128 Brandon Ave · Warrington, FL 32507

$169,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 976 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1941 6,869 sqft lot $173/sqft · 9% above area Est $172k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3 bedroom cottage lose to the Navy base. Very close and convenient to many restaurants, shops, and banks etc. The house has a NEW ROOF. The exterior and interior have been freshly painted with freshly varnished hardwood floors. Come check out this cute cottage today!

Key facts

• Freshly painted
• New roof
• 6,869 sq ft lot

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• FRESHLY PAINTED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (covered, provides 1 covered parking space; total 1 parking space)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public water; Electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Single-story frame house; Off-grade foundation
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; One level; Off-grade foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; County-maintained road access; Public water

Interior

• Kitchen: Updated kitchen; New countertops and cabinet hardware; Gas water heater (appliance listed)
• Bedrooms: Two first-floor bedrooms (approx. 11' x 12' and 10' x 10')
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom, remodeled within last 1–5 years
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fan(s); Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Hardwood flooring; Remodeled bathroom (vanity and tub surround); Updated kitchen with new countertops and cabinet hardware; Formal dining room
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $136 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (9.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.3% in Warrington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#631 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 702 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $169k implies a 604% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,354 (9.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.45%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $172,032
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: -1.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
225 Delray Dr	0.06mi	2/1.0 (-1)	950 (-3%)	12mo	$149,000	$157	78
43 Druid Dr	0.15mi	3/1.0	864 (-12%)	2mo	$70,500	$82	72
1230 Wilson Ave	0.44mi	3/1.0	995 (+2%)	12mo	$210,000	$211	66
629 Rue Max St	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,020 (+4%)	1mo	$222,000	$218	65
209 Marine Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	984 (+1%)	2mo	$177,500	$180	63
1417 Dexter Ave	0.16mi	2/1.0 (-1)	888 (-9%)	13mo	$176,000	$198	62
10 N Runyan St	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+11%)	3mo	$105,000	$97	54
805 Rue Max St	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,106 (+13%)	1mo	$200,000	$181	52
207 Donald Dr	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	905 (-7%)	1mo	$100,000	$110	51
21 Patton Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,059 (+8%)	13mo	$66,000	$62	50
407 Rue Max St	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,029 (+5%)	10mo	$185,000	$180	48
101 Brandywine Rd	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,084 (+11%)	7mo	$198,000	$183	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-21,454
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-18,348
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32507

• Home prices YoY: -4.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 702
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,534 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,426/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,361

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $232	-5% $184	+0% $136	+5% $88	+10% $40
Rent	-10% $15	-5% $75	+0% $136	+5% $197	+10% $257
Rate	-1.0pp $221	-0.5pp $179	base $136	+0.5pp $92	+1.0pp $48

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1120 S Old Corry Field Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,295	$1.29	24d	1	0.23mi
7 Mindoro Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	924	$1,395	$1.51	24d	1	0.38mi
26 N Lincoln Rd Unit B Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	759	$1,050	$1.38	14d	1	0.46mi
99 S 3rd St Unit 3 Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.5	900	$1,259	$1.40	24d	1	0.49mi
45 W Carver Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	940	$1,325	$1.41	24d	1	0.53mi
405 E Palmetto Ave Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,800	$2.00	24d	1	0.72mi
1036 Hawthorn Dr Unit B Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	650	$800	$1.23	24d	1	0.74mi
2 E Sunset Ave Unit 3 Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	806	$1,350	$1.67	24d	1	0.79mi
113 Rue Max St Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	862	$1,395	$1.62	24d	1	0.98mi
190 N Old Corry Field Rd Pensacola, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,174	$1.28	14d	3	1.11mi
315 Flannan Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	836	$1,745	$2.09	14d	1	1.18mi
4600 Twin Oaks Dr Pensacola, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	838	$1,499	$1.79	14d	29	1.20mi
102 SE Kalash Rd Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.0	1029	$1,800	$1.75	24d	1	1.21mi
718 Mills Ave Unit A Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	728	$1,200	$1.65	24d	1	1.31mi
316 Teakwood Cir Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.5	1024	$1,350	$1.32	14d	1	1.39mi
5 Elegans Ave Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	788	$1,195	$1.52	24d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    listed $179,000 Active 276-char remark
16. 1995-05-04
    soldstatus $24,000
17. 1988-07-01
    soldstatus $22,000
18. 1983-09-01
    soldstatus $24,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,426 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,426 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,402
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$1,426
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,472
• − Management: −$1,472
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$1,196
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$287
• After-tax cash flow: $1,919/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Warrington

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #631
• US rank: #12396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warrington, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,226
• Household income: $73,540
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1175.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 10% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.23%
• Current HPI: 548.03
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.22%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+604.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $169,000 PARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $179,000 PARMLS
• 1995-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records
• 1988-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records
• 1983-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,426 · +18.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.