81 Rocky Point Yaphank Rd #144 · Rocky Point, NY 11778

$124,950

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Condo · 38 Days on market

Built 1970 Average condition $156/sqft · 38% below area Est $200k · 38% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This Co-op Style Home Features 1 Bedrooms, Full Bath, Kitchen & Dining Area. The information provided is estimated to the best of our abilities at this time.

Key facts

• Built 1970
• Listed 38 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot available
• Utilities: Sewer: Other; Utilities: See remarks
• Home design: Stock cooperative
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Brick exterior; Not waterfront

Interior

• Bedrooms: Includes a first-floor bedroom
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating: Other; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Entry level is 1; Pets allowed (call for details)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $125k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $953 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.5% vs local median 2.6% in Rocky Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#717 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Rocky Point Union Free School District (suburban): math 67% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #152 of 590 in NY (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Frank J Carasiti Elementary School (519 students, 32% FRL); Rocky Point Middle School (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B, #161 of 729 statewide, top 24%, 638 students, 36% FRL); Rocky Point High School (math 93% / reading 70%, grade A, #484 of 1,100 statewide, top 44%, 923 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: 128 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,201 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.70%
• DSCR: 2.46
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,000
• List price: $124,950
• Delta: -37.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $40,516
• Equity at exit: $18,630

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.25×
• Total profit: $113,620
• Equity at exit: $10,803

Cash invested: $34,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11778

• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,874/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $953

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $124,950

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,040	-5% $997	+0% $953	+5% $910	+10% $867
Rent	-10% $772	-5% $863	+0% $953	+5% $1,044	+10% $1,135
Rate	-1.0pp $1,016	-0.5pp $985	base $953	+0.5pp $921	+1.0pp $888

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,238
• Closing costs: $3,748
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
124 Prince Rd Rocky Point, NY	1.0	1.0	650	$2,300	$3.54	44d	1	1.13mi
25 Polk St Rocky Point, NY	1.0	1.0	650	$2,300	$3.54	44d	1	1.13mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $124,950 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,950 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,950 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,950 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,950 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,950 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $124,950 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    listed $139,900 Active 162-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,999
• − Property taxes: −$1,874
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,208
• − Management: −$2,208
• − Depreciation: −$3,635
• Taxable income: $10,051
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,412
• After-tax cash flow: $9,030/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This Co-op Style Townhouse is in average condition with good exterior and interior walls. It requires minor maintenance such as painting and HVAC cleaning to improve its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the overall appearance and value of the home.
• Both Clean and maintain HVAC system — A clean and well-maintained HVAC system can improve air quality and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the overall appearance and value of the home. ↑
• Both Clean and maintain HVAC system — A clean and well-maintained HVAC system can improve air quality and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rocky Point Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3624840
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $86,256
• Composite: 59.12/100
• National rank: #953
• State rank: #152 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rocky Point

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #717
• US rank: #13616

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rocky Point, NY
• City population: 12,919
• Population (ZIP): 12,919

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Scotch-Irish 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -234.24%
• Current HPI: 340.4944
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-10.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $124,950 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Listed $139,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid