321 Squires Grove Dr · Eagle Lake, FL 33880

$229,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,616 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2007 5,728 sqft lot $51/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home located in the Squires Grove community in Winter Haven — a growing Central Florida market known for its chain of lakes, parks, and convenient access to both Lakeland and Orlando. The home offers 1,616 sq ft with a functional single-story layout featuring a spacious living area, a well-sized kitchen, and a natural flow ideal for everyday living. The split floor plan provides privacy, while the bedrooms offer flexibility for families or guests. Attached garage and comfortable residential setting in an established neighborhood. Roof 2007, AC approximately 10 years old. Solar panels installed and operational (Sunrun lease — transferable to

Key facts

• Well-sized kitchen
• Chain of lakes
• Attached garage

Tags

• SQUIRES GROVE COMMUNITY
• CHAIN OF LAKES
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• WELL-SIZED KITCHEN
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• ATTACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; Total living area reported as 1,616 sq ft (public records); Building area reported as 2,036 sq ft (public records)
• Financial info: Quarterly condo/fee term noted; No lease restrictions specified
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Access Management; Monthly HOA dues of $51.67 (quarterly fee $155); Playground on-site; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; Solar energy generation
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Southwest-facing entry
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on 0.13-acre lot
• Exterior features: Patio; Private mailbox; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Other laundry features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $261 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (3.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#196 in FL, #3,096 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pinewood Elementary School (math 48% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,330 of 2,144 statewide, top 63%, 709 students, 53% FRL); Lake Region High School (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #570 of 667 statewide, top 86%, 1,545 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,212/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($56k/yr) (locally 1412% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $230k implies a 187% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,231 (3.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.87%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-21,822
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,467
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33880

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,212 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,610/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$51
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,882

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $391	-5% $326	+0% $261	+5% $196	+10% $131
Rent	-10% $86	-5% $174	+0% $261	+5% $349	+10% $436
Rate	-1.0pp $377	-0.5pp $320	base $261	+0.5pp $202	+1.0pp $141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2029 Carroll Ln Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	2097	$2,500	$1.19	22d	1	0.34mi
2442 Taloncrest Ct Eagle Lake, FL	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,700	$1.46	25d	1	0.44mi
910 Sun Burst Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,000	$1.18	25d	1	0.45mi
2000 Golden Beak Dr Eagle Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,990	$1.29	15d	1	0.57mi
301 Majestic Gardens Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1951	$2,020	$1.04	20d	1	0.78mi
109 Solis Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1625	$2,086	$1.28	4d	1	0.98mi
2587 Sage Valley Way Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1535	$2,300	$1.50	15d	1	0.99mi
1504 Hummingbird Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.5	1942	$2,599	$1.34	4d	1	1.02mi
1504 Hummingbird Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.5	1942	$2,599	$1.34	25d	1	1.02mi
948 Craftsman Rd Eagle Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,895	$1.22	4d	1	1.29mi
1469 Deepwater Cir Eagle Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,000	$1.37	25d	1	1.33mi
740 Trotters Dr Eagle Lake, FL	4.0	2.0	1973	$2,295	$1.16	25d	1	1.40mi
1727 Foreman Rd Eagle Lake, FL	4.0	2.5	1879	$1,925	$1.02	4d	1	1.41mi
608 Trotters Dr Eagle Lake, FL	4.0	3.0	2140	$2,400	$1.12	25d	1	1.41mi
670 Eagle Landing Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,999	$1.35	4d	1	1.41mi
1033 Holden Way Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,950	$1.25	15d	1	1.41mi
1204 Deepwater Cir Eagle Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,900	$1.32	15d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $51 · $612/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   remarks 687-char remark
7. 2026-06-10
   listed $229,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,610 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,908 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: +$299/yr (+$25/mo · 18.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,548
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$1,610
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,124
• − Management: −$2,124
• − HOA: −$612
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$637
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$153
• After-tax cash flow: $3,287/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Eagle Lake

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #3096

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Eagle Lake, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 4,397
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,371
• Household income: $56,390
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1412.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.41%
• Current HPI: 317.8788
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.47%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+64.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $229,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Listed $229,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-05 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2013-04-11 Listed $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,610 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.