412 N Misty Ln · Bluewater, AZ 85344

$175,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,860 sqft · Manufactured · 22 Days on market

Built 1978 Good condition 3,920 sqft lot ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 412 N Misty Ln -- a clean, comfortable river community home located inside a gated community with guard-monitored access. Perfect as a full-time residence, winter retreat, or second river home, this well-cared-for property offers 1,860 sq ft with 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an oversized primary suite. The ADA-friendly layout includes wider doorways and easy accessibility throughout. The property features covered RV/boat parking, additional covered parking, workshop, Arizona room, extended awnings, fencing, water feature, ceiling fans, and full concrete surrounding the home for easy maintenance. The home sits on a permanent foundation with copper plumbing already in place. One of

Key facts

• Gated community
• Arizona room
• Ada-friendly layout

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• GUARD-MONITORED ACCESS
• ADA-FRIENDLY LAYOUT
• COVERED RV BOAT PARKING
• WORKSHOP
• ARIZONA ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land is leased

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 200+ amp electric service
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide)
• Construction: Vertical siding
• Exterior features: Patio; Back yard fencing; Block and chain-link fencing; Shed(s); Water-smart landscaping; Level lot; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate countertops (kitchen); Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 5
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heat; Heat pump; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Laminate countertops; Breakfast bar; Ceiling fans; Walk-in closet(s); Wet bar
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry with electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $265 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#81 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Parker Unified School District (4510) (town): math 18% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #200 of 249 in AZ (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 92 units permitted in La Paz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• La Paz County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $172,375 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.49%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $401,760
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
358 E Riverfront Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,792 (-4%)	9mo	$387,500	$216	75
435 Bluewater Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,592 (-14%)	18mo	$145,000	$91	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-11,440
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $11,900
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85344

• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,867 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-28
    listed $175,000 Active
18. 2025-10-16
    listed $200,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,398
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,792
• − Management: −$1,792
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $421
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$101
• After-tax cash flow: $3,081/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. A fresh coat of paint and updated fixtures would significantly enhance its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor bathroom fixtures — No visible damage, but may need updating

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics
• Both Update bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures improve functionality and aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · No visible damage, but may need updating	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Update bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Parker Unified School District (4510)
• NCES district ID: 0405980
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $34,354
• Composite: 14.76/100
• National rank: #9392
• State rank: #200 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Bluewater

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #12872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bluewater, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 9,069

Population outlook (La Paz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,409 people
• By 2030: 17,592 · -4.4%
• By 2040: 16,600 · -9.8%
• By 2050: 16,328 · -11.3%
• By 2075: 17,075 · -7.2%
• By 2100: 17,042 · -7.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 34% Native American 23% Two or more races 19% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · La Paz

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.2) · D 27.6% · R 71.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.7pp toward R · 2008: -28.5pp · 2024: -44.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.2 2020: R+38.8 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+32.2 2008: R+28.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.38%
• Current HPI: 198.2271
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $175,000 LHAR
• 2025-10-16 Listed $200,000 LHAR