14538 Shady Holw · Grand Haven, MI 49460

$46,499

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured · 31 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $47/sqft · 25% below area Est $62k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This spacious 3 bed/2 bath home is fully updated and includes all the must haves for your new home

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 31 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $46k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $863 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $46k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.6% vs local median 1.8% in Grand Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#69 in MI, #1,467 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• West Ottawa Public School District (suburban): math 37% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #140 of 540 in MI (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,237 units permitted in Ottawa County in 2024 (443 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $321 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ottawa County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $45,104 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 79.53%
• DSCR: 4.54
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $61,800
• List price: $46,499
• Delta: -24.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9045 4 Winds Ln W	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,012 (+3%)	3mo	$61,800	$61	77
14275 Winters Creek East	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-2%)	10mo	$65,000	$68	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 79.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.64×
• Total profit: $47,444
• Equity at exit: $6,933

10-year hold

• IRR: 83.1%
• Equity multiple: 9.62×
• Total profit: $112,171
• Equity at exit: $4,020

Cash invested: $13,020 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49460

• Home prices YoY: -30.4%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,499 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$244
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$58 /mo · $697/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $863

Break-even live

Break-even rent $407

Max offer price $46,499

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,625
• Closing costs: $1,395
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8930 146th Ave West Olive, MI	3.0–4.0	2.0	1424	$1,499	$1.05	2d	1	0.14mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-12
   price $47,499 98-char remark
2. 2026-04-29
   listed $46,499 Active 98-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,988
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,605
• − Property taxes: −$697
• − Insurance: −$232
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,439
• − Management: −$1,439
• − Depreciation: −$1,353
• Taxable income: $10,223
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,453
• After-tax cash flow: $7,901/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This fully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is in excellent condition and ready for move-in. Minor updates to the exterior and landscaping can further enhance its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more potential buyers or renters.
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and can be a selling point for both buyers and renters.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and increase the home's value.
• Resale Upgrading the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can attract more buyers and increase the home's value.
• Rental Adding a smart thermostat — Can reduce energy costs and attract renters who value energy efficiency.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and can be a selling point for both buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and increase the home's value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can attract more buyers and increase the home's value. ↑
• Rental Adding a smart thermostat — Can reduce energy costs and attract renters who value energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Ottawa Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2635910
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $58,127
• Composite: 38.94/100
• National rank: #4087
• State rank: #140 of 540 in MI

Livability — Grand Haven

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #69
• US rank: #1467

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 33,878
• Population (ZIP): 8,891

Population outlook (Ottawa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 313,561 people
• By 2030: 330,027 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 361,118 · +15.2%
• By 2050: 388,414 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 452,175 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 473,041 · +50.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Asian 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 24% Romanian 5% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ottawa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.0% · R 59.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+21.5 2016: R+30.4 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.51%
• Current HPI: 297.0617
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B