131 County Rd 3201 · Cleveland, TX 77327

$160,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,824 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1986 10,197 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Most all new systems through house, shows well, great lot!

Key facts

• Durable metal roof
• Two-story home
• Expansive yard

Tags

• TWO-STORY HOME
• LARGE LOT
• FLEXIBLE LAYOUT
• MULTIPLE LIVING AREAS
• DURABLE METAL ROOF
• EXPANSIVE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $170 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.7% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Southside El (math 17% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,759 of 4,322 statewide, top 88%, 905 students, 95% FRL); Cleveland Middle (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 1,696 students, 98% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,600 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.54%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-13,340
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $9,760
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,694 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$263 /mo · $3,152/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,479

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
909 Jefferson Ave Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,870	$1.17	1d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-05-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
5. 2026-04-01
   listed $160,000 Active
6. 2020-07-14
   soldstatus
7. 2020-05-18
   status Pending
8. 2020-05-06
   status Option Pending
9. 2020-05-06
   historical
10. 2020-04-01
    status Active
11. 2020-03-27
    status Option Pending
12. 2020-03-17
    price $126,500
13. 2020-02-19
    price $129,000
14. 2020-01-13
    listed $132,500 Active
15. 2014-12-08
    soldstatus Sold 58-char remark

    Show marketing remark (58 chars)

    Most all new systems through house, shows well, great lot!

16. 2014-12-03
    soldstatus
17. 2014-09-10
    status Pending 58-char remark

    Show marketing remark (58 chars)

    Most all new systems through house, shows well, great lot!

18. 2014-08-20
    listed $97,500 Active 58-char remark

    Show marketing remark (58 chars)

    Most all new systems through house, shows well, great lot!

19. 2014-07-01
    soldstatus
20. 2003-10-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,152 · $263/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,152 · $263/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,323
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$3,152
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,626
• − Management: −$1,626
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$497
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$119
• After-tax cash flow: $2,154/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+64.1% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2020-07-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-05-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-04-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2020-03-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-03-17 Price Changed $126,500 HARMLS
• 2020-02-19 Price Changed $129,000 HARMLS
• 2020-01-13 Listed $132,500 HARMLS
• 2014-12-08 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-12-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-09-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-08-20 Listed $97,500 HARMLS
• 2014-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-10-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,152 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.