3850 Bower Rd · Cave Spring, VA 24018

$375,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,712 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1970 0.30 ac lot $219/sqft · 23% above area Est $368k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Space, light, and room to make it your own. This charming 5-bedroom, 2-bath split-level offers the kind of layout that just works -- with distinct levels that naturally separate living, working, and relaxing spaces. Sunlight pours through the home, showcasing every square foot of its thoughtful design. Step outside to a fully fenced, flat backyard that's as private as it is versatile -- whether you're envisioning a garden, a play area, an entertainer's haven, or simply a quiet retreat. With five bedrooms and room to personalize throughout, this home is ready to grow with you. Comfort inside. Possibility outside. Come see it for yourself.

Key facts

• Multi-level layout
• Split-level home
• 0.3 acre lot

Tags

• SPLIT-LEVEL HOME
• MULTI-LEVEL LAYOUT
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-144 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $350k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (25.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $280k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.4% in Cave Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#113 in VA, #3,513 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Roanoke County Public School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #9 of 131 in VA (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Green Valley Elementary (math 63% / reading 75%, grade A-, #351 of 1,108 statewide, top 32%, 518 students, 43% FRL); Hidden Valley Middle (math 76% / reading 83%, grade A+, #28 of 342 statewide, top 8%, 578 students, 26% FRL); Hidden Valley High (math 90% / reading 92%, grade A+, #5 of 319 statewide, top 1%, 830 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 339 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 360 units permitted in Roanoke County in 2024 (228 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Roanoke County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $240k; list at $375k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $279,996 (25.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.64%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $367,542
• List price: $375,000
• Delta: 2.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3924 Thames Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,719 (+0%)	12mo	$334,500	$195	78
3819 Hyde Park Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,797 (+5%)	12mo	$399,000	$222	75
4029 Kentland Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,661 (-3%)	11mo	$358,000	$216	71
2604 Mcvitty Rd	0.43mi	4/2.0	1,738 (+2%)	11mo	$373,000	$215	68
3912 Hyde Park Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,626 (-5%)	22mo	$323,000	$199	66
2540 Mcvitty Rd SW	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,929 (+13%)	2mo	$300,000	$156	58
3863 Kentland Dr	0.25mi	4/2.5	1,840 (+8%)	23mo	$310,000	$168	55
4230 Belford St SW	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (-4%)	8mo	$325,000	$197	50
4102 Mud Lick Rd SW	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,886 (+10%)	11mo	$359,950	$191	49
3516 Grandin Rd SW	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,555 (-9%)	7mo	$329,950	$212	44
3539 Grandin Rd SW	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,919 (+12%)	20mo	$387,000	$202	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-70,353
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-74,839
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24018

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,800 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$233 /mo · $2,793/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $-144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,982

Max offer price $349,632

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $69	-5% $-37	+0% $-144	+5% $-250	+10% $-356
Rent	-10% $-365	-5% $-254	+0% $-144	+5% $-33	+10% $78
Rate	-1.0pp $45	-0.5pp $-48	base $-144	+0.5pp $-241	+1.0pp $-340

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5204 Lakeland Dr Roanoke, VA	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,595	$1.30	46d	1	0.90mi
5220 Lakeland Dr Roanoke, VA	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,695	$1.35	46d	1	0.91mi
3419 Evergreen Ln SW Roanoke, VA	4.0	3.5	2240	$3,195	$1.43	45d	1	1.15mi
3423 Evergreen Ln SW Roanoke, VA	4.0	3.5	2240	$3,195	$1.43	45d	1	1.15mi
3427 Evergreen Ln SW Roanoke, VA	4.0	3.5	2240	$3,195	$1.43	45d	1	1.16mi
2911 Evergreen Ln SW Roanoke, VA	4.0	3.5	2240	$3,195	$1.43	22d	1	1.22mi
2923 Evergreen Ln SW Roanoke, VA	4.0	3.5	2240	$3,195	$1.43	22d	1	1.22mi
2917 Evergreen Ln SW Roanoke, VA	4.0	3.5	2240	$3,195	$1.43	22d	1	1.22mi
3620 Manassas Dr Roanoke, VA	3.0	1.5	1200	$2,300	$1.92	45d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 645-char remark

   Show marketing remark (645 chars)

   Space, light, and room to make it your own. This charming 5-bedroom, 2-bath split-level offers the kind of layout that just works -- with distinct levels that naturally separate living, working, and relaxing spaces. Sunlight pours through the home, showcasing every square foot of its thoughtful design. Step outside to a fully fenced, flat backyard that's as private as it is versatile -- whether you're envisioning a garden, a play area, an entertainer's haven, or simply a quiet retreat. With five bedrooms and room to personalize throughout, this home is ready to grow with you. Comfort inside. Possibility outside. Come see it for yourself.

2. 2026-04-23
   status Active 645-char remark

   Show marketing remark (645 chars)

   Space, light, and room to make it your own. This charming 5-bedroom, 2-bath split-level offers the kind of layout that just works -- with distinct levels that naturally separate living, working, and relaxing spaces. Sunlight pours through the home, showcasing every square foot of its thoughtful design. Step outside to a fully fenced, flat backyard that's as private as it is versatile -- whether you're envisioning a garden, a play area, an entertainer's haven, or simply a quiet retreat. With five bedrooms and room to personalize throughout, this home is ready to grow with you. Comfort inside. Possibility outside. Come see it for yourself.

3. 2026-04-23
   price $375,000 645-char remark

   Show marketing remark (645 chars)

   Space, light, and room to make it your own. This charming 5-bedroom, 2-bath split-level offers the kind of layout that just works -- with distinct levels that naturally separate living, working, and relaxing spaces. Sunlight pours through the home, showcasing every square foot of its thoughtful design. Step outside to a fully fenced, flat backyard that's as private as it is versatile -- whether you're envisioning a garden, a play area, an entertainer's haven, or simply a quiet retreat. With five bedrooms and room to personalize throughout, this home is ready to grow with you. Comfort inside. Possibility outside. Come see it for yourself.

4. 2026-04-16
   historical 645-char remark

   Show marketing remark (645 chars)

   Space, light, and room to make it your own. This charming 5-bedroom, 2-bath split-level offers the kind of layout that just works -- with distinct levels that naturally separate living, working, and relaxing spaces. Sunlight pours through the home, showcasing every square foot of its thoughtful design. Step outside to a fully fenced, flat backyard that's as private as it is versatile -- whether you're envisioning a garden, a play area, an entertainer's haven, or simply a quiet retreat. With five bedrooms and room to personalize throughout, this home is ready to grow with you. Comfort inside. Possibility outside. Come see it for yourself.

5. 2026-03-23
   price $380,000 645-char remark

   Show marketing remark (645 chars)

   Space, light, and room to make it your own. This charming 5-bedroom, 2-bath split-level offers the kind of layout that just works -- with distinct levels that naturally separate living, working, and relaxing spaces. Sunlight pours through the home, showcasing every square foot of its thoughtful design. Step outside to a fully fenced, flat backyard that's as private as it is versatile -- whether you're envisioning a garden, a play area, an entertainer's haven, or simply a quiet retreat. With five bedrooms and room to personalize throughout, this home is ready to grow with you. Comfort inside. Possibility outside. Come see it for yourself.

6. 2026-03-02
   price $390,000 645-char remark

   Show marketing remark (645 chars)

   Space, light, and room to make it your own. This charming 5-bedroom, 2-bath split-level offers the kind of layout that just works -- with distinct levels that naturally separate living, working, and relaxing spaces. Sunlight pours through the home, showcasing every square foot of its thoughtful design. Step outside to a fully fenced, flat backyard that's as private as it is versatile -- whether you're envisioning a garden, a play area, an entertainer's haven, or simply a quiet retreat. With five bedrooms and room to personalize throughout, this home is ready to grow with you. Comfort inside. Possibility outside. Come see it for yourself.

7. 2026-02-18
   price $392,500 645-char remark

   Show marketing remark (645 chars)

   Space, light, and room to make it your own. This charming 5-bedroom, 2-bath split-level offers the kind of layout that just works -- with distinct levels that naturally separate living, working, and relaxing spaces. Sunlight pours through the home, showcasing every square foot of its thoughtful design. Step outside to a fully fenced, flat backyard that's as private as it is versatile -- whether you're envisioning a garden, a play area, an entertainer's haven, or simply a quiet retreat. With five bedrooms and room to personalize throughout, this home is ready to grow with you. Comfort inside. Possibility outside. Come see it for yourself.

8. 2026-01-31
   listed $395,000 Active 645-char remark

   Show marketing remark (645 chars)

   Space, light, and room to make it your own. This charming 5-bedroom, 2-bath split-level offers the kind of layout that just works -- with distinct levels that naturally separate living, working, and relaxing spaces. Sunlight pours through the home, showcasing every square foot of its thoughtful design. Step outside to a fully fenced, flat backyard that's as private as it is versatile -- whether you're envisioning a garden, a play area, an entertainer's haven, or simply a quiet retreat. With five bedrooms and room to personalize throughout, this home is ready to grow with you. Comfort inside. Possibility outside. Come see it for yourself.

9. 2025-08-27
   soldstatus $240,000
10. 1995-09-01
    soldstatus $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,793 · $233/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,075 · $256/mo
• Expected delta: +$282/yr (+$23/mo · 10.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$2,793
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,688
• − Management: −$2,688
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$8,360
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,006
• After-tax cash flow: $283/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roanoke County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103330
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,526
• Composite: 64.08/100
• National rank: #578
• State rank: #9 of 131 in VA

Livability — Cave Spring

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #3513

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cave Spring, VA
• County: Roanoke County · 67,305 people
• Metro: Roanoke, VA
• Population (ZIP): 38,720
• Household income: $90,885
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 495.0

Population outlook (Roanoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,162 people
• By 2030: 99,793 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 101,965 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 103,328 · +5.3%
• By 2075: 108,641 · +10.7%
• By 2100: 104,845 · +6.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Asian 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Roanoke

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.5) · D 38.2% · R 60.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: -21.1pp · 2024: -22.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.5 2020: R+21.8 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+25.6 2008: R+21.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -266.18%
• Current HPI: 176.0558
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.88%
• Metro: Roanoke, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+341.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — MLSRV
• 2026-04-23 Relisted — MLSRV
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $375,000 MLSRV
• 2026-04-16 Listing Removed — MLSRV
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $380,000 MLSRV
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $390,000 MLSRV
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $392,500 MLSRV
• 2026-01-31 Listed $395,000 MLSRV
• 2025-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 1995-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,793 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.