11410 N Saginaw St · Mount Morris, MI 48458

$78,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 819 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1920 7,405 sqft lot Est $114k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Built 1920

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Ground-level entry; Aluminum siding
• Construction: Aluminum siding construction
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Shed(s); Sidewalks in the community

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central cooling
• Interior features: Free-standing refrigerator; Unfinished basement; Basement present

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $284 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($994 rent vs $78k).
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 5.5% in Mount Morris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#357 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mt. Morris Consolidated Schools (suburban): math 7% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #511 of 540 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $78,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.61%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $113,841
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
499 Helen St	0.33mi	2/1.0	800 (-2%)	8mo	$105,000	$131	71
11614 Temperance St	0.34mi	2/1.0	800 (-2%)	8mo	$57,000	$71	70
619 Monroe Ave	0.45mi	2/1.0	792 (-3%)	1mo	$118,000	$149	69
605 Spruce St	0.18mi	1/1.0 (-1)	780 (-5%)	8mo	$105,000	$135	68
556 Walnut St	0.21mi	2/1.0	756 (-8%)	6mo	$100,000	$132	68
11343 Church St	0.12mi	3/1.0 (+1)	928 (+13%)	11mo	$130,000	$140	54
369 Elm St	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+6%)	12mo	$152,000	$176	52
422 Elm St	0.33mi	2/1.0	908 (+11%)	15mo	$126,000	$139	50
12323 Oakland Ave	0.71mi	2/1.0	750 (-8%)	11mo	$100,000	$133	39
8021 Benson Rd	0.62mi	2/1.0	920 (+12%)	10mo	$98,500	$107	38
1298 Garfield Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (+11%)	9mo	$150,000	$164	31
1297 Garfield Ave	0.75mi	3/1.0 (+1)	925 (+13%)	10mo	$129,900	$140	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $5,445
• Equity at exit: $11,630

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $28,006
• Equity at exit: $6,744

Cash invested: $21,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48458

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $994 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $716/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $634

Max offer price $78,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,500
• Closing costs: $2,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
750 Jefferson St Mt Morris, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	828	$1,020	$1.23	13d	4	0.57mi
7028 Rosewood Dr Mt Morris, MI	2.0	1.0	967	$1,020	$1.05	13d	1	0.93mi
1 Sunny Ln Mount Morris, MI	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	44d	1	1.40mi
9070 N Saginaw Rd Apt 223 Mt Morris, MI	1.0	1.0	588	$845	$1.44	44d	1	1.43mi
9070 N Saginaw Rd Apt 128 Mt Morris, MI	1.0	1.0	588	$845	$1.44	13d	1	1.43mi
9070 N Saginaw Rd Apt 201 Mt Morris, MI	2.0	1.0	700	$940	$1.34	13d	1	1.43mi
9070 N Saginaw Rd Mt Morris, MI	1.0	1.0	588	$820	$1.39	44d	1	1.44mi
6230 Natchez Dr Mount Morris, MI	3.0	1.0	1060	$1,000	$0.94	13d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-06-18
   listed $78,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $716 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $959 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$242/yr (+$20/mo · 33.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,929
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,369
• − Property taxes: −$716
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$954
• − Management: −$954
• − Depreciation: −$2,269
• Taxable income: $2,276
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$546
• After-tax cash flow: $2,863/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mt. Morris Consolidated Schools
• NCES district ID: 2624720
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $35,006
• Composite: 10.63/100
• National rank: #9774
• State rank: #511 of 540 in MI

Livability — Mount Morris

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #357
• US rank: #9095

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Morris, MI
• County: Genesee County · 221,329 people
• City population: 19,519
• Metro: Flint, MI
• Population (ZIP): 19,519
• Household income: $46,797
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 724.0

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 22% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.45%
• Current HPI: 244.2061
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Flint, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $78,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-18 Listed $78,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $716 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.