06mi
4170 Plateau Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$3,573	$1.70	45d	1	0.11mi
4178 Plateau Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1832	$3,573	$1.95	46d	1	0.13mi
4162 Rim Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1916	$2,500	$1.30	45d	1	0.16mi
4198 Plateau Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1832	$3,573	$1.95	45d	1	0.20mi
4186 Rim Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2060	$2,750	$1.33	45d	1	0.20mi
4005 Waterford Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1852	$2,350	$1.27	45d	1	0.27mi
2140 Florence Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2032	$2,600	$1.28	45d	1	0.52mi
2302 Doe Branch Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2457	$2,750	$1.12	24d	1	0.56mi
2503 Blue Oasis Ct Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2127	$2,499	$1.17	9d	1	0.61mi
2850 Dusty Rd Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2115	$2,450	$1.16	21d	1	0.65mi
1450 Arabella Ave Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1636	$2,250	$1.38	14d	1	0.67mi
2320 Willard Way Forney, TX	5.0	4.0	2408	$3,950	$1.64	45d	1	0.71mi
1308 Middlebrooks Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2231	$2,650	$1.19	46d	1	0.81mi
107 Huckleberry Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2186	$2,900	$1.33	45d	1	0.96mi
3137 Grimaldo Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1585	$2,195	$1.38	26d	1	1.22mi
3137 Grimaldo Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,995	$1.27	14d	1	1.22mi
3204 Stanley St Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2425	$2,400	$0.99	26d	1	1.22mi
3001 Glazner Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$2,350	$1.56	45d	1	1.25mi
3012 Glazner Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1984	$2,195	$1.11	5d	1	1.30mi
2035 Karsen Ln Heartland, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$2,125	$1.34	0d	1	1.31mi
3324 Perman Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1724	$2,125	$1.23	14d	1	1.37mi
3328 Perman Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2301	$2,400	$1.04	45d	1	1.38mi
2038 Allyson Dr Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1496	$1,900	$1.27	45d	1	1.39mi
413 Driftwood Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1733	$1,999	$1.15	12d	1	1.40mi
413 Driftwood Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1733	$2,000	$1.15	17d	1	1.40mi
731 Lauren Grove Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1832	$2,500	$1.36	0d	1	1.42mi
2040 Shawnee Trl Heartland, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,000	$1.09	17d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $319,900 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,900 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,900 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,900 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,900 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,900 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,900 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,900 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $319,900 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $319,900 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $320,000 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $320,000 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $320,000 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $320,000 Active 63 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $320,000 Active 62 DOM
17. 2026-03-27
    listed $320,000 Active 891-char remark

    Show marketing remark (891 chars)

    Welcome home to this stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence in a highly sought-after neighborhood in Forney. Perfectly blending small-town charm with modern comfort, this home offers an inviting open-concept layout designed for both everyday living and entertaining. The interior has been freshly painted, creating a bright and welcoming atmosphere throughout. The spacious kitchen features gas appliances and seamlessly flows into the living and dining areas, making it the heart of the home. Step outside to a large backyard with plenty of room to relax, play, or create your own outdoor oasis. Whether you’re hosting gatherings or enjoying a quiet evening at home, this property offers the space and versatility to fit your lifestyle. Don’t miss your opportunity to own a beautiful home in a growing community with convenient access to shopping, dining, and major highways.

18. 2022-06-29
    soldstatus Closed 36-char remark

    Show marketing remark (36 chars)

    Great Open Floor plan on 60 wide lot

19. 2022-03-02
    status Pending 36-char remark

    Show marketing remark (36 chars)

    Great Open Floor plan on 60 wide lot

20. 2022-02-02
    status Pending 36-char remark

    Show marketing remark (36 chars)

    Great Open Floor plan on 60 wide lot

21. 2022-01-28
    price $337,490 36-char remark

    Show marketing remark (36 chars)

    Great Open Floor plan on 60 wide lot

22. 2022-01-26
    listed $335,490 Active 36-char remark

    Show marketing remark (36 chars)

    Great Open Floor plan on 60 wide lot

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,010 · $751/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,010 · $751/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,745
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,919
• − Property taxes: −$9,010
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,780
• − Management: −$2,780
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$9,306
• Taxable loss: −$9,310
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,234
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,718/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in-ready home in Forney offers a good condition with fresh paint and modern amenities, ready for a new owner to enjoy.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior brightness
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and enhances functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior brightness ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and enhances functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 150,788
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $320,000 NTREIS
• 2022-06-29 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-03-02 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-02-02 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-01-28 Price Changed $337,490 NTREIS
• 2022-01-26 Listed $335,490 NTREIS

Property tax history

+42.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,010 · -4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.