265 Arshamomaque Ave · Southold, NY 11971

$500,000

None bd · None ba · — sqft · Land · 67 Days on market

0.60 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Building Lot in Beixedon Estates private community. Private road, deeded access to private community beach. Broker/Owner.

Key facts

• 0.6 acre lot
• Listed 67 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Beixidon; Annual association fee of $400 covering common area maintenance and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Has a garage with 1 garage space; No carport
• Utilities: Electricity connected (PSEG); Cesspool sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; New construction; Two-story
• Construction: Built with frame construction and HardiPlank siding; Foam insulation; Energy Star construction elements
• Exterior features: Private in-ground pool; Partial fencing; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Wine refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Tile floors
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Ducted heating
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom and full bath; Covered patio/porch; Double-pane, ENERGY STAR qualified windows with screens; Storage attic; Two levels; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Basement provides utility/storage space

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a land listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($36k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $500k).
• Recommended offer: $470k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 6.9% in Southold — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Southold Union Free School District (town): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #298 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Southold Elementary School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 317 students, 35% FRL); Southold Junior-Senior High School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 380 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 17% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 89% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $140k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($470k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $1.59M (76%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $470,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.36%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1135 Boisseau Ave	0.73mi	—/—	—	2mo	$350,000	—	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $107,204
• Equity at exit: $74,552

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $335,143
• Equity at exit: $43,231

Cash invested: $140,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11971

• Home prices YoY: -15.8%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,457 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,229/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,566
• Net cashflow: $2,959

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,712

Max offer price $500,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $125,000
• Closing costs: $15,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
425 Old Shipyard Ln Southold, NY	3.0	1.5	1578	$10,000	$6.34	43d	1	0.53mi
310 Old Shipyard Ln Southold, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$4,000	$3.64	43d	1	0.56mi
145 Founders Path Southold, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$5,000	$4.17	43d	1	0.58mi
275 Maier Pl Southold, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$10,000	$5.00	43d	1	0.63mi
2845 Hobart Rd Southold, NY	3.0	2.0	1300	$22,000	$16.92	43d	1	0.70mi
1235 Youngs Ave Southold, NY	2.0	1.5	1462	$4,000	$2.74	43d	1	0.92mi
1975 Youngs Ave Southold, NY	3.0	2.0	—	$4,000	—	43d	1	0.94mi
465 Tarpon Dr Southold, NY	3.0	2.5	1572	$20,000	$12.72	24d	1	1.22mi
1854 N Bayview Rd Southold, NY	2.0	2.5	1750	$15,000	$8.57	43d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   price $1,795,000
3. 2025-11-13
   price $1,949,000
4. 2025-09-17
   price $1,995,000
5. 2025-08-29
   listed $2,095,000 Active
6. 2025-08-28
   historical $2,095,000
7. 2025-03-22
   historical
8. 2024-09-25
   listed $595,000 Active
9. 2024-04-17
   soldstatus $460,000
10. 2024-02-02
    status Pending 121-char remark

    Show marketing remark (121 chars)

    Building Lot in Beixedon Estates private community. Private road, deeded access to private community beach. Broker/Owner.

11. 2024-02-01
    status Active 121-char remark

    Show marketing remark (121 chars)

    Building Lot in Beixedon Estates private community. Private road, deeded access to private community beach. Broker/Owner.

12. 2023-11-18
    listed $500,000 Active 121-char remark

    Show marketing remark (121 chars)

    Building Lot in Beixedon Estates private community. Private road, deeded access to private community beach. Broker/Owner.

13. 2014-06-12
    historical
14. 2013-06-12
    listed $185,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,229 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,839 · $403/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,611/yr (+$301/mo · 293.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $89,489
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,008
• − Property taxes: −$1,229
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,159
• − Management: −$7,159
• − Depreciation: −$14,545
• Taxable income: $28,889
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,933
• After-tax cash flow: $28,570/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southold Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627620
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $78,622
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2269
• State rank: #298 of 590 in NY

Livability — Southold

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #10545

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southold, NY
• City population: 6,507
• Population (ZIP): 6,507

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 11% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.14%
• Current HPI: 396.5481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+870.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $1,795,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $1,949,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $1,995,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-29 Listed $2,095,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-28 Coming Soon $2,095,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-22 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-25 Listed $595,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $460,000 Public Records
• 2024-02-02 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-01 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-18 Listed $500,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-12 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-06-12 Listed $185,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,229 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.