Pearson Plan · Heron Bay, GA 30248

$383,650

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,803 sqft · SingleFamily · 251 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Pearson home plan showcases a beautiful kitchen featuring a large walk-in pantry and spacious island. From the kitchen, you have views of the inviting family room and breakfast nook with access to the deck/patio. A private guest retreat on the main level of this home also makes an ideal home office or study. A convenient full bathroom off the guest retreat completes the main level of this home plan. The second floor provides flexibility for how you live and work, with three spacious secondary bedrooms, lots of closet space, a linen closet, a laundry room, and a full bathroom. The primary bedroom suite is the ideal retreat, complete with a double vanity, linen closet, a walk-in shower, and a walk-in closet. As a bonus, the Pearson offers an amazing loft space for you to use as a flex area, game room, office, or media area.

Key facts

• Spacious island
• Flex area
• Media area

Tags

• WALK-IN PANTRY
• SPACIOUS ISLAND
• PRIVATE GUEST RETREAT
• FLEX AREA
• GAME ROOM
• MEDIA AREA

🏗️ New construction. The $383,650 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $445,330.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $384k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-639 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $353k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $309k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $309k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#159 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Henry County (rural): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #89 of 174 in GA (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Bethlehem Elementary School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #753 of 1,228 statewide, top 64%, 474 students, 53% FRL); Luella Middle School (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #345 of 470 statewide, top 74%, 870 students, 53% FRL); Luella High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #277 of 424 statewide, top 67%, 1,373 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 732 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,989 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (92 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 251 days — a 12% lower offer ($338k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $308,630 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 251 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.15%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $445,330
• List price: $383,650
• Delta: -13.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7316 Tenton Xing	0.07mi	5/3.0	2,801 (-0%)	1mo	$433,170	$155	96
7328 Tenton Xing	0.08mi	5/3.0	2,801 (-0%)	0mo	$424,305	$151	96
7312 Tenton Xing	0.06mi	5/3.0	2,866 (+2%)	2mo	$428,000	$149	92
7320 Tenton Xing	0.08mi	5/3.0	2,866 (+2%)	1mo	$452,820	$158	92
6508 Terraglen Way	0.39mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,875 (+3%)	8mo	$430,000	$150	66
5356 Heron Bay Blvd	0.15mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,409 (-14%)	1mo	$435,000	$181	62
5337 Heron Bay Blvd	0.09mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,409 (-14%)	4mo	$374,000	$155	62
5345 Heron Bay Blvd	0.11mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,409 (-14%)	4mo	$384,470	$160	61
5353 Heron Bay Blvd	0.14mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,409 (-14%)	7mo	$384,470	$160	57
7204 Eton Ln	0.30mi	5/4.0	3,208 (+14%)	6mo	$465,000	$145	53
6856 Louis Dr Lot 1	0.29mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,223 (+15%)	7mo	$480,000	$149	48
7663 Watson Cir	0.72mi	5/3.0	2,556 (-9%)	5mo	$349,000	$137	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-115,426
• Equity at exit: $66,400

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-163,197
• Equity at exit: $38,504

Cash invested: $124,692 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 17 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.3 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $414,900 ($157/sqft)
• Median days on market: 114 d
• This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 30248

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 732
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,086 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,335
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$557 /mo · $6,680/yr
• Insurance: −$186
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$648
• Net cashflow: $-639

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,896

Max offer price $352,808

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-332	-5% $-486	+0% $-639	+5% $-793	+10% $-947
Rent	-10% $-883	-5% $-761	+0% $-639	+5% $-517	+10% $-396
Rate	-1.0pp $-415	-0.5pp $-526	base $-639	+0.5pp $-755	+1.0pp $-872

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,332
• Closing costs: $13,360
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5341 Heron Bay Blvd Locust Grove, GA	4.0	2.5	2091	$2,800	$1.34	93d	1	0.11mi
6138 Golf View Xing Locust Grove, GA	5.0	3.0	3088	$3,073	$1.00	6d	1	0.56mi
7663 Watson Cir Locust Grove, GA	5.0	3.0	2556	$2,800	$1.10	49d	1	0.72mi
817 Brampton Way Locust Grove, GA	5.0	2.5	3023	$3,500	$1.16	0d	1	1.11mi
1201 Shelborne Way Locust Grove, GA	5.0	4.0	3304	$2,895	$0.88	2d	1	1.20mi
1421 Kentmire Ct Locust Grove, GA	5.0	4.0	3498	$3,086	$0.88	2d	1	1.38mi
1629 Prospect Pl Locust Grove, GA	5.0	3.0	3350	$2,730	$0.81	120d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $383,650 Active 251 DOM
2. 2026-09-21
   days on market $383,650 Active 249 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $383,650 Active 248 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $383,650 Active 247 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $383,650 Active 246 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $383,650 Active 245 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $383,650 Active 244 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $383,650 Active 243 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $383,650 Active 242 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $383,650 Active 241 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $383,650 Active 240 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $383,650 Active 239 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $383,650 Active 233 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $383,650 Active 232 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $383,650 Active 231 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $383,650 Active 228 DOM
17. 2026-08-29
    days on market $383,650 Active 226 DOM
18. 2026-08-28
    days on market $383,650 Active 225 DOM
19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $383,650 Active 224 DOM
20. 2026-08-25
    days on market $383,650 Active 222 DOM
21. 2026-08-24
    days on market $383,650 Active 221 DOM
22. 2026-08-23
    days on market $383,650 Active 220 DOM
23. 2026-08-22
    days on market $383,650 Active 219 DOM
24. 2026-08-21
    days on market $383,650 Active 218 DOM
25. 2026-08-20
    days on market $383,650 Active 217 DOM
26. 2026-08-19
    days on market $383,650 Active 216 DOM
27. 2026-08-18
    days on market $383,650 Active 215 DOM
28. 2026-08-17
    days on market $383,650 Active 214 DOM
29. 2026-08-16
    days on market $383,650 Active 213 DOM
30. 2026-08-15
    days on market $383,650 Active 212 DOM
31. 2026-08-14
    days on market $383,650 Active 211 DOM
32. 2026-08-13
    days on market $383,650 Active 210 DOM
33. 2026-08-12
    days on market $383,650 Active 209 DOM
34. 2026-08-11
    days on market $383,650 Active 208 DOM
35. 2026-08-10
    days on market $383,650 Active 207 DOM
36. 2026-08-09
    days on market $383,650 Active 206 DOM
37. 2026-08-08
    days on market $383,650 Active 205 DOM
38. 2026-08-06
    days on market $383,650 Active 203 DOM
39. 2026-08-05
    days on market $383,650 Active 202 DOM
40. 2026-08-04
    days on market $383,650 Active 201 DOM
41. 2026-08-03
    days on market $383,650 Active 200 DOM
42. 2026-07-31
    days on market $383,650 Active 197 DOM
43. 2026-07-30
    days on market $383,650 Active 195 DOM
44. 2026-07-28
    days on market $383,650 Active 194 DOM
45. 2026-07-26
    days on market $383,650 Active 192 DOM
46. 2026-07-24
    days on market $383,650 Active 190 DOM
47. 2026-07-23
    pricedays on market $383,650 Active 189 DOM
48. 2026-07-22
    days on market $383,400 Active 188 DOM
49. 2026-07-20
    days on market $383,400 Active 186 DOM
50. 2026-07-18
    days on market $383,400 Active 184 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,945
• − Property taxes: −$6,680
• − Insurance: −$2,227
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,963
• − Management: −$2,963
• − Depreciation: −$12,955
• Taxable loss: −$15,697
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,767
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,905/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can further enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modernizing bathrooms can enhance the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract tenants and reduce maintenance costs. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 21/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Bethlehem Elementary School F GA #753/1,228 Nat'l #30,133/41,679 Middle Luella Middle School F GA #345/470 Nat'l #11,564/14,009 High Luella High School F GA #277/424 Nat'l #15,029/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henry County
• NCES district ID: 1302820
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $62,594
• Composite: 26.13/100
• National rank: #7279
• State rank: #89 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Heron Bay

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #159
• US rank: #10151

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heron Bay, GA
• County: Henry County · 249,041 people
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 36,038
• Household income: $83,823
• Rent vs Own: 15.8% rent · 84.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 249,041 people
• By 2030: 264,369 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 294,459 · +18.2%
• By 2050: 322,249 · +29.4%
• By 2075: 392,310 · +57.5%
• By 2100: 437,836 · +75.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 37% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.7) · D 64.5% · R 34.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +37.1pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 29.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.7 2020: D+20.5 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+3.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.09%
• Current HPI: 203.5358
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.16%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+2.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $378,400 Zillow
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $377,400 Zillow
• 2026-01-15 Listed $369,900 Zillow