418 Raspberry St · Erie, PA 16507

$85,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1918 5,445 sqft lot Est $113k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

West Side Duplex – Steps from the Bayfront! Looking for a smart investment? This 2-unit property on Erie’s west side is a true money maker! Each unit offers 2 comfortable bedrooms, spacious living areas, and great rental potential. Live in one and rent the other, or lease both for steady cash flow. Just minutes from the Bayfront, downtown, parks, and more. Whether you’re a first-time investor or growing your portfolio, this place is loaded with potential. Great location, solid structure, and a price that makes sense—this one won’t last long!

Key facts

• Bayfront
• West side duplex
• 5,445 sq ft lot

Tags

• WEST SIDE DUPLEX
• BAYFRONT
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive. Per door: $530/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Cap rate 21.3% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 39 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,225/mo this rent would consume 80% of the median local household income ($33k/yr) (locally 776% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1918 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $85,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1918 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.46%
• DSCR: 3.38
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $112,640
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
902 W 4th St	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,729 (-2%)	1mo	$135,000	$78	78
519 Poplar St	0.46mi	4/3.0	1,896 (+8%)	3mo	$73,500	$39	59
225 Liberty St	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,936 (+10%)	10mo	$175,000	$90	57
320 Plum St	0.29mi	4/2.0	2,016 (+14%)	11mo	$35,000	$17	54
512 W 4th St	0.69mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,760 (0%)	7mo	$90,000	$51	53
1027 Washington Pl	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,920 (+9%)	12mo	$150,000	$78	50
1406 W 8th St	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,872 (+6%)	18mo	$120,000	$64	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.17% appreciation · 0.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.23×
• Total profit: $76,942
• Equity at exit: $43,941

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.96×
• Total profit: $165,634
• Equity at exit: $72,551

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16507

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,225 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$216 /mo · $2,595/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $1,060

Break-even live

Break-even rent $883

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 47%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,224
Total (2 units)			$2,225

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1164 W 7th St Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1248	$1,600	$1.28	43d	1	0.19mi
729 W 9th St Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1782	$3,000	$1.68	43d	1	0.53mi
538 W 8th St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	2000	$1,650	$0.82	43d	1	0.71mi
1837 W 9th St Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1450	$1,600	$1.10	43d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-01-28
   soldstatus $120,000
2. 2025-12-12
   soldstatus $45,277
3. 2025-06-30
   status Pending
4. 2025-06-17
   listed $85,000 Active
5. 2021-11-24
   soldstatus $204,000
6. 1996-04-04
   soldstatus $50,000
7. 1988-02-05
   soldstatus $16,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,595 · $216/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,595 · $216/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$2,595
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,136
• − Management: −$2,136
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $12,174
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,922
• After-tax cash flow: $9,802/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 8,597
• Household income: $33,361
• Rent vs Own: 66.2% rent · 33.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 776.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 24% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.17%
• Current HPI: 163.92
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.10%
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+627.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-28 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2025-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $45,277 Public Records
• 2025-06-30 Pending — GEBOR
• 2025-06-17 Listed $85,000 GEBOR
• 2021-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $204,000 Public Records
• 1996-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1988-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $16,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,595 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.