2049 Gravel Lick Rd · Dante, VA 24224

$92,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,068 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 325 Days on market

Built 1965 0.34 ac lot $86/sqft · 58% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEWLY INSTALLED SEPTIC. Looking for a spacious home? This home has so much potential with some TLC. Home has covered porches, paved driveway, room for a garden and large basement with room for extra storage. Heat pump installed in 2023. Home is conveniently located to Castlewood and Saint Paul. Don't miss out on this one call your favorite agent to schedule your showing today. Home is being sold as. Buyer's and buyer's agent to verify all information in this listing. Subject to E & O.

Key facts

• Covered porches
• Heat pump installed
• Paved driveway

Tags

• COVERED PORCHES
• PAVED DRIVEWAY
• ROOM FOR A GARDEN
• LARGE BASEMENT
• HEAT PUMP INSTALLED
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $92k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($956 rent vs $92k).
• Recommended offer: $81k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#570 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Russell County Public School District (rural): math 58% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #44 of 131 in VA (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Castlewood Elementary (math 51% / reading 62%, grade C+, #630 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 237 students, 92% FRL); Lebanon Middle (math 54% / reading 70%, grade B+, #143 of 342 statewide, top 43%, 291 students, 91% FRL); Castlewood High (math 57% / reading 77%, grade B, #185 of 319 statewide, top 61%, 314 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 49% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 35 units permitted in Russell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $636 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Russell County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 325 days — a 12% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $80,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 325 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.20%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,558
• List price: $92,000
• Delta: -65.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1683 Gravel Lick Rd	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (-3%)	9mo	$86,000	$83	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.11% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-2,402
• Equity at exit: $17,398

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $12,625
• Equity at exit: $14,424

Cash invested: $25,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24224

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $956 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$482
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $439/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $776

Max offer price $92,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $194	-5% $168	+0% $142	+5% $116	+10% $90
Rent	-10% $67	-5% $104	+0% $142	+5% $180	+10% $218
Rate	-1.0pp $188	-0.5pp $165	base $142	+0.5pp $118	+1.0pp $94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,000
• Closing costs: $2,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $92,000 Active 325 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $92,000 Active 323 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $92,000 Active 322 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $92,000 Active 321 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $92,000 Active 320 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $92,000 Active 319 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $92,000 Active 317 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $92,000 Active 316 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $92,000 Active 314 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $92,000 Active 313 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    price $92,000 Active 312 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $100,000 Active 312 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 311 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 306 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 305 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 304 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $100,000 Active 303 DOM
18. 2026-05-17
    price $100,000 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    NEWLY INSTALLED SEPTIC. Looking for a spacious home? This home has so much potential with some TLC. Home has covered porches, paved driveway, room for a garden and large basement with room for extra storage. Heat pump installed in 2023. Home is conveniently located to Castlewood and Saint Paul. Don't miss out on this one call your favorite agent to schedule your showing today. Home is being sold as. Buyer's and buyer's agent to verify all information in this listing. Subject to E & O.

19. 2025-09-16
    price $85,000 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    NEWLY INSTALLED SEPTIC. Looking for a spacious home? This home has so much potential with some TLC. Home has covered porches, paved driveway, room for a garden and large basement with room for extra storage. Heat pump installed in 2023. Home is conveniently located to Castlewood and Saint Paul. Don't miss out on this one call your favorite agent to schedule your showing today. Home is being sold as. Buyer's and buyer's agent to verify all information in this listing. Subject to E & O.

20. 2025-08-01
    listed $100,000 Active 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    NEWLY INSTALLED SEPTIC. Looking for a spacious home? This home has so much potential with some TLC. Home has covered porches, paved driveway, room for a garden and large basement with room for extra storage. Heat pump installed in 2023. Home is conveniently located to Castlewood and Saint Paul. Don't miss out on this one call your favorite agent to schedule your showing today. Home is being sold as. Buyer's and buyer's agent to verify all information in this listing. Subject to E & O.

21. 2008-02-04
    listed $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $439 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $754 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: +$315/yr (+$26/mo · 71.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥96°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,468
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,153
• − Property taxes: −$439
• − Insurance: −$1,126
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$917
• − Management: −$917
• − Depreciation: −$2,676
• Taxable income: $237
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$57
• After-tax cash flow: $1,647/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Russell County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103420
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $34,970
• Composite: 54.14/100
• National rank: #1384
• State rank: #44 of 131 in VA

Livability — Dante

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #570
• US rank: #26831

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,330

Population outlook (Russell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,787 people
• By 2030: 24,485 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 21,750 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 19,214 · -25.5%
• By 2075: 14,500 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 10,629 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Black 2% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Russell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.5) · D 16.1% · R 83.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -54.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -67.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.5 2020: R+63.5 2016: R+58.9 2012: R+37.0 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.11%
• Current HPI: 149.7296
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+42.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $100,000 TVRMLS
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $85,000 TVRMLS
• 2025-08-01 Listed $100,000 TVRMLS
• 2008-02-04 Listed $70,000 SWVAR

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $439 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.