4254 Parker · Twentynine Palms, CA 92277

$174,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,166 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1957 5.00 ac lot $149/sqft · 32% below area Est $272k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fixer needs TLC so come finish the job. Properties in this area are popular because the roads are maintained and graded all the way to the property and you can get amazon deliveries. Home needs a walls in to be done. Completed already are septic, leech, Windows, Fenced lot, electric panel for home and well, well is complete and all new pump and electric and it does 15 GPM. Lot is graded and clear, roof is good, rough plumbing and electrical done. Needs drywall, cabinets, floors, sinks lighting. CASH or HARD MONEY only. Comp sold for 385k

Key facts

• New pump
• Well
• Rough plumbing

Tags

• FENCED LOT
• ELECTRIC PANEL
• WELL
• NEW PUMP
• GRADED LOT
• ROUGH PLUMBING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $174k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $123 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (7.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.3% in Twentynine Palms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#622 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, employment D-.
• Morongo Unified (town): math 15% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 517 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 734 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $150k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,992 (7.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.02%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,545
• List price: $174,000
• Delta: -35.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
86311 Sampson Ln	0.23mi	2/1.0	1,128 (-3%)	16mo	$150,000	$133	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-18,005
• Equity at exit: $25,944

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $4,422
• Equity at exit: $15,044

Cash invested: $48,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92277

• Home prices YoY: -3.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 734
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,610 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$912
• Tax from tax record: −$164 /mo · $1,970/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,455

Max offer price $174,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,500
• Closing costs: $5,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,000 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,000 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $174,000 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $174,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $174,000 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $174,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   pricedays on market $174,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $175,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-05-08
   price $175,000 543-char remark

   Show marketing remark (543 chars)

   Fixer needs TLC so come finish the job. Properties in this area are popular because the roads are maintained and graded all the way to the property and you can get amazon deliveries. Home needs a walls in to be done. Completed already are septic, leech, Windows, Fenced lot, electric panel for home and well, well is complete and all new pump and electric and it does 15 GPM. Lot is graded and clear, roof is good, rough plumbing and electrical done. Needs drywall, cabinets, floors, sinks lighting. CASH or HARD MONEY only. Comp sold for 385k

10. 2026-04-24
    price $179,000 543-char remark

    Show marketing remark (543 chars)

    Fixer needs TLC so come finish the job. Properties in this area are popular because the roads are maintained and graded all the way to the property and you can get amazon deliveries. Home needs a walls in to be done. Completed already are septic, leech, Windows, Fenced lot, electric panel for home and well, well is complete and all new pump and electric and it does 15 GPM. Lot is graded and clear, roof is good, rough plumbing and electrical done. Needs drywall, cabinets, floors, sinks lighting. CASH or HARD MONEY only. Comp sold for 385k

11. 2026-04-07
    price $189,000 543-char remark

    Show marketing remark (543 chars)

    Fixer needs TLC so come finish the job. Properties in this area are popular because the roads are maintained and graded all the way to the property and you can get amazon deliveries. Home needs a walls in to be done. Completed already are septic, leech, Windows, Fenced lot, electric panel for home and well, well is complete and all new pump and electric and it does 15 GPM. Lot is graded and clear, roof is good, rough plumbing and electrical done. Needs drywall, cabinets, floors, sinks lighting. CASH or HARD MONEY only. Comp sold for 385k

12. 2026-03-19
    listed $189,900 Active 543-char remark

    Show marketing remark (543 chars)

    Fixer needs TLC so come finish the job. Properties in this area are popular because the roads are maintained and graded all the way to the property and you can get amazon deliveries. Home needs a walls in to be done. Completed already are septic, leech, Windows, Fenced lot, electric panel for home and well, well is complete and all new pump and electric and it does 15 GPM. Lot is graded and clear, roof is good, rough plumbing and electrical done. Needs drywall, cabinets, floors, sinks lighting. CASH or HARD MONEY only. Comp sold for 385k

13. 2024-01-08
    soldstatus $150,000 Sold 622-char remark

    Show marketing remark (622 chars)

    5 ACRES OF LAND and a 2 bedroom/1 bathroom home in Twentynine Palms, ready for you to make your own. Investor special, just needs TLC. Close to Joshua Tree National Park, which makes this a perfect short term rental. There is a detached structure that can potentially be converted into an ADU to bring in additional rental income or make it an art/workout/game room for a more desirable short term rental experience! Rent rates for STR make this purchase price crush the 1% rule for investors looking to cash flow. Newer windows, newer roof, ready for an interior remodel and someone's creative touches. Take a look today!

14. 2024-01-08
    soldstatus $150,000

    Show marketing remark (622 chars)

    5 ACRES OF LAND and a 2 bedroom/1 bathroom home in Twentynine Palms, ready for you to make your own. Investor special, just needs TLC. Close to Joshua Tree National Park, which makes this a perfect short term rental. There is a detached structure that can potentially be converted into an ADU to bring in additional rental income or make it an art/workout/game room for a more desirable short term rental experience! Rent rates for STR make this purchase price crush the 1% rule for investors looking to cash flow. Newer windows, newer roof, ready for an interior remodel and someone's creative touches. Take a look today!

15. 2023-12-04
    status Pending 622-char remark

    Show marketing remark (622 chars)

    5 ACRES OF LAND and a 2 bedroom/1 bathroom home in Twentynine Palms, ready for you to make your own. Investor special, just needs TLC. Close to Joshua Tree National Park, which makes this a perfect short term rental. There is a detached structure that can potentially be converted into an ADU to bring in additional rental income or make it an art/workout/game room for a more desirable short term rental experience! Rent rates for STR make this purchase price crush the 1% rule for investors looking to cash flow. Newer windows, newer roof, ready for an interior remodel and someone's creative touches. Take a look today!

16. 2023-11-28
    historical

    Show marketing remark (622 chars)

    5 ACRES OF LAND and a 2 bedroom/1 bathroom home in Twentynine Palms, ready for you to make your own. Investor special, just needs TLC. Close to Joshua Tree National Park, which makes this a perfect short term rental. There is a detached structure that can potentially be converted into an ADU to bring in additional rental income or make it an art/workout/game room for a more desirable short term rental experience! Rent rates for STR make this purchase price crush the 1% rule for investors looking to cash flow. Newer windows, newer roof, ready for an interior remodel and someone's creative touches. Take a look today!

17. 2023-11-28
    listed $155,000 Active 622-char remark

    Show marketing remark (622 chars)

    5 ACRES OF LAND and a 2 bedroom/1 bathroom home in Twentynine Palms, ready for you to make your own. Investor special, just needs TLC. Close to Joshua Tree National Park, which makes this a perfect short term rental. There is a detached structure that can potentially be converted into an ADU to bring in additional rental income or make it an art/workout/game room for a more desirable short term rental experience! Rent rates for STR make this purchase price crush the 1% rule for investors looking to cash flow. Newer windows, newer roof, ready for an interior remodel and someone's creative touches. Take a look today!

18. 2023-11-27
    status Active
19. 2023-11-14
    status Pending
20. 2023-11-01
    price $169,995
21. 2023-10-26
    listed $180,000 Active
22. 2023-10-26
    historical
23. 2023-10-03
    listed $180,000 Active
24. 2023-09-29
    soldstatus $122,000
25. 2017-08-15
    soldstatus $107,500
26. 2001-09-25
    historical
27. 2001-09-06
    listed $28,000
28. 2001-08-26
    historical
29. 2001-05-25
    listed $28,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,970 · $164/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,970 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,319
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,747
• − Property taxes: −$1,970
• − Insurance: −$870
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,546
• − Management: −$1,546
• − Depreciation: −$5,062
• Taxable loss: −$1,420
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$341
• After-tax cash flow: $1,813/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morongo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625860
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,399
• Composite: 22.19/100
• National rank: #8156
• State rank: #395 of 517 in CA

Livability — Twentynine Palms

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #622
• US rank: #19731

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 26,277
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 26,277
• Household income: $60,901
• Rent vs Own: 56.7% rent · 43.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1057.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Two or more races 24% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 9% Asian 4% Pacific Islander 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.15%
• Current HPI: 380.5083
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.45%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+525.0% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $175,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $179,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $189,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $189,900 CRMLS
• 2024-01-08 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2024-01-08 Sold (MLS) $150,000 SDMLS
• 2023-12-04 Pending — SDMLS
• 2023-11-28 Listed $155,000 SDMLS
• 2023-11-28 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2023-11-27 Relisted — SDMLS
• 2023-11-14 Pending — SDMLS
• 2023-11-01 Price Changed $169,995 SDMLS
• 2023-10-26 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2023-10-26 Listed $180,000 SDMLS
• 2023-10-03 Listed $180,000 SDMLS
• 2023-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $122,000 Public Records
• 2017-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $107,500 Public Records
• 2001-09-25 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2001-09-06 Listed $28,000 GPSMLS
• 2001-08-26 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2001-05-25 Listed $28,000 GPSMLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,970 · +21.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.