2412 Burns St · Combee Settlement, FL 33801

$145,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 945 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1950 10,637 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute starter home. 2/1 block home with wood parquet floors, Kraft pine paneling walls, nice sized kitchen with tiled floors and countertops, pretty sun porch to enjoy your mornings and inside utility. Home sits on large tree-shaded lot with detached shed. Purchase this property for as little as 3% down! This property is approved for HomePath Mortgage & HomePath Renovation Mortgage Financing. Please contact listing agent for more information.

Key facts

• Investment property
• No hoa
• 0.24 acre lot

Tags

• INVESTMENT PROPERTY
• WALKING DISTANCE TO THE LAKE
• NO HOA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; No lease restrictions; Furnished: negotiable
• HOA & community: No homeowners association indicated

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; East-facing; One story
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Oak trees on lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Other appliances
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $171 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (6.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#476 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 253 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $145k implies a 320% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,539 (6.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.05%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-15,264
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-9,743
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33801

• Home prices YoY: -15.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,355 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $949/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,139

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2417 Golfview St Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	798	$1,395	$1.75	10d	1	0.07mi
2248 Weber St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	640	$1,335	$2.09	3d	1	0.14mi
832 N Combee Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	560	$1,195	$2.13	23d	1	0.25mi
2625 Kelly Ln Lakeland, FL	1.0	1.0	560	$1,200	$2.14	23d	1	0.54mi
2437 Idlewild St Lakeland, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,099	$2.00	14d	1	0.68mi
2437 Idlewild St Lakeland, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,099	$2.00	23d	1	0.68mi
2415 Idlewild St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	23d	1	0.70mi
2184 Colonial Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1123	$1,645	$1.46	23d	1	0.92mi
3245 E Main St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	23d	1	1.09mi
3245 E Main St Unit 2 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	14d	1	1.09mi
1736 E Fern Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	820	$1,325	$1.62	23d	1	1.09mi
1452 Ridge Lake Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	960	$1,700	$1.77	21d	1	1.12mi
2023 Tennyson St Unit 2025 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	884	$1,095	$1.24	23d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   price $145,000
3. 2026-04-04
   listed $150,000 Active
4. 2015-04-08
   soldstatus $34,500
5. 2011-01-27
   soldstatus $27,000 451-char remark

   Show marketing remark (451 chars)

   Cute starter home. 2/1 block home with wood parquet floors, Kraft pine paneling walls, nice sized kitchen with tiled floors and countertops, pretty sun porch to enjoy your mornings and inside utility. Home sits on large tree-shaded lot with detached shed. Purchase this property for as little as 3% down! This property is approved for HomePath Mortgage & HomePath Renovation Mortgage Financing. Please contact listing agent for more information.

6. 2010-12-23
   historical
7. 2010-12-22
   listed $28,500 451-char remark

   Show marketing remark (451 chars)

   Cute starter home. 2/1 block home with wood parquet floors, Kraft pine paneling walls, nice sized kitchen with tiled floors and countertops, pretty sun porch to enjoy your mornings and inside utility. Home sits on large tree-shaded lot with detached shed. Purchase this property for as little as 3% down! This property is approved for HomePath Mortgage & HomePath Renovation Mortgage Financing. Please contact listing agent for more information.

8. 2010-05-18
   listed $30,000
9. 2005-12-28
   soldstatus $70,000
10. 1999-08-19
    soldstatus $69,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $949 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,204 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$255/yr (+$21/mo · 26.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,265
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$949
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,301
• − Management: −$1,301
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$352
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$84
• After-tax cash flow: $2,135/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Combee Settlement

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #8672

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Combee Settlement, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 33,460
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,394
• Household income: $53,061
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1291.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.91%
• Current HPI: 373.7159
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.05%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+107.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-04 Listed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $34,500 Public Records
• 2011-01-27 Sold (MLS) $27,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-12-23 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-12-22 Listed $28,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-05-18 Listed $30,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 1999-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $69,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $949 · +16.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.