128 Box Ave · Buffalo, NY 14211

$129,900

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,058 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1900 3,627 sqft lot $63/sqft · 36% below area Est $204k · 36% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity or perfect for owner-occupants! This multi-family home offers two distinct units with living space. The first-floor unit features 2 bedrooms, a full bathroom, a large living room, formal dining area, ideal for comfortable everyday living. same layout on the second floor. Separate utilities, and a convenient location close to schools, shopping, and highways make this a smart buy. Don’t miss out on this investment or owner occupied property! --

Key facts

• Separate utilities
• Two distinct units
• Convenient location

Tags

• MULTI-FAMILY HOME
• TWO DISTINCT UNITS
• SEPARATE UTILITIES
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $740 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: International School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,048 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 981 students, 92% FRL); Hutchinson Central Technical High School (math 96% / reading 32%, grade B-, #807 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 1,175 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,073/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($36k/yr) (locally 1804% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $122,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.40%
• DSCR: 2.09
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $204,317
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -36.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
463 E Ferry St Unit S	0.68mi	5/1.0 (-1)	1,782 (-13%)	16mo	$94,000	$53	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $56,373
• Equity at exit: $51,582

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.93×
• Total profit: $143,026
• Equity at exit: $74,545

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14211

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,073 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,948/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $740

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,136

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $829	-5% $785	+0% $740	+5% $695	+10% $650
Rent	-10% $576	-5% $658	+0% $740	+5% $822	+10% $903
Rate	-1.0pp $805	-0.5pp $773	base $740	+0.5pp $706	+1.0pp $672

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
518 Wilson St Buffalo, NY	5.0	1.5	1848	$1,500	$0.81	25d	1	0.93mi
15 Hughes Ave Buffalo, NY	7.0	2.0	1650	$3,000	$1.82	45d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-04-09
    listed $129,900 Active 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Great investment opportunity or perfect for owner-occupants! This multi-family home offers two distinct units with living space. The first-floor unit features 2 bedrooms, a full bathroom, a large living room, formal dining area, ideal for comfortable everyday living. same layout on the second floor. Separate utilities, and a convenient location close to schools, shopping, and highways make this a smart buy. Don’t miss out on this investment or owner occupied property! --

17. 2023-08-25
    soldstatus $140,000 Closed Sale or Rented 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    Great opportunity in the city of Buffalo! 3/3 double with split utilities! Lower unit has fresh paint and carpet, as well as updated windows. Porch roof was recently done, and the seller intends to have the main roof on the house done prior to closing. This is great for an investment or owner occupy and let your tenant contribute to the mortgage. Showings begin right away and offers will be reviewed as they come in!

18. 2023-08-25
    soldstatus $140,000

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    Great opportunity in the city of Buffalo! 3/3 double with split utilities! Lower unit has fresh paint and carpet, as well as updated windows. Porch roof was recently done, and the seller intends to have the main roof on the house done prior to closing. This is great for an investment or owner occupy and let your tenant contribute to the mortgage. Showings begin right away and offers will be reviewed as they come in!

19. 2023-06-27
    status Pending Sale 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    Great opportunity in the city of Buffalo! 3/3 double with split utilities! Lower unit has fresh paint and carpet, as well as updated windows. Porch roof was recently done, and the seller intends to have the main roof on the house done prior to closing. This is great for an investment or owner occupy and let your tenant contribute to the mortgage. Showings begin right away and offers will be reviewed as they come in!

20. 2023-06-15
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    Great opportunity in the city of Buffalo! 3/3 double with split utilities! Lower unit has fresh paint and carpet, as well as updated windows. Porch roof was recently done, and the seller intends to have the main roof on the house done prior to closing. This is great for an investment or owner occupy and let your tenant contribute to the mortgage. Showings begin right away and offers will be reviewed as they come in!

21. 2023-04-20
    listed $139,900 Active 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    Great opportunity in the city of Buffalo! 3/3 double with split utilities! Lower unit has fresh paint and carpet, as well as updated windows. Porch roof was recently done, and the seller intends to have the main roof on the house done prior to closing. This is great for an investment or owner occupy and let your tenant contribute to the mortgage. Showings begin right away and offers will be reviewed as they come in!

22. 2023-01-30
    historical
23. 2023-01-16
    listed $139,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,872
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,948
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,990
• − Management: −$1,990
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $7,239
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,737
• After-tax cash flow: $7,139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,663
• Household income: $36,300
• Rent vs Own: 54.8% rent · 45.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1804.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% Asian 20% Hispanic / Latino 9% White 9% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Other Indo-European 14% Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Current HPI: 357.6438
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $129,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2023-08-25 Sold (MLS) $140,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-06-27 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-06-15 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-04-20 Listed $139,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-01-30 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2023-01-16 Listed $139,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+15.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $135 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.