100 Lake Chelan Shores Dr Unit 17-4C · Chelan, WA 98816

$2,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 884 sqft · Timeshare · 309 Days on market

Built 1991 $3/sqft · at area comps Est $2k · at est. $130/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 49% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Lake Chelan Shores Timeshare Condominiums. This ground floor unit has two bedrooms and one and three-quarter bathrooms. This is the perfect place to enjoy your vacations. Pool is right outside your porch. Enjoy 3 floating weeks a year. Enjoy all the amenities that Lake Chelan Shores has to offer: Boat launch, buoys, dock, Clubhouse, 5 pools (one is covered during winter months), hot tub, fitness center, tennis courts, pickleball courts, playground and more. You can rent watercraft right by the boat launch. HOA dues are $389.60 a quarter. For 2025: 11/21/25-11/28/25, 2026 weeks 2/20/26-2/27/226, 6/19/26-6/26/26,10/16/26-10/23/26

Key facts

• Ground floor unit
• Dock
• Clubhouse

Tags

• GROUND FLOOR UNIT
• POOL RIGHT OUTSIDE PORCH
• BOAT LAUNCH
• DOCK
• CLUBHOUSE
• 5 POOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath timeshare listed at $2k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $964 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $2k).
• Recommended offer: $2k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 469.1% vs local median 0.5% in Chelan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in WA, #900 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Lake Chelan School District (town): math 41% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #161 of 291 in WA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 338 active listings in the ZIP; 762 units permitted in Chelan County in 2024 (377 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $17 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $75 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chelan County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $700 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 309 days — a 12% lower offer ($2k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $2k (50%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 309 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 56.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 469.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 1652.83%
• DSCR: 74.54
• GRM: 0.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,500
• List price: $2,500
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
100 Lake Chelan Shores Dr Unit 17-8J	0.00mi	2/2.0	884 (0%)	5mo	$1,500	$2	96
100 Lake Chelan Shores Dr Unit 17-4 P	0.00mi	2/2.0	884 (0%)	5mo	$2,500	$3	96
100 Lake Chelan Shores Dr Unit 16-3K	0.00mi	2/2.0	809 (-8%)	18mo	$1,500	$2	71
100 Lake Chelan Shores Dr Unit 8-8 L	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,014 (+15%)	15mo	$3,750	$4	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 88.29×
• Total profit: $61,103
• Equity at exit: $373

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 190.56×
• Total profit: $132,690
• Equity at exit: $216

Cash invested: $700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98816

• Active inventory: 338
• Price-to-rent: 0.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,407 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$13
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$3 /mo · $38/yr
• Insurance: −$1
• HOA: −$130
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $964

Break-even live

Break-even rent $186

Max offer price $2,500

Occupancy floor 26%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $625
• Closing costs: $75
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $130 · $1,560/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,500 Active 309 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,500 Active 308 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,500 Active 307 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,500 Active 306 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $2,500 Active 304 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,500 Active 303 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $2,500 Active 301 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,500 Active 300 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,500 Active 299 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $2,500 Active 298 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $2,500 Active 295 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,500 Active 293 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,500 Active 292 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,500 Active 291 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $2,500 Active 290 DOM
16. 2026-04-27
    price $2,500
17. 2025-08-13
    listed $5,000 Active
18. 2018-08-02
    soldstatus $4,900
19. 2018-04-20
    listed $4,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 23 unhealthy d/yr today · 23 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,882
• − Mortgage interest: −$140
• − Property taxes: −$38
• − Insurance: −$12
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,351
• − Management: −$1,351
• − HOA: −$1,560
• − Depreciation: −$73
• Taxable income: $12,358
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,966
• After-tax cash flow: $8,604/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Chelan School District
• NCES district ID: 5301200
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $47,402
• Composite: 42.95/100
• National rank: #6687
• State rank: #161 of 291 in WA

Livability — Chelan

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #900

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute C+ Cost of living D- Crime B+ Employment C Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chelan, WA
• Population (ZIP): 7,677

Population outlook (Chelan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,630 people
• By 2030: 84,312 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 88,619 · +8.6%
• By 2050: 91,915 · +12.6%
• By 2075: 99,409 · +21.8%
• By 2100: 100,032 · +22.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 34% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chelan

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.5) · D 43.9% · R 53.4% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -12.0pp · 2024: -9.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.5 2020: R+7.8 2016: R+15.7 2012: R+16.9 2008: R+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -337.82%
• Current HPI: 172.2776
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-49.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $2,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-13 Listed $5,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-02 Sold (MLS) $4,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-20 Listed $4,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid