1257 Highway 612 · Las Tusas, NM 87323

$129,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 4,000 sqft · Other · 36 Days on market

Built 1970 0.60 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this fixer fixer upper at Bluewater Lake, NM. Located on a corner lot. 2224 sq ft home needs some TLS. Steel building in the back yard has commercial potential.

Key facts

• 0.6 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1970

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $161 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (4.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (4.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Grants-Cibola County Schools (town): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #74 of 95 in NM (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bluewater Elementary (math 10% / reading 70%, grade F, #34 of 68 statewide, top 54%, 70 students, 100% FRL); Los Alamitos Middle (418 students, 100% FRL); Grants High (843 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 70% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 18% district-wide (+22 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Grants-Cibola County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Cibola County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,557 (4.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.36%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $25,794
• Equity at exit: $58,004

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $77,395
• Equity at exit: $89,391

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87323

• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,236 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,013/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,031

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $234	-5% $198	+0% $161	+5% $125	+10% $88
Rent	-10% $64	-5% $113	+0% $161	+5% $210	+10% $259
Rate	-1.0pp $226	-0.5pp $194	base $161	+0.5pp $128	+1.0pp $94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-03-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-07
   price $129,000
3. 2025-10-22
   price $149,000
4. 2025-07-26
   price $175,000
5. 2025-05-27
   listed $149,000 Active
6. 2024-05-31
   soldstatus Closed 170-char remark

   Show marketing remark (170 chars)

   Check out this fixer fixer upper at Bluewater Lake, NM. Located on a corner lot. 2224 sq ft home needs some TLS. Steel building in the back yard has commercial potential.

7. 2024-05-31
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (170 chars)

   Check out this fixer fixer upper at Bluewater Lake, NM. Located on a corner lot. 2224 sq ft home needs some TLS. Steel building in the back yard has commercial potential.

8. 2024-05-16
   status Pending 170-char remark

   Show marketing remark (170 chars)

   Check out this fixer fixer upper at Bluewater Lake, NM. Located on a corner lot. 2224 sq ft home needs some TLS. Steel building in the back yard has commercial potential.

9. 2024-05-16
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (170 chars)

   Check out this fixer fixer upper at Bluewater Lake, NM. Located on a corner lot. 2224 sq ft home needs some TLS. Steel building in the back yard has commercial potential.

10. 2024-05-13
    listed $60,000 Active 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Check out this fixer fixer upper at Bluewater Lake, NM. Located on a corner lot. 2224 sq ft home needs some TLS. Steel building in the back yard has commercial potential.

11. 2024-05-13
    listed $60,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Check out this fixer fixer upper at Bluewater Lake, NM. Located on a corner lot. 2224 sq ft home needs some TLS. Steel building in the back yard has commercial potential.

12. 2016-04-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,013 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,032 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$19/yr (+$2/mo · 1.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥84°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,827
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,013
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,186
• − Management: −$1,186
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable loss: −$182
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$44
• After-tax cash flow: $1,981/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grants-Cibola County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501170
• Math proficiency: 14% —
• Reading proficiency: 22% —
• Median HH income: $35,996
• Composite: 18.23/100
• National rank: #14064
• State rank: #74 of 95 in NM

Livability — Las Tusas

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Las Tusas, NM
• Population (ZIP): 3,702

Population outlook (Cibola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,324 people
• By 2030: 25,594 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 24,117 · -8.4%
• By 2050: 22,568 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 18,653 · -29.1%
• By 2100: 12,719 · -51.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.95)
• Race & ethnicity: Native American 73% White 21% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Iranian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cibola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.6% · R 48.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: 29.6pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+8.7 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+23.8 2008: D+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+115.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $129,000 Southwest MLS
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $149,000 Southwest MLS
• 2025-07-26 Price Changed $175,000 Southwest MLS
• 2025-05-27 Listed $149,000 Southwest MLS
• 2024-05-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-05-31 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2024-05-16 Pending — NMMLS
• 2024-05-16 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2024-05-13 Listed $60,000 NMMLS
• 2024-05-13 Listed $60,000 Southwest MLS
• 2016-04-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,013 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.