2604 Lapeer Ave · Saginaw, MI 48601

$59,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1956 0.29 ac lot Est $71k · 15% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This brick house offers three bedrooms, three bathrooms, and almost 1,600 square feet of single-level living space. The bedrooms have hardwood floors, and there may be additional hardwood beneath the carpeting. Outside, you'll find a spacious driveway in the front and a cement patio in the backyard. The home sits on a corner lot in Saginaw.

Key facts

• Brick house
• Cement patio
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• BRICK HOUSE
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• CEMENT PATIO
• CORNER LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed by NextHome Greater Tri-cities
• Financial info: Financial details not provided
• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 garage space
• Security: Security features not provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Lot roughly 117 x 110 feet; Approximately 0.29 acre lot; Located in EASTWOOD PARK SUBDIVISION; Near Moton Dr / S 21st

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen details not provided
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms information not provided
• Flooring: Flooring details not provided
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 2 half bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central cooling
• Interior features: Living room fireplace; Crawl space basement; Total of 4 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry details not provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $620 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $58k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.7% vs local median 7.8% in Saginaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Saginaw School District (urban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #444 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 200 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $58,103 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.39%
• DSCR: 2.97
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $70,720
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
548 S 26th St	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,392 (+2%)	2mo	$72,400	$52	63
3 Harmony Ct	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,318 (-3%)	7mo	$101,000	$77	59
3026 Janes Rd	0.31mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,248 (-8%)	11mo	$44,000	$35	58
3026 Janes Rd	0.32mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,248 (-8%)	11mo	$44,000	$35	57
1621 Carroll Street Rd	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,410 (+4%)	1mo	$67,000	$48	55
333 S 23rd St	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,191 (-12%)	14mo	$44,900	$38	55
440 S 28th St	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,477 (+9%)	8mo	$124,900	$85	51
3185 Walnut St	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,348 (-1%)	12mo	$139,000	$103	50
334 S 31st St	0.68mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,304 (-4%)	16mo	$29,000	$22	42
541 S 24th St	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,188 (-13%)	17mo	$65,500	$55	40
637 S 26th St	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,520 (+12%)	11mo	$129,900	$85	37
524 S 14th St	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,508 (+11%)	18mo	$27,000	$18	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $29,863
• Equity at exit: $8,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.60×
• Total profit: $77,118
• Equity at exit: $5,179

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48601

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Active inventory: 200
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,386 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,626/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $620

Break-even live

Break-even rent $601

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $654	-5% $637	+0% $620	+5% $603	+10% $586
Rent	-10% $511	-5% $566	+0% $620	+5% $675	+10% $730
Rate	-1.0pp $651	-0.5pp $636	base $620	+0.5pp $605	+1.0pp $589

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   This brick house offers three bedrooms, three bathrooms, and almost 1,600 square feet of single-level living space. The bedrooms have hardwood floors, and there may be additional hardwood beneath the carpeting. Outside, you'll find a spacious driveway in the front and a cement patio in the backyard. The home sits on a corner lot in Saginaw.

2. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   This brick house offers three bedrooms, three bathrooms, and almost 1,600 square feet of single-level living space. The bedrooms have hardwood floors, and there may be additional hardwood beneath the carpeting. Outside, you'll find a spacious driveway in the front and a cement patio in the backyard. The home sits on a corner lot in Saginaw.

3. 2026-04-24
   price $59,900 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   This brick house offers three bedrooms, three bathrooms, and almost 1,600 square feet of single-level living space. The bedrooms have hardwood floors, and there may be additional hardwood beneath the carpeting. Outside, you'll find a spacious driveway in the front and a cement patio in the backyard. The home sits on a corner lot in Saginaw.

4. 2026-04-23
   price $59,900
5. 2026-04-05
   listed $69,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   This brick house offers three bedrooms, three bathrooms, and almost 1,600 square feet of single-level living space. The bedrooms have hardwood floors, and there may be additional hardwood beneath the carpeting. Outside, you'll find a spacious driveway in the front and a cement patio in the backyard. The home sits on a corner lot in Saginaw.

6. 2026-04-05
   listed $69,900 Active 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   This brick house offers three bedrooms, three bathrooms, and almost 1,600 square feet of single-level living space. The bedrooms have hardwood floors, and there may be additional hardwood beneath the carpeting. Outside, you'll find a spacious driveway in the front and a cement patio in the backyard. The home sits on a corner lot in Saginaw.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,626 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,626 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,632
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$1,626
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,331
• − Management: −$1,331
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $6,948
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,667
• After-tax cash flow: $5,777/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saginaw School District
• NCES district ID: 2630390
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $28,940
• Composite: 19.6/100
• National rank: #8755
• State rank: #444 of 540 in MI

Livability — Saginaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #15424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saginaw, MI
• City population: 54,884
• Population (ZIP): 32,069

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.46%
• Current HPI: 197.3359
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-08 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $59,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $59,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-05 Listed $69,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-05 Listed $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,626 · -31.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.