178 Brown Rd · Utica, NY 13502

$205,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,204 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1970 0.50 ac lot Est $188k · 9% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• ARV discount +3.4/15.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this three-bedroom, one-bath ranch located in the West Canada Valley School District. Set in a peaceful rural setting, this home offers a wonderful opportunity to add your personal style and finishing touches. The updated bathroom provides a fresh feel, while the functional single-level layout offers comfortable everyday living. Enjoy two fireplaces- one fireplace in the living room and one fireplace in the partially finished walk out basement. Whether you’re looking for your first home, a downsizing option, or an investment opportunity, this property is ready for its next chapter. Enjoy country surroundings with the convenience of nearby amenities and make this home your o

Key facts

• Country surroundings
• Nearby amenities
• Single-level layout

Tags

• UPDATED BATHROOM
• SINGLE-LEVEL LAYOUT
• TWO FIREPLACES
• COUNTRY SURROUNDINGS
• NEARBY AMENITIES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1-car)
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Well water; Septic tank; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Existing single-family frame construction; Asphalt roof; Block foundation
• Construction: Frame construction; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Existing property condition
• Exterior features: Deck; Blacktop driveway; Irregular, rural lot; Lot dimensions approximately 110 x 200

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Linoleum; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Bedroom on main level; Full, partially finished basement; Two fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-257/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 7.7% in Utica — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#104 in NY, #1,589 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
• West Canada Valley Central School District (rural): math 54% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #296 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $169,834 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.45%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $187,824
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
132 Brown Rd	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,378 (+14%)	21mo	$215,000	$156	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-34,590
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-31,906
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13502

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,698 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,432/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,725

Max offer price $201,218

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $205,000 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   remarks 693-char remark
5. 2026-06-07
   listed $205,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,432 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,948 · $246/mo
• Expected delta: +$516/yr (+$43/mo · 21.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 5 d/yr ≥95°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,380
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$2,432
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,630
• − Management: −$1,630
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$3,784
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$908
• After-tax cash flow: $651/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Canada Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630600
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $54,416
• Composite: 47.76/100
• National rank: #2232
• State rank: #296 of 590 in NY

Livability — Utica

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #104
• US rank: #1589

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Oneida County · 89,710 people
• City population: 72,968
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• Population (ZIP): 34,037
• Household income: $57,835
• Rent vs Own: 40.8% rent · 59.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1604.0

Population outlook (Herkimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,340 people
• By 2030: 56,838 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 51,098 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 45,080 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 32,648 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 22,266 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 3% American 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Philippines, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Herkimer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.8% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.3pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.76%
• Current HPI: 368.3955
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $205,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+14.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,432 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.