1703 Plantation Dr · Pecan Grove, TX 77406

$379,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,755 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 102 Days on market

Built 1983 9,997 sqft lot $138/sqft · 10% below area Est $420k · 10% under $23/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gorgeous 4-bedroom 3 full bath home with high ceilings in beautiful pecan Grove Plantation. Spacious formal dining upon entry with tile flooring. Huge family room with a gorgeous fireplace! perfect for entertaining guests! Huge primary suite downstairs with tile flooring and updated primary bath. An additional secondary bedroom with a full bathroom downstairs. Gorgeous Kitchen with granite countertops and backsplash. Beautifully done wooden stairs! Two additional bedrooms, a full bathroom and huge game room upstairs. Beautiful Laminate/ wood flooring upstairs. No carpet in the entire house. Brand new Roof with warranties, Detached Garage! Covered Patio and a huge back yard! Exemplary FBISD!

Key facts

• 9,997 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1983

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($998/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $358k (5.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $346k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.1% in Pecan Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#256 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1222 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($142k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($346k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask is 15102% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $345,709 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.94%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $419,900
• List price: $379,900
• Delta: -9.53%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1206 Austin Colony Dr	0.22mi	3/2.5	2,745 (-0%)	3mo	$510,000	$186	85
1706 N Hearthside Dr	0.03mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,030 (+10%)	3mo	$529,900	$175	72
2318 Quarterpath Dr	0.49mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,765 (+0%)	1mo	$499,000	$180	71
2215 Enchanted Path Ct	0.21mi	4/4.0 (+1)	2,920 (+6%)	1mo	$509,900	$175	70
1927 Pitts Rd	0.16mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,137 (+14%)	2mo	$450,000	$143	61
1611 Deerfield Ct	0.67mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,750 (-0%)	2mo	$500,000	$182	60
2814 Old South Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,694 (-2%)	1mo	$415,000	$154	58
1802 Quarterpath Dr	0.55mi	3/2.5	2,482 (-10%)	1mo	$380,000	$153	55
1915 Rock Fence Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	2,346 (-15%)	2mo	$410,000	$175	53
2315 Landscape Way	0.55mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,964 (+8%)	2mo	$420,000	$142	53
2710 Old South Dr	0.63mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,990 (+8%)	2mo	$384,990	$129	48
1311 Sweet Dumpling Dr	0.61mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,055 (+11%)	2mo	$599,900	$196	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-66,631
• Equity at exit: $56,644

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-91,243
• Equity at exit: $32,847

Cash invested: $106,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77406

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1222
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,582 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,992
• Tax from tax record: −$573 /mo · $6,874/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$752
• Net cashflow: $83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,476

Max offer price $379,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,975
• Closing costs: $11,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
707 Land Grant Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	1994	$2,595	$1.30	43d	1	0.77mi
331 Old Silo St Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	3568	$5,500	$1.54	18d	1	1.36mi
331 Old Silo St Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	3568	$5,500	$1.54	4d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $379,900 Active 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $379,900 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $379,900 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $379,900 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $379,900 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-05-07
   listed $2,499
7. 2026-04-09
   historical $2,499
8. 2026-03-20
   listed $2,499
9. 2026-02-22
   listed $379,900 Active 700-char remark

   Show marketing remark (700 chars)

   Gorgeous 4-bedroom 3 full bath home with high ceilings in beautiful pecan Grove Plantation. Spacious formal dining upon entry with tile flooring. Huge family room with a gorgeous fireplace! perfect for entertaining guests! Huge primary suite downstairs with tile flooring and updated primary bath. An additional secondary bedroom with a full bathroom downstairs. Gorgeous Kitchen with granite countertops and backsplash. Beautifully done wooden stairs! Two additional bedrooms, a full bathroom and huge game room upstairs. Beautiful Laminate/ wood flooring upstairs. No carpet in the entire house. Brand new Roof with warranties, Detached Garage! Covered Patio and a huge back yard! Exemplary FBISD!

10. 2024-11-19
    historical $2,500
11. 2024-10-30
    price $2,500
12. 2024-10-28
    listed $2,600
13. 2019-12-10
    historical
14. 2019-11-26
    listed $249,900 Active
15. 2019-10-07
    soldstatus Sold
16. 2019-09-11
    status Pending
17. 2019-08-29
    price $200,640
18. 2019-08-16
    status Active
19. 2019-06-18
    status Pending
20. 2019-06-01
    status Active
21. 2019-05-07
    status Pending
22. 2019-04-18
    listed $228,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,874 · $573/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,952 · $579/mo
• Expected delta: +$79/yr (+$7/mo · 1.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,980
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,280
• − Property taxes: −$6,874
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,438
• − Management: −$3,438
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$11,052
• Taxable loss: −$5,278
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,267
• After-tax cash flow: $2,265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pecan Grove

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #256
• US rank: #6017

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pecan Grove, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,918
• Household income: $141,869
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 575.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 14% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.18%
• Current HPI: 222.9525
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.61%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-98.9% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed for Rent $2,499 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Rental Removed $2,499 HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed for Rent $2,499 HARMLS
• 2026-02-22 Listed $379,900 HARMLS
• 2024-11-19 Rental Removed $2,500 HARMLS
• 2024-10-30 Price Changed $2,500 HARMLS
• 2024-10-28 Listed for Rent $2,600 HARMLS
• 2019-12-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-11-26 Listed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2019-10-07 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-09-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-08-29 Price Changed $200,640 HARMLS
• 2019-08-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2019-06-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-06-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2019-05-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-04-18 Listed $228,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,874 · -4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.