15 Charles St · Lorenz Park, NY 12534

$410,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,521 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1950 Est $359k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.1/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bath Cape w ground floor bed and bath! Great details throughout; moldings, crystal door knobs, 9 foot ceilings, all natural wood and stone flooring, custom built in bookcases in living room and primary bedroom. spacious mudroom with built-in storage/seating, custom chef's kitchen with restaurant stove, full freezer/full refrigerator, and butcher block island; primary spa bathroom with separate spa jet tub and shower with teak wood seat, body jets and steam sauna (both with light therapy); newer roof, energy efficient gas boiler heating system with multi-zones and radiant floor heat in primary bath, newer on demand hot water heater system, double size lot with deck and spacious backyard. 10' X 20' storage shed. Ample off-street parking.

Key facts

• Primary spa bathroom
• Radiant floor heat
• Built 1950

Tags

• GROUND FLOOR BED AND BATH
• CUSTOM BUILT IN BOOKCASES
• CUSTOM CHEF'S KITCHEN
• PRIMARY SPA BATHROOM
• ENERGY EFFICIENT GAS BOILER
• RADIANT FLOOR HEAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $410k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $624 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $410k).
• Recommended offer: $385k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#498 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hudson City School District (town): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #494 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Montgomery C Smith Elementary School (math 36% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,409 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 723 students, 65% FRL); Hudson High School (math 82% / reading 84%, grade A, #435 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 454 students, 57% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 62% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Hudson City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,387/mo this rent would consume 72% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 1083% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $44k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $41k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $115k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$70k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($385k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $385,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.53%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $358,956
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 Oakwood Blvd	0.04mi	4/1.5	1,570 (+3%)	8mo	$350,000	$223	82
9 E Marie St	0.43mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,421 (-7%)	5mo	$342,000	$241	54
84 Harry Howard Ave	0.58mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,500 (-1%)	11mo	$325,000	$217	52
13 James St	0.57mi	4/1.5	1,702 (+12%)	2mo	$402,500	$236	48
12 Fabiano Blvd	0.54mi	4/1.5	1,660 (+9%)	10mo	$315,000	$190	48
65 Green Street St	0.57mi	4/1.5	1,700 (+12%)	10mo	$442,500	$260	41
6 Harry Howard Ave	0.72mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,428 (-6%)	8mo	$630,000	$441	41
9 Greenport Pkwy	0.48mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,300 (-14%)	10mo	$360,000	$277	34
10 Riverview Avenue Blvd	0.72mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,324 (-13%)	10mo	$290,000	$219	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $286,323
• Equity at exit: $369,360

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.57×
• Total profit: $869,476
• Equity at exit: $796,540

Cash invested: $114,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12534

• Home prices YoY: 5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.9%
• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,387 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax from tax record: −$520 /mo · $6,244/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$921
• Net cashflow: $624

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,597

Max offer price $410,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,500
• Closing costs: $12,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
823-825 Columbia St Unit 3 Hudson, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,400	$2.18	43d	1	0.67mi
76 N 7th St Hudson, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	837	$3,600	$4.30	14d	47	0.68mi
437 State St Hudson, NY	3.0	3.0	1800	$8,000	$4.44	43d	1	0.87mi
227 Warren St Unit 3 Hudson, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$2,600	$1.86	23d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2025-03-17
   soldstatus $390,000
2. 2025-03-08
   status Pending
3. 2025-03-05
   soldstatus $390,000 780-char remark

   Show marketing remark (780 chars)

   Charming and spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bath Cape w ground floor bed and bath! Great details throughout; moldings, crystal door knobs, 9 foot ceilings, all natural wood and stone flooring, custom built in bookcases in living room and primary bedroom. spacious mudroom with built-in storage/seating, custom chef's kitchen with restaurant stove, full freezer/full refrigerator, and butcher block island; primary spa bathroom with separate spa jet tub and shower with teak wood seat, body jets and steam sauna (both with light therapy); newer roof, energy efficient gas boiler heating system with multi-zones and radiant floor heat in primary bath, newer on demand hot water heater system, double size lot with deck and spacious backyard. 10' X 20' storage shed. Ample off-street parking.

4. 2024-12-11
   listed $410,000 Active
5. 2024-12-05
   listed $410,000 780-char remark

   Show marketing remark (780 chars)

   Charming and spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bath Cape w ground floor bed and bath! Great details throughout; moldings, crystal door knobs, 9 foot ceilings, all natural wood and stone flooring, custom built in bookcases in living room and primary bedroom. spacious mudroom with built-in storage/seating, custom chef's kitchen with restaurant stove, full freezer/full refrigerator, and butcher block island; primary spa bathroom with separate spa jet tub and shower with teak wood seat, body jets and steam sauna (both with light therapy); newer roof, energy efficient gas boiler heating system with multi-zones and radiant floor heat in primary bath, newer on demand hot water heater system, double size lot with deck and spacious backyard. 10' X 20' storage shed. Ample off-street parking.

6. 2017-10-16
   soldstatus $235,000
7. 2017-10-10
   soldstatus $235,000 512-char remark

   Show marketing remark (512 chars)

   Turn-key spacious 4 bedroom (master 'suite'), 2 bath New England Cape Cod with original 1950s charm: clapboard siding, full wood trim detail, moldings and crystal door knobs, 9 foot ceilings, all natural wood and stone flooring throughout; new custom chef's kitchen with restaurant stove, full freezer/full refrigerator, and butcher block island; new spa master bathroom with separate spa jet tub and shower with teak wood body jets and steam sauna (both with light therapy); all wood custom built ins. new roof,

8. 2017-10-10
   soldstatus $235,000

   Show marketing remark (512 chars)

   Turn-key spacious 4 bedroom (master 'suite'), 2 bath New England Cape Cod with original 1950s charm: clapboard siding, full wood trim detail, moldings and crystal door knobs, 9 foot ceilings, all natural wood and stone flooring throughout; new custom chef's kitchen with restaurant stove, full freezer/full refrigerator, and butcher block island; new spa master bathroom with separate spa jet tub and shower with teak wood body jets and steam sauna (both with light therapy); all wood custom built ins. new roof,

9. 2017-03-27
   listed $235,000 512-char remark

   Show marketing remark (512 chars)

   Turn-key spacious 4 bedroom (master 'suite'), 2 bath New England Cape Cod with original 1950s charm: clapboard siding, full wood trim detail, moldings and crystal door knobs, 9 foot ceilings, all natural wood and stone flooring throughout; new custom chef's kitchen with restaurant stove, full freezer/full refrigerator, and butcher block island; new spa master bathroom with separate spa jet tub and shower with teak wood body jets and steam sauna (both with light therapy); all wood custom built ins. new roof,

10. 2017-03-27
    listed $235,000

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Turn-key spacious 4 bedroom (master 'suite'), 2 bath New England Cape Cod with original 1950s charm: clapboard siding, full wood trim detail, moldings and crystal door knobs, 9 foot ceilings, all natural wood and stone flooring throughout; new custom chef's kitchen with restaurant stove, full freezer/full refrigerator, and butcher block island; new spa master bathroom with separate spa jet tub and shower with teak wood body jets and steam sauna (both with light therapy); all wood custom built ins. new roof,

11. 2007-03-26
    soldstatus $175,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,244 · $520/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,587 · $549/mo
• Expected delta: +$342/yr (+$29/mo · 5.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,644
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,966
• − Property taxes: −$6,244
• − Insurance: −$2,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,211
• − Management: −$4,211
• − Depreciation: −$11,927
• Taxable income: $1,033
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$248
• After-tax cash flow: $7,245/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hudson City School District
• NCES district ID: 3614940
• Math proficiency: 38% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,663
• Composite: 36.03/100
• National rank: #4779
• State rank: #494 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lorenz Park

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #498
• US rank: #8738

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lorenz Park, NY
• County: Columbia County · 17,176 people
• City population: 17,176
• Metro: Hudson, NY
• Population (ZIP): 17,176
• Household income: $72,741
• Rent vs Own: 36.4% rent · 63.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1083.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.98%
• Current HPI: 490.0412
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.88%
• Metro: Hudson, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+122.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $390,000 Public Records
• 2025-03-08 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-05 Sold (MLS) $390,000 HVCRMLS
• 2024-12-11 Listed $410,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-05 Listed $410,000 HVCRMLS
• 2017-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 2017-10-10 Sold (MLS) $235,000 HVCRMLS
• 2017-10-10 Sold (MLS) $235,000 Global MLS
• 2017-03-27 Listed $235,000 HVCRMLS
• 2017-03-27 Listed $235,000 Global MLS
• 2007-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,244 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.