106 S La Huerta Cir · La Huerta, NM 88220

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · SingleFamily · 27 Days on market

Built 1997 0.26 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Excellent opportunity to own a well-maintained home on a large lot with CID water rights. Set just outside of city limits in North Carlsbad. This home includes 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, including a roomy primary suite with a large soaking tub. Unwind on the covered porch overlooking the vibrant well-kept backyard. The property shines during the warm seasons, with irrigation rights helping to maintain the lush lawn and established pecan trees. Additional outdoor features include an oversized storage building for extras and hobbies, as well as a solidly constructed metal carport to help protect your vehicles from the harsh elements. Call your favorite Realtor to schedule a showing toda

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Irrigation rights
• Irrigated lot

Tags

• IRRIGATED LOT
• IRRIGATION RIGHTS
• COVERED PORCH
• LARGE STORAGE BUILDING
• ESTABLISHED PECAN TREES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2-car garage; Attached carport
• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Chain link fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Window unit cooling
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $26 ($311/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (23.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#6 in NM, #3,271 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D, amenities F.
• Zoned schools: Early Childhood Education Center (170 students, 25% FRL); Carlsbad Intermediate School - Pr Leyva Campus (817 students, 27% FRL); Carlsbad High (1,551 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: 369 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 156 units permitted in Eddy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Eddy County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,586 (23.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.47%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-36,545
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-30,166
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88220

• Active inventory: 369
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,796 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $751/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,763

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $159	-5% $92	+0% $26	+5% $-41	+10% $-107
Rent	-10% $-116	-5% $-45	+0% $26	+5% $97	+10% $168
Rate	-1.0pp $144	-0.5pp $86	base $26	+0.5pp $-35	+1.0pp $-97

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
601 W Orchard Ln Carlsbad, NM	2.0	1.5	1400	$1,700	$1.21	45d	2	1.18mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $235,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $235,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $235,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $235,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $235,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $235,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 5 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $235,000 Active 4 DOM
18. 2026-05-22
    listed $235,000 Active
19. 2026-02-04
    price $235,000
20. 2007-02-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $751 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,880 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,129/yr (+$94/mo · 150.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,550
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$751
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,724
• − Management: −$1,724
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$3,823
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$918
• After-tax cash flow: $1,228/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — La Huerta

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #3271

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: La Huerta, NM
• County: Eddy County · 58,370 people
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• Population (ZIP): 39,828
• Household income: $78,162
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 661.0

Population outlook (Eddy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,505 people
• By 2030: 69,797 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 79,191 · +20.9%
• By 2050: 89,199 · +36.2%
• By 2075: 115,829 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 129,336 · +97.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 46% Two or more races 22% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Eddy

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.9) · D 21.4% · R 77.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -55.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.9 2020: R+51.8 2016: R+41.6 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -283.72%
• Current HPI: 114.115
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $235,000 NMMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $235,000 NMMLS
• 2007-02-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $751 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.