4618 Mirabella Ct · St. Pete Beach, FL 33706

$435,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,849 sqft · Townhouse public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1996 2,705 sqft lot $431/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy this unique townhome condo just a hop and a skip from a sandy beach and major shopping area. Two bedrooms, two and a half baths, one car garage, sliding glass doors that open to a patio that's ideal for entertaining and to a spectacular garden of lush greenery, just seconds from the pool.

Key facts

• Private fishing dock
• Natural light
• Private patio

Tags

• HEATED WATERFRONT POOL
• PRIVATE FISHING DOCK
• BEAUTIFULLY MAINTAINED GROUNDS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• PRIVATE PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Property listed as fixer
• Financial info: Total annual fees $5,180.88; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $431.74; HOA covers cable TV, pool, insurance, internet, structure and grounds maintenance, sewer, trash and water; Association approval required; Community pool; Cats and dogs allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Townhouse; Residential property; Two stories; Faces east; Entry level: Two-level design
• Construction: Stucco and frame construction; Tile roof; Block foundation; Built as part of MIRABELLA
• Exterior features: Rear porch; In-ground spa; Paved road access; Planned unit development

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Awning(s)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Laundry closet; Upper level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $435k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-163 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $406k (6.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $435k).
• Recommended offer: $406k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 0.9% in St. Pete Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 615 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,403/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($104k/yr) (locally 552% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $406,144 (6.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.59%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,242,528
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4450 Gulf Blvd #205	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,692 (-8%)	2mo	$1,136,400	$672	67
4450 Gulf Blvd #405	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,692 (-8%)	10mo	$1,300,000	$768	61
5353 Gulf Blvd Unit A402	0.52mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,012 (+9%)	11mo	$1,150,000	$572	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-93,338
• Equity at exit: $64,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-142,679
• Equity at exit: $37,611

Cash invested: $121,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33706

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 615
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,403 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,281
• Tax from tax record: −$321 /mo · $3,856/yr
• Insurance: −$181
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$431
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$925
• Net cashflow: $-163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,609

Max offer price $406,144

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $83	-5% $-40	+0% $-163	+5% $-286	+10% $-410
Rent	-10% $-511	-5% $-337	+0% $-163	+5% $11	+10% $184
Rate	-1.0pp $56	-0.5pp $-53	base $-163	+0.5pp $-276	+1.0pp $-391

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,750
• Closing costs: $13,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4616 Mirabella Ct Unit 1 St Pete Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1784	$3,000	$1.68	25d	1	0.02mi
4638 Mirabella Ct Unit 1 St Pete Beach, FL	3.0	4.0	2200	$4,500	$2.05	25d	1	0.03mi
4450 Gulf Blvd #113 St Pete Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1692	$7,950	$4.70	16d	1	0.22mi
4950 Gulf Blvd St Pete Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1442	$4,850	$3.36	12d	5	0.24mi
4950 Gulf Blvd St Pete Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1442	$4,750	$3.29	8d	3	0.24mi
204 44th Ave St Pete Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1876	$5,500	$2.93	5d	1	0.25mi
5000 Gulf Blvd St Pete Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1420	$3,750	$2.64	19d	2	0.28mi
4227 Gulf Blvd Unit 4227 St Pete Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	2160	$3,495	$1.62	25d	1	0.31mi
141 Punta Vista Dr St Pete Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	1653	$7,500	$4.54	13d	1	0.32mi
5301 Gulf Blvd Unit A610 St Pete Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	2480	$5,000	$2.02	19d	1	0.45mi
5301 Gulf Blvd Unit A610 St Pete Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	2480	$5,000	$2.02	25d	1	0.45mi
5353 Gulf Blvd Unit A401 St Pete Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	2383	$5,500	$2.31	19d	1	0.50mi
5353 Gulf Blvd Unit A502 St Pete Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	2012	$6,000	$2.98	25d	1	0.50mi
5353 Gulf Blvd St Pete Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	2383	$4,950	$2.08	25d	1	0.51mi
3820 Gulf Blvd #807 St Pete Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1280	$3,800	$2.97	25d	1	0.52mi
3805 Gulf Blvd St Pete Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	2224	$11,000	$4.95	25d	1	0.55mi
5555 Gulf Blvd #104 St Pete Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$3,000	$2.22	25d	1	0.68mi
3912 Poinsettia Dr St Pete Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1426	$3,250	$2.28	5d	1	0.70mi
5575 Gulf Blvd #124 St Pete Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$2,800	$2.07	25d	1	0.72mi
5575 Gulf Blvd #337 St Pete Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$3,500	$2.59	5d	1	0.72mi
5923 2nd St E St Pete Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1834	$5,500	$3.00	19d	1	0.85mi
3666 Belle Vista Dr E St Pete Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1671	$5,500	$3.29	5d	1	0.89mi
3390 W Maritana Dr #3 St Pete Beach, FL	3.0	4.0	1790	$7,500	$4.19	25d	1	0.95mi
3606 Belle Vista Dr E St Pete Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1457	$6,000	$4.12	5d	1	0.96mi
420 64th Ave #1103 St Pete Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1365	$2,400	$1.76	5d	1	1.05mi
3200 Gulf Blvd #103 St Pete Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1345	$7,000	$5.20	25d	1	1.05mi
6500 Sunset Way #316 St Pete Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	2070	$5,000	$2.42	25d	1	1.06mi
6500 Sunset Way #116 St Pete Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	2240	$4,000	$1.79	19d	1	1.06mi
6407 1st Palm Point St Pete Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1626	$7,500	$4.61	4d	1	1.10mi
3111 W Maritana Dr St Pete Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	2192	$5,495	$2.51	8d	1	1.14mi
3000 Pass a Grille Way St Pete Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1500	$4,500	$3.00	5d	1	1.17mi
6650 Sunset Way St Pete Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1470	$3,900	$2.65	5d	1	1.17mi
6650 Sunset Way #220 St Pete Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1515	$5,000	$3.30	5d	1	1.17mi
6260 Sun Blvd #1 Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	3.0	1650	$3,200	$1.94	5d	1	1.23mi
6901 Gulf Winds Dr St Pete Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	2125	$4,500	$2.12	25d	1	1.32mi
280 72nd Ave St Pete Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$4,500	$3.21	5d	1	1.46mi
333 72nd Ave St Pete Beach, FL	3.0	1.5	1395	$2,500	$1.79	25d	1	1.48mi
7100 Sunset Way #5 St Pete Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	1825	$7,500	$4.11	5d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $431 · $5,172/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $435,000 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $435,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $435,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   remarks 687-char remark
5. 2026-06-10
   listed $435,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,856 · $321/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,856 · $321/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,830
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,367
• − Property taxes: −$3,856
• − Insurance: −$7,294
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,226
• − Management: −$4,226
• − HOA: −$5,172
• − Depreciation: −$12,655
• Taxable loss: −$8,966
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,152
• After-tax cash flow: $192/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — St. Pete Beach

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Pete Beach, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 15,347
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,298
• Household income: $104,359
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 552.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -600.61%
• Current HPI: 305.8311
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.28%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $435,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $400,000 Public Records
• 2006-03-10 Sold (MLS) $400,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-09-28 Listed $425,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,856 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.