2919 Bagwell Ln · San Antonio, TX 78109

$212,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,692 sqft · Townhouse · 7 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story home features a comfortable first-level owner's suite, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet to create a luxurious retreat. A nearby open-concept layout provides simple transitions and multitasking. Three additional bedrooms can be found on the second floor next to a versatile and inviting loft area.

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Walk-in closet
• Versatile loft area

Tags

• FIRST-LEVEL OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• VERSATILE LOFT AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $213,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home; Active listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,692

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Tilley plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $213k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-8/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (0.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1152 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,245 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-39,987
• Equity at exit: $31,759

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-55,852
• Equity at exit: $18,416

Cash invested: $59,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78109

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 1152
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,862 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,117
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$266 /mo · $3,195/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $-1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,863

Max offer price $212,905

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,250
• Closing costs: $6,390
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11621 Dog Rose Converse, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,495	$1.00	4d	1	0.01mi
11810 Spiderwort RDG Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,497	$0.98	43d	1	0.01mi
5625 Rowan RDG Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1605	$1,700	$1.06	4d	1	0.01mi
11710 California Rose Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	1867	$1,635	$0.88	21d	1	0.01mi
9411 Braman Pt Converse, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$1,950	$1.15	17d	1	0.28mi
5147 Longhorn Riv Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	2096	$2,000	$0.95	24d	1	0.54mi
5510 Cibolo Pass Unit 1 Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1253	$1,695	$1.35	24d	1	0.57mi
5423 Devils Gate Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,650	$1.28	11d	1	0.63mi
5435 Devils Gate Unit 1 Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,650	$1.33	14d	1	0.65mi
5435 Devils Gate Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,650	$1.33	2d	1	0.65mi
9114 McCoy Pass Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	1951	$2,199	$1.13	4d	1	0.66mi
9223 Grand Western Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1908	$1,950	$1.02	4d	1	0.68mi
5506 Rio Cyn Unit 2 Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1351	$1,549	$1.15	43d	1	0.69mi
5114 Y Bar Smt Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,525	$1.20	4d	1	0.74mi
4807 Marylebone Ave Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	2032	$2,200	$1.08	43d	1	0.74mi
4326 Stanley Park Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,650	$1.11	2d	1	0.74mi
9204 Canyon Bnd Unit 2 Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1372	$1,495	$1.09	43d	1	0.76mi
9213 Groff Lndg Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,600	$1.19	11d	1	0.78mi
8911 Sumners Wise Converse, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,745	$1.07	2d	1	0.79mi
9211 Griffith Run Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,446	$1.14	4d	1	0.79mi
8830 McCoy Pass Converse, TX	4.0	2.0	1950	$2,020	$1.04	12d	1	0.80mi
8907 Ladbroke Grv Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1921	$1,900	$0.99	2d	1	0.81mi
9115 Griffith Run Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,521	$1.20	43d	1	0.84mi
8810 Barrow Path Converse, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,695	$1.02	20d	1	0.84mi
8803 Barrow Path Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,570	$1.09	24d	1	0.86mi
3035 Selhurst St Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1557	$1,800	$1.16	24d	1	0.88mi
5223 Hornbeck Hts Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,795	$1.25	43d	1	0.88mi
5107 Hornbeck Hts Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,496	$1.18	4d	1	0.89mi
9026 Bowring Park Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1721	$1,795	$1.04	43d	1	0.90mi
5170 Fowler Crst Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,695	$1.17	4d	1	0.91mi
5135 Fowler Crst Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,950	$1.54	4d	1	0.94mi
8907 Arundal Gdn Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1921	$1,895	$0.99	17d	1	0.94mi
10310 Waverunner Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,695	$1.15	3d	1	0.95mi
8902 Grand Western Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1570	$1,995	$1.27	43d	1	0.98mi
10410 Waverunner Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,750	$1.20	24d	1	0.99mi
9110 Longhorn Park Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1646	$1,675	$1.02	12d	1	1.01mi
9110 Longhorn Park Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1646	$1,675	$1.02	16d	1	1.01mi
9335 Nubuck Br Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	2243	$2,095	$0.93	43d	1	1.06mi
9310 Nubuck Br Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,895	$1.24	4d	1	1.07mi
6426 Thorpe Holw Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1414	$1,600	$1.13	24d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $212,999 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $212,999 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $212,999 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   pricedays on market $212,999 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   remarks 331-char remark
6. 2026-05-31
   listed $213,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,349
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,931
• − Property taxes: −$3,195
• − Insurance: −$1,065
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,788
• − Management: −$1,788
• − Depreciation: −$6,196
• Taxable loss: −$3,614
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$867
• After-tax cash flow: $860/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home is in good condition with a modern and inviting interior. It has a good foundation and structure, and the exterior is well-maintained. The kitchen and bathrooms could benefit from some updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Updating flooring in bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve both resale and rental value
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — New appliances can attract more buyers and renters
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Updating flooring in bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — New appliances can attract more buyers and renters ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817850
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,941
• Composite: 18.67/100
• National rank: #8887
• State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 63,067
• Household income: $91,320
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1732.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 27% Two or more races 21% Black 21% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.02%
• Current HPI: 236.4923
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.08%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B