22 Road 3308 · South River, NM 87410

$105,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,334 sqft · Other · 492 Days on market

1.00 ac lot ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This irrigated (per seller) acre has 2 mobile homes on it and so many possibilities. With many mature trees that include a mulberry, apricot and lilac bushes. The newer mobile home is set on a permanent foundation and was built in 1994, it offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a comfy sunroom and a wood burning earth stove for those chilly evenings. There is a one car carport and a 2-car garage on the property. The 1972 Detroiter has not been lived in since approximately 2000 and has been used as storage but with some work, could be livable again. Buyer to verify if the older MH could be used as a residence as it is on a shared septic with the other MH. Buyer to verify the possibility and price of natural gas to the property. There is a well and insulated well house. This could make a great investment property as well. Sellers Broker is related to Seller.

Key facts

• Irrigated acre
• Lilac bushes
• Permanent foundation

Tags

• IRRIGATED ACRE
• MATURE TREES
• MULBERRY TREE
• APRICOT TREE
• LILAC BUSHES
• PERMANENT FOUNDATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $694 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Aztec Municipal Schools (town): math 18% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #12 of 29 in NM (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mccoy Avenue Elementary (math 24% / reading 84%, grade C, #15 of 68 statewide, top 21%, 396 students, 100% FRL); C.V. Koogler Middle (math 10% / reading 54%, grade F, #11 of 27 statewide, top 38%, 533 students, 100% FRL); Aztec High (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #74 of 110 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 48% district-wide (52 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 157 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in San Juan County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Juan County population projected at -51% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 492 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $92,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 492 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.33%
• DSCR: 2.26
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $27,150
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.73×
• Total profit: $80,392
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87410

• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,657 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $249/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $694

Break-even live

Break-even rent $779

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $754	-5% $724	+0% $694	+5% $664	+10% $635
Rent	-10% $563	-5% $629	+0% $694	+5% $760	+10% $825
Rate	-1.0pp $747	-0.5pp $721	base $694	+0.5pp $667	+1.0pp $639

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $105,000 Pending 492 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 492 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $105,000 Active 490 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   status $105,000 Active 489 DOM
5. 2026-05-20
   status Pending 861-char remark

   Show marketing remark (861 chars)

   This irrigated (per seller) acre has 2 mobile homes on it and so many possibilities. With many mature trees that include a mulberry, apricot and lilac bushes. The newer mobile home is set on a permanent foundation and was built in 1994, it offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a comfy sunroom and a wood burning earth stove for those chilly evenings. There is a one car carport and a 2-car garage on the property. The 1972 Detroiter has not been lived in since approximately 2000 and has been used as storage but with some work, could be livable again. Buyer to verify if the older MH could be used as a residence as it is on a shared septic with the other MH. Buyer to verify the possibility and price of natural gas to the property. There is a well and insulated well house. This could make a great investment property as well. Sellers Broker is related to Seller.

6. 2026-04-10
   price $105,000 861-char remark

   Show marketing remark (861 chars)

   This irrigated (per seller) acre has 2 mobile homes on it and so many possibilities. With many mature trees that include a mulberry, apricot and lilac bushes. The newer mobile home is set on a permanent foundation and was built in 1994, it offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a comfy sunroom and a wood burning earth stove for those chilly evenings. There is a one car carport and a 2-car garage on the property. The 1972 Detroiter has not been lived in since approximately 2000 and has been used as storage but with some work, could be livable again. Buyer to verify if the older MH could be used as a residence as it is on a shared septic with the other MH. Buyer to verify the possibility and price of natural gas to the property. There is a well and insulated well house. This could make a great investment property as well. Sellers Broker is related to Seller.

7. 2025-07-17
   status Active 861-char remark

   Show marketing remark (861 chars)

   This irrigated (per seller) acre has 2 mobile homes on it and so many possibilities. With many mature trees that include a mulberry, apricot and lilac bushes. The newer mobile home is set on a permanent foundation and was built in 1994, it offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a comfy sunroom and a wood burning earth stove for those chilly evenings. There is a one car carport and a 2-car garage on the property. The 1972 Detroiter has not been lived in since approximately 2000 and has been used as storage but with some work, could be livable again. Buyer to verify if the older MH could be used as a residence as it is on a shared septic with the other MH. Buyer to verify the possibility and price of natural gas to the property. There is a well and insulated well house. This could make a great investment property as well. Sellers Broker is related to Seller.

8. 2025-07-17
   historical 861-char remark

   Show marketing remark (861 chars)

   This irrigated (per seller) acre has 2 mobile homes on it and so many possibilities. With many mature trees that include a mulberry, apricot and lilac bushes. The newer mobile home is set on a permanent foundation and was built in 1994, it offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a comfy sunroom and a wood burning earth stove for those chilly evenings. There is a one car carport and a 2-car garage on the property. The 1972 Detroiter has not been lived in since approximately 2000 and has been used as storage but with some work, could be livable again. Buyer to verify if the older MH could be used as a residence as it is on a shared septic with the other MH. Buyer to verify the possibility and price of natural gas to the property. There is a well and insulated well house. This could make a great investment property as well. Sellers Broker is related to Seller.

9. 2025-01-16
   listed $130,000 Active 861-char remark

   Show marketing remark (861 chars)

   This irrigated (per seller) acre has 2 mobile homes on it and so many possibilities. With many mature trees that include a mulberry, apricot and lilac bushes. The newer mobile home is set on a permanent foundation and was built in 1994, it offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a comfy sunroom and a wood burning earth stove for those chilly evenings. There is a one car carport and a 2-car garage on the property. The 1972 Detroiter has not been lived in since approximately 2000 and has been used as storage but with some work, could be livable again. Buyer to verify if the older MH could be used as a residence as it is on a shared septic with the other MH. Buyer to verify the possibility and price of natural gas to the property. There is a well and insulated well house. This could make a great investment property as well. Sellers Broker is related to Seller.

10. 2024-11-25
    historical
11. 2024-08-27
    price $130,000
12. 2024-08-27
    price $130,000
13. 2024-07-29
    listed $140,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $249 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $840 · $70/mo
• Expected delta: +$591/yr (+$49/mo · 237.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,887
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$249
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,591
• − Management: −$1,591
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $6,995
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,679
• After-tax cash flow: $6,650/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aztec Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500150
• Math proficiency: 18% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 33.00%
• Median HH income: $50,522
• Composite: 33.95/100
• National rank: #5328
• State rank: #12 of 29 in NM

Livability — South River

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: South River, NM
• Population (ZIP): 14,372

Population outlook (San Juan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,201 people
• By 2030: 84,154 · -11.6%
• By 2040: 63,810 · -33.0%
• By 2050: 46,929 · -50.7%
• By 2075: 21,097 · -77.8%
• By 2100: 9,410 · -90.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 20% Native American 12% Two or more races 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · San Juan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.7) · D 33.0% · R 64.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -21.2pp · 2024: -31.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.7 2020: R+28.3 2016: R+33.1 2012: R+28.5 2008: R+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -113.31%
• Current HPI: 156.6284
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — SJCMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $105,000 SJCMLS
• 2025-07-17 Relisted — SJCMLS
• 2025-07-17 Delisted — SJCMLS
• 2025-01-16 Listed $130,000 SJCMLS
• 2024-11-25 Listing Removed — cren
• 2024-08-27 Price Changed $130,000 cren
• 2024-08-27 Price Changed $130,000 SJCMLS
• 2024-07-29 Listed $140,000 cren

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $249 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.