8700 West Ln #157 · Stockton, CA 95210

$105,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured · 143 Days on market

Built 1976 $109/sqft · 57% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Positioned at 8700 West Ln #157, in Stockton, CA, this property extends a compelling invitation. It stands as a great it is a wonder home, particularly appealing to handy homeowners and those with an eye for potential. Within this residence, two inviting bedrooms provide comfortable spaces for rest and rejuvenation, each offering a private retreat. Complementing these sleeping quarters are two bathrooms, ensuring convenience and practicality for daily routines. The kitchen, a central area for culinary endeavors, features a practical stovetop, ready for preparing delightful meals. A dedicated laundry room offers essential utility, simplifying household tasks. Outside, a welcoming porch provi

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1976
• Listed 143 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $558 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 102 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.1% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.78%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $66,994
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: 56.73%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8600 West Ln #116	0.15mi	2/2.0	960 (0%)	8mo	$60,500	$63	87
8600 West Ln #68	0.12mi	2/1.0	960 (0%)	6mo	$85,000	$89	85
8600 West Ln	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,000 (+4%)	1mo	$34,000	$34	84
8600 N West Ln #95	0.12mi	2/2.0	940 (-2%)	14mo	$67,000	$71	79
8600 West Ln #19	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+8%)	15mo	$110,000	$106	66
8600 West Ln #25	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,064 (+11%)	11mo	$143,000	$134	61
8600 N West Ln #129	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,022 (+6%)	20mo	$140,000	$137	60
8700 NW 8700 West Ln #44	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,080 (+12%)	16mo	$110,000	$102	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $25,515
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.37×
• Total profit: $99,169
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95210

• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,625 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$131 /mo · $1,575/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $558

Break-even live

Break-even rent $919

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9211 Dalewood St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	898	$1,495	$1.66	3d	1	0.17mi
1031 Fallbrook Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	962	$1,695	$1.76	43d	1	0.49mi
7936 Montauban Ave Unit Labs Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,700	$1.70	10d	1	0.65mi
826 Astor Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,400	$1.65	23d	1	0.76mi
718 Bedlow Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	929	$1,250	$1.35	43d	1	0.80mi
718 Bedlow Dr Unit 720 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	929	$1,250	$1.35	2d	1	0.80mi
7926 Diana Marie Dr Unit 7926 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,800	$2.00	2d	1	1.04mi
307 Goya Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	808	$1,395	$1.73	43d	1	1.14mi
6465 West Ln Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	539	$1,270	$2.36	11d	1	1.26mi
6465 West Ln Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	539	$1,270	$2.36	23d	1	1.26mi
6465 West Ln Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	539	$1,320	$2.45	43d	1	1.26mi
7620 N El Dorado St Stockton, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	827	$1,538	$1.86	43d	1	1.38mi
8125 Kiltie Way Unit 8125 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	19d	1	1.42mi
6807 N El Dorado St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.5	980	$1,750	$1.79	23d	1	1.43mi
8650 Acapulco Way Stockton, CA	3.0	1.5	1100	$2,000	$1.82	43d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 143 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $105,000 Active 138 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $105,000 Active 135 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $105,000 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $105,000 Active 129 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 128 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 127 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 126 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 125 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,499
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,575
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,560
• − Management: −$1,560
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $5,343
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,282
• After-tax cash flow: $5,414/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,549
• Household income: $67,991
• Rent vs Own: 49.4% rent · 50.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1817.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Asian 31% Two or more races 21% White 13% Black 11% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Asian/Pacific 12% Other Indo-European 6%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -283.31%
• Current HPI: 349.495
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.09%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B