4200 W Alabama Ln · San Tan Valley, AZ 85144

$367,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,576 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 2017 5,760 sqft lot $233/sqft · 11% below area Est $412k · 11% under $95/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fully upgraded, this popular DR Horton Sparrow model offers 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, north/ south facing with mountain views. The home features granite countertops, sleek black cabinetry, and matching black appliances. Meticulously maintained and low maintenance, it's perfect for first-time buyers, down sizers, or investors. Located in San Tan Heights with access to a pool, rec center, gym, and parks, just minutes from San Tan Mountain Regional Park for hiking and outdoor adventure.

Key facts

• 5,760 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $367k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-743 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (35.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (46.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (46.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 3.2% in San Tan Valley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#282 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 489 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$63k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($345k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,876 (46.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.68%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 15.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $412,183
• List price: $367,000
• Delta: -10.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4366 W White Canyon Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (-2%)	0mo	$362,000	$236	82
4528 W Crescent Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (-2%)	1mo	$350,000	$228	79
32945 N Ash Tree Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,678 (+6%)	2mo	$385,000	$229	71
3644 W Goldmine Mountain Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,551 (-2%)	2mo	$337,000	$217	70
3823 W Dancer Ln	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,521 (-4%)	2mo	$339,000	$223	68
3728 W Carlos Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,504 (-5%)	0mo	$329,000	$219	66
3830 W Santa Cruz Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,506 (-4%)	2mo	$338,000	$224	64
33025 N Mildred Ln	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,759 (+12%)	2mo	$325,000	$185	64
3458 W South Butte Rd	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (+4%)	2mo	$399,900	$245	63
3202 W Carlos Ln	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,539 (-2%)	1mo	$260,000	$169	63
4589 W Horsenettle Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,754 (+11%)	2mo	$377,500	$215	63
4547 W Foldwing Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,784 (+13%)	2mo	$379,000	$212	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $152,443
• Equity at exit: $330,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.73×
• Total profit: $485,913
• Equity at exit: $713,000

Cash invested: $102,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85144

• Home prices YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 489
• Price-to-rent: 15.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,979 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,925
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,605/yr
• Insurance: −$153
• HOA: −$95
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-743

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,919

Max offer price $235,742

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-535	-5% $-639	+0% $-743	+5% $-847	+10% $-951
Rent	-10% $-899	-5% $-821	+0% $-743	+5% $-665	+10% $-587
Rate	-1.0pp $-558	-0.5pp $-650	base $-743	+0.5pp $-838	+1.0pp $-935

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,750
• Closing costs: $11,010
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3809 W Five Mile Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1343	$1,895	$1.41	7d	1	0.30mi
4151 W Goldmine Mountain Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	5.0	3.0	2248	$2,161	$0.96	0d	1	0.31mi
4590 W Foldwing DR Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.0	1806	$2,449	$1.36	4d	1	0.32mi
3849 W South Butte Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1884	$1,846	$0.98	45d	1	0.34mi
33810 N Mercedes Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1504	$1,925	$1.28	45d	1	0.35mi
3854 W Carlos Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1527	$1,775	$1.16	0d	1	0.38mi
3560 W Mesquite Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,750	$1.20	13d	1	0.40mi
3792 W Santa Cruz Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1852	$1,795	$0.97	45d	1	0.44mi
33948 N Beeblossom Trl San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,850	$1.37	18d	1	0.49mi
33024 N Madison Way Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	17d	1	0.49mi
4504 W Stonecrop Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1810	$2,075	$1.15	7d	1	0.51mi
33889 N Barbara Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1868	$1,975	$1.06	7d	1	0.52mi
3877 W Naomi Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2010	$1,850	$0.92	7d	1	0.53mi
33993 N Danja Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1998	$2,450	$1.23	45d	1	0.64mi
3162 W Sunshine Butte Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,850	$1.16	24d	1	0.64mi
3194 W Yellow Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1925	$1,908	$0.99	45d	1	0.66mi
3569 W Morgan Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,550	$0.91	26d	1	0.67mi
3102 W Belle Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1909	$1,900	$1.00	14d	1	0.78mi
3102 W Belle Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1909	$1,900	$1.00	17d	1	0.78mi
2924 W Allens Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1765	$1,955	$1.11	13d	1	0.78mi
2924 W Allens Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1765	$1,860	$1.05	0d	1	0.78mi
3047 W Dancer Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,915	$1.32	45d	1	0.82mi
2899 W White Canyon Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1981	$1,950	$0.98	4d	1	0.84mi
2993 W Dancer Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,700	$1.32	45d	1	0.85mi
33856 N Cherry Creek Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1928	$1,850	$0.96	45d	1	0.87mi
33897 N Wash View Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1721	$1,980	$1.15	4d	1	0.88mi
2699 W Camp River Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1766	$1,975	$1.12	45d	1	0.94mi
3541 Dreamy Draw Dr Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.5	1918	$2,700	$1.41	26d	1	0.94mi
3439 W Oil Well Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1595	$2,500	$1.57	45d	1	0.98mi
2781 W Mira Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1115	$1,875	$1.68	0d	1	1.06mi
2828 Patagonia Ct Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.5	2230	$2,500	$1.12	45d	1	1.07mi
35032 N Barrel Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.5	2213	$3,900	$1.76	0d	1	1.08mi
2683 W Kristina Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,850	$1.31	45d	1	1.08mi
2460 W Tanner Ranch Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1520	$1,980	$1.30	4d	1	1.09mi
33053 N North Butte Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1520	$1,985	$1.31	5d	1	1.20mi
4165 W Monika Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2049	$2,450	$1.20	45d	1	1.22mi
2574 W Sawtooth Way San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,995	$1.50	45d	1	1.23mi
33082 N Cat Hills Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1704	$1,795	$1.05	20d	1	1.24mi
33082 N Cat Hills Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1703	$1,695	$1.00	7d	1	1.24mi
2306 W Kristina Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1464	$1,650	$1.13	26d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $95 · $1,140/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $367,000 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $367,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $367,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $367,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $367,000 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $367,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $367,000 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $367,000 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $367,000 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $367,000 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $367,000 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $367,000 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $367,000 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $367,000 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $367,000 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-03-24
    listed $367,000 Active 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    Fully upgraded, this popular DR Horton Sparrow model offers 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, north/ south facing with mountain views. The home features granite countertops, sleek black cabinetry, and matching black appliances. Meticulously maintained and low maintenance, it's perfect for first-time buyers, down sizers, or investors. Located in San Tan Heights with access to a pool, rec center, gym, and parks, just minutes from San Tan Mountain Regional Park for hiking and outdoor adventure.

17. 2024-09-14
    historical $1,899
18. 2024-09-08
    price $1,899
19. 2024-09-05
    listed $1,950
20. 2024-08-23
    historical $1,950
21. 2024-08-23
    listed $1,950
22. 2011-06-16
    soldstatus $2,226,000
23. 2005-12-22
    soldstatus $40,000,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,605 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,422 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: +$817/yr (+$68/mo · 50.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,745
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,558
• − Property taxes: −$1,605
• − Insurance: −$1,835
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,900
• − Management: −$1,900
• − HOA: −$1,140
• − Depreciation: −$10,676
• Taxable loss: −$15,868
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,808
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,108/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence Unified School District (4437)
• NCES district ID: 0402920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,426
• Composite: 18.31/100
• National rank: #8950
• State rank: #178 of 249 in AZ

Livability — San Tan Valley

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #24192

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime D+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Tan Valley, AZ

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 24.94%
• Current HPI: 372.52
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-99.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Listed $367,000 ARMLS
• 2024-09-14 Rental Removed $1,899 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-09-08 Price Changed $1,899 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-09-05 Listed for Rent $1,950 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-08-23 Rental Removed $1,950 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-08-23 Listed for Rent $1,950 RENTALBEAST
• 2011-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $2,226,000 Public Records
• 2005-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $40,000,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+29.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,605 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.