811 S Hemlock Trl · Winchester, IN 47394

$134,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,168 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1978 0.25 ac lot $115/sqft · at area comps Est $141k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming 3 bedroom, 1.5 bathroom home nestled in a quiet neighborhood in Winchester! Offering a convenient and functional layout, this home is perfect for comfortable everyday living. You’ll appreciate the attached 1 car garage and spacious living areas. This home is conveniently located near stores and restaurants.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1978

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount listed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with concrete parking; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Single-family residential, site-built; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Asphalt shingle roof; Built area above grade: 1,168
• Exterior features: Deck; No fencing; Lot dimensions approximately 87 x 124 (0.25 acre)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater; Water softener (owned)
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 2 main-level bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Baseboard heating; Ceiling fans; no central cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Laminate countertops; One fireplace (no special features listed)
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $62 ($741/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $114k (15.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 5.1% in Winchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#240 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Randolph Central School Corporation (town): math 32% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #201 of 301 in IN (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lee L Driver Middle School (math 27% / reading 33%, grade F, #208 of 330 statewide, top 64%, 291 students, 56% FRL); Winchester Community High School (math 17% / reading 47%, grade F, #295 of 369 statewide, top 82%, 414 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Randolph County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Randolph County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $135k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $114,078 (15.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.96%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $140,751
• List price: $134,900
• Delta: -4.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1249 E Greenville Pike	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,196 (+2%)	6mo	$164,000	$137	80
808 S Elm Blvd	0.27mi	3/1.5	1,040 (-11%)	0mo	$142,500	$137	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $77,361
• Equity at exit: $121,529

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.95×
• Total profit: $224,645
• Equity at exit: $262,081

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 47394

• Home prices YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,141 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $910/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,063

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $138	-5% $100	+0% $62	+5% $24	+10% $-15
Rent	-10% $-28	-5% $17	+0% $62	+5% $107	+10% $152
Rate	-1.0pp $130	-0.5pp $96	base $62	+0.5pp $27	+1.0pp $-9

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-15
   listed $134,900 Active 339-char remark

   Show marketing remark (339 chars)

   Welcome to this charming 3 bedroom, 1.5 bathroom home nestled in a quiet neighborhood in Winchester! Offering a convenient and functional layout, this home is perfect for comfortable everyday living. You’ll appreciate the attached 1 car garage and spacious living areas. This home is conveniently located near stores and restaurants.

2. 2026-05-15
   listed $134,900 Active 339-char remark

   Show marketing remark (339 chars)

   Welcome to this charming 3 bedroom, 1.5 bathroom home nestled in a quiet neighborhood in Winchester! Offering a convenient and functional layout, this home is perfect for comfortable everyday living. You’ll appreciate the attached 1 car garage and spacious living areas. This home is conveniently located near stores and restaurants.

3. 2020-01-09
   soldstatus $79,200
4. 2019-12-06
   listed $80,000
5. 2015-09-11
   listed $73,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $910 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,029 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$118/yr (+$10/mo · 13.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,689
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$910
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,095
• − Management: −$1,095
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable loss: −$1,567
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$376
• After-tax cash flow: $1,117/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Randolph Central School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1801770
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,627
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6589
• State rank: #201 of 301 in IN

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #240
• US rank: #10313

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winchester, IN
• City population: 8,137
• Population (ZIP): 8,137

Population outlook (Randolph County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,998 people
• By 2030: 21,815 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 19,360 · -15.8%
• By 2050: 17,010 · -26.0%
• By 2075: 12,491 · -45.7%
• By 2100: 8,986 · -60.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Randolph

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.7) · D 22.3% · R 75.9% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.9pp toward R · 2008: -8.8pp · 2024: -53.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.7 2020: R+52.4 2016: R+48.5 2012: R+24.1 2008: R+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.76%
• Current HPI: 233.216
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+84.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Pending — RRELMS
• 2026-05-29 Pending — IRMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $134,900 IRMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $134,900 RRELMS
• 2020-01-09 Sold (MLS) $79,200 IRMLS
• 2019-12-06 Listed $80,000 IRMLS
• 2015-09-11 Listed $73,000 IRMLS

Property tax history

-2.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $910 · -4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.