Peak (Independence Hill) Plan · Morristown, TN 37814

$59,995

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 275 Days on market

Fair condition $630/mo HOA · 55% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Independence Hill boasts a wide range of amenities that cater to the diverse needs of its residents. Located only minutes from Morgantown Municipal Airport, Interstates 79 and 68, and the University of West Virginia Campus, the community provides a feeling of quiet and peaceful country living with big city amenities. Experience the rolling hills and beautiful views of the community. Just outside the front entrance, a whole world of shopping, dining and recreation opportunities await. An ideal location in Morgantown places you only moments from the shopping and dining pleasures of Suncrest Town Centre or Morgantown Mall, several golf courses, West Virginia University Art Museum, Hazel Ruby McQuain Riverfront Park, and both Mountaineer Field and West Virginia Coliseum, where you can see University football, basketball, and volleyball games. Other nearby attractions include several golf courses, West Virginia University Art Museum, Hazel Ruby McQuain Riverfront Park, Mountaineer Field, and West Virginia Coliseum, where you can see University football, basketball, and volleyball games. The Rail Trail offers hiking along the scenic Deckers Creek and the Monongahela River. Community Amenities Basketball Court, Clubhouse, On-Site Management, Pet-Friendly, Picnic Area, and Playground

Key facts

• Suncrest town centre
• Mountaineer field
• Golf courses

Tags

• MORGANTOWN MUNICIPAL AIRPORT
• INTERSTATES 79 AND 68
• SUNCREST TOWN CENTRE
• MORGANTOWN MALL
• GOLF COURSES
• MOUNTAINEER FIELD

🏗️ New construction. The $59,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $190,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $40k (33.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (33.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate -0.2% vs local median 2.9% in Morristown — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#175 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hamblen County (urban): math 31% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #57 of 139 in TN (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fairview Marguerite (math 28% / reading 23%, grade F, #536 of 952 statewide, top 57%, 490 students, 0% FRL); Meadowview Middle School (math 28% / reading 16%, grade F, #176 of 333 statewide, top 55%, 627 students, 0% FRL); Morristown East High (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #129 of 332 statewide, top 43%, 1,572 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 332 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 298 units permitted in Hamblen County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 275 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.8% of price; HOA is 55% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $40,142 (33.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 275 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: -0.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -23.36%
• DSCR: -0.04
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $190,000
• List price: $59,995
• Delta: -68.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -66.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.81×
• Total profit: $-96,344
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -2.14×
• Total profit: $-167,186
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37814

• Home prices YoY: -17.1%
• Active inventory: 332
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,149 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$238 /mo · $2,850/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$630
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $-1,036

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,460

Max offer price $40,142

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-904	-5% $-970	+0% $-1,036	+5% $-1,101	+10% $-1,167
Rent	-10% $-1,126	-5% $-1,081	+0% $-1,036	+5% $-990	+10% $-945
Rate	-1.0pp $-940	-0.5pp $-987	base $-1,036	+0.5pp $-1,085	+1.0pp $-1,135

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1621 Jefferson St Morristown, TN	1.0	1.0	1100	$1,099	$1.00	45d	1	0.33mi
1623 Jefferson St Morristown, TN	1.0	1.0	550	$1,099	$2.00	45d	1	0.34mi
2429 Buffalo Trl Unit 2 Morristown, TN	1.0	1.0	650	$1,000	$1.54	45d	1	0.48mi
1020 E Main St Unit 2 Morristown, TN	1.0	1.0	980	$1,100	$1.12	45d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $630 · $7,560/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $59,995 Active 275 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $59,995 Active 273 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,995 Active 272 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,995 Active 271 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,995 Active 270 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,995 Active 269 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $59,995 Active 267 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $59,995 Active 266 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,995 Active 263 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $59,995 Active 262 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,995 Active 261 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $59,995 Active 258 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,995 Active 256 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,995 Active 255 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,995 Active 254 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $59,995 Active 253 DOM
17. 2025-09-19
    listed $59,995 Active 1296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1296 chars)

    Independence Hill boasts a wide range of amenities that cater to the diverse needs of its residents. Located only minutes from Morgantown Municipal Airport, Interstates 79 and 68, and the University of West Virginia Campus, the community provides a feeling of quiet and peaceful country living with big city amenities. Experience the rolling hills and beautiful views of the community. Just outside the front entrance, a whole world of shopping, dining and recreation opportunities await. An ideal location in Morgantown places you only moments from the shopping and dining pleasures of Suncrest Town Centre or Morgantown Mall, several golf courses, West Virginia University Art Museum, Hazel Ruby McQuain Riverfront Park, and both Mountaineer Field and West Virginia Coliseum, where you can see University football, basketball, and volleyball games. Other nearby attractions include several golf courses, West Virginia University Art Museum, Hazel Ruby McQuain Riverfront Park, Mountaineer Field, and West Virginia Coliseum, where you can see University football, basketball, and volleyball games. The Rail Trail offers hiking along the scenic Deckers Creek and the Monongahela River. Community Amenities Basketball Court, Clubhouse, On-Site Management, Pet-Friendly, Picnic Area, and Playground

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,783
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,850
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,103
• − Management: −$1,103
• − HOA: −$7,560
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$15,952
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,829
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,599/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires significant repairs and updates across multiple systems and areas, including painting, flooring, windows, HVAC, and landscaping. These improvements would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen — No photos of kitchen
• Major bathrooms — No photos of bathrooms
• Major exterior — No photos of exterior
• Major flooring — No photos of flooring
• Major interior walls/paint — No photos of interior walls/paint
• Major windows — No photos of windows
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No photos of HVAC/mechanicals
• Major landscaping/curb appeal — No photos of landscaping/curb appeal

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in the home's appearance and value
• Resale repair and replace flooring — Updated flooring can enhance the home's appeal and value
• Resale repair and replace windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency and increase the home's value
• Resale update HVAC/mechanicals — Modernized HVAC can improve comfort and energy efficiency, boosting the home's value
• Resale landscape and improve curb appeal — A well-maintained exterior can attract more buyers and increase the home's value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen · No photos of kitchen	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · No photos of bathrooms	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior · No photos of exterior	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · No photos of flooring	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · No photos of interior walls/paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · No photos of windows	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No photos of HVAC/mechanicals	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping/curb appeal · No photos of landscaping/curb appeal	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$120,000–400,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in the home's appearance and value ↑
• Resale repair and replace flooring — Updated flooring can enhance the home's appeal and value ↑
• Resale repair and replace windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency and increase the home's value ↑
• Resale update HVAC/mechanicals — Modernized HVAC can improve comfort and energy efficiency, boosting the home's value ↑
• Resale landscape and improve curb appeal — A well-maintained exterior can attract more buyers and increase the home's value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamblen County
• NCES district ID: 4700001
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,361
• Composite: 25.61/100
• National rank: #7412
• State rank: #57 of 139 in TN

Livability — Morristown

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #175
• US rank: #14625

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Morristown, TN
• County: Hamblen County · 35,239 people
• City population: 35,239
• Metro: Morristown, TN
• Population (ZIP): 35,239
• Household income: $55,650
• Rent vs Own: 33.5% rent · 66.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1001.0

Population outlook (Hamblen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,185 people
• By 2030: 65,707 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 66,189 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 65,798 · +0.9%
• By 2075: 62,642 · -3.9%
• By 2100: 55,702 · -14.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 12% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamblen

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.1% · R 79.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: -38.4pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.0 2016: R+57.2 2012: R+46.4 2008: R+38.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.88%
• Current HPI: 299.6486
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Morristown, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-19 Listed $59,995 Zillow